Development of general methodology for estimating complex time series models. This project will develop novel methods and models for analysing socio-economic and financial data measured over time and will illustrate them with applications. The methods will allow for more efficient and more accurate processing of information and better forecasting which will facilitate better management and more timely policy response.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE170100787
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$331,000.00
Summary
Misspecification in models of economic behaviour. This project aims to develop a robust method for estimation and inference with misspecified economic models. Economic models are designed to test hypotheses about economic behaviour and to estimate key parameters, but their validity and accuracy critically depend on the assumption that the model is correctly specified, which is often doubtful. This project will reparametrize the model to allow for misspecification. The project aims to help modell ....Misspecification in models of economic behaviour. This project aims to develop a robust method for estimation and inference with misspecified economic models. Economic models are designed to test hypotheses about economic behaviour and to estimate key parameters, but their validity and accuracy critically depend on the assumption that the model is correctly specified, which is often doubtful. This project will reparametrize the model to allow for misspecification. The project aims to help modellers produce results that better inform decision-makers and help them make more reliable decisions.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100795
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$365,000.00
Summary
New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important appl ....New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important applications are also considered: one investigates how the zero lower bound on interest rates affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism; and, the other examines how uncertainties about monetary and fiscal policy affect economic growth and inflation. This project will have strong practical significance for conducting macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to ....Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to provide valuable information for policymakers for formulating macroeconomic policies. They can be used to better assess the credibility of monetary policy and shed light on the causes of low inflation rate in developed economies.Read moreRead less
Bayesian Inference for Flexible Parametric Multivariate Econometric Modelling. The anticipated outcomes include the development of enhanced multivariate econometric models and innovative computationally intensive methods for their estimation. These models are used in numerous and diverse applications which are data-intensive and where more complete models will greatly enhance data-based decision-making. Results include improved information use in the wholesale electricity markets, in financial m ....Bayesian Inference for Flexible Parametric Multivariate Econometric Modelling. The anticipated outcomes include the development of enhanced multivariate econometric models and innovative computationally intensive methods for their estimation. These models are used in numerous and diverse applications which are data-intensive and where more complete models will greatly enhance data-based decision-making. Results include improved information use in the wholesale electricity markets, in financial market investment decision-making and for the assessment of the impact of internet advertising.Read moreRead less
Economic analysis of inter-relationships between private health insurance and health expenditures. Health care services involve a complex mix of private and public funding and provision. The links between policy initiatives, such as private health insurance incentives, and outcomes are often unclear. This project involves a detailed economic and econometric investigation of individual health insurance and health care consumption decisions and their interaction, and the resulting impact on health ....Economic analysis of inter-relationships between private health insurance and health expenditures. Health care services involve a complex mix of private and public funding and provision. The links between policy initiatives, such as private health insurance incentives, and outcomes are often unclear. This project involves a detailed economic and econometric investigation of individual health insurance and health care consumption decisions and their interaction, and the resulting impact on health care utilisation and expenditure across public and private sectors. The significance of the project lies in its use of innovative methods to combine several data sources, and in the potential for the resulting models to predict the impact of future health policy initiatives.
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Robust Empirical Analysis of Poverty and Inequality in Australia. The project aims to improve our understanding of economic poverty and inequality in Australia, and contribute new method to the field of distributional analysis. The empirical analysis of consumption poverty and inequality will highlight the critical methodological assumptions underlying our perceptions of poverty, and provide an evaluation of the effectiveness of a range of programs targeted to the poor. The analysis of economic ....Robust Empirical Analysis of Poverty and Inequality in Australia. The project aims to improve our understanding of economic poverty and inequality in Australia, and contribute new method to the field of distributional analysis. The empirical analysis of consumption poverty and inequality will highlight the critical methodological assumptions underlying our perceptions of poverty, and provide an evaluation of the effectiveness of a range of programs targeted to the poor. The analysis of economic inequality in Australia will determine if recent trends are due to increasing globalisation, and whether national programs were effective in ameliorating international influences. This research will ultimately contribute to more effective poverty alleviation and income support programs.Read moreRead less
High-dimensional models with a change point. This project aims to provide a set of estimation and inference procedures for high dimensional quantile regression. Statistical models of threshold regression with change or tipping points are used to explore social issues, including changes in oil and gas prices, effective dosage of drugs and the racial mix in neighbourhoods. To date, using low numbers of variables, the findings have been limited. Big data makes it possible and desirable to solve mor ....High-dimensional models with a change point. This project aims to provide a set of estimation and inference procedures for high dimensional quantile regression. Statistical models of threshold regression with change or tipping points are used to explore social issues, including changes in oil and gas prices, effective dosage of drugs and the racial mix in neighbourhoods. To date, using low numbers of variables, the findings have been limited. Big data makes it possible and desirable to solve more detailed models to provide more accurate results. The quality and accuracy of the project’s results are expected to help governments devise well informed and appropriate policies for social issues.Read moreRead less
Flexible Models and Methods for Longitudinal Data. The availability of increasingly large data sets offers the potential to improve understandings of many phenomena. However, without models for these phenomenon and methods to analyse the data generated by them, information contained in such data cannot be extracted. This project aims to advance statistical methods and models for analysing data that are collected on a large number of individuals at many time points. In particular, data collected ....Flexible Models and Methods for Longitudinal Data. The availability of increasingly large data sets offers the potential to improve understandings of many phenomena. However, without models for these phenomenon and methods to analyse the data generated by them, information contained in such data cannot be extracted. This project aims to advance statistical methods and models for analysing data that are collected on a large number of individuals at many time points. In particular, data collected from mobile phone applications will be used to understand the effect that training regimes have on cognitive functioning and how these effects vary with individual characteristics.Read moreRead less
Understanding and Modeling Individual Choices in Applied Economics. The fellowship will create a critical mass of researchers in choice modeling theory and methods in areas that Australia needs to sustain economic progress and plan for the future. It will significantly advance knowledge in several major areas: design of health insurance markets; tests for adverse selection in insurance markets; ability of people to plan for retirement (superannuation choices); ability of people to plan and choos ....Understanding and Modeling Individual Choices in Applied Economics. The fellowship will create a critical mass of researchers in choice modeling theory and methods in areas that Australia needs to sustain economic progress and plan for the future. It will significantly advance knowledge in several major areas: design of health insurance markets; tests for adverse selection in insurance markets; ability of people to plan for retirement (superannuation choices); ability of people to plan and choose in dynamic environments; and decisions to adopt new technologies/products in evolving technology markets. The outcome will be new ways to understand and predict choices that can significantly improve practices in business and other organisations.Read moreRead less