Inference in partially non-stationary time series models. Economic theories typically specify the long-run relationship between economic variables. However, researchers usually examine the long-run features of the data by fitting a restrictive class of models using criteria that have only proven useful for short-term forecasting. In this project we consider alternative models and modelling strategies that are appropriate for the study of the long-run. We also develop computer intensive (bootstra ....Inference in partially non-stationary time series models. Economic theories typically specify the long-run relationship between economic variables. However, researchers usually examine the long-run features of the data by fitting a restrictive class of models using criteria that have only proven useful for short-term forecasting. In this project we consider alternative models and modelling strategies that are appropriate for the study of the long-run. We also develop computer intensive (bootstrap) methods, which will provide a much-needed improvement over the existing (asymptotic) methods for making inference about the long-run. Our research will lead to more reliable models for long-term planning in business, industry and government.Read moreRead less
Vector ARMA Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: Some New Methodology and Algorithms. Economic variables are strongly related to each other, as well as being strongly related to their recent history. As a result, good dynamic multivariate models are crucial for effective policy making and forecasting in areas of vital national importance such as monetary and fiscal policy, environmental policy and tourism. Our project advances the frontiers of knowledge in multivariate time series modelling. The ....Vector ARMA Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: Some New Methodology and Algorithms. Economic variables are strongly related to each other, as well as being strongly related to their recent history. As a result, good dynamic multivariate models are crucial for effective policy making and forecasting in areas of vital national importance such as monetary and fiscal policy, environmental policy and tourism. Our project advances the frontiers of knowledge in multivariate time series modelling. The outcome of this project will be immediately useful for macroeconomic policy makers such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Treasury, and for industry bodies such as Tourism Australia. Read moreRead less
Macroeconomic and Financial Modelling in an Era of Extremes. This project aims to develop methods to allow workhorse models in economics and finance to better reflect tail events--low probability extreme events, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to address fundamental technical challenges in the estimation of such models, develop a coherent framework for counterfactual analysis of these models and propose methods to apply these models in a big-data environ ....Macroeconomic and Financial Modelling in an Era of Extremes. This project aims to develop methods to allow workhorse models in economics and finance to better reflect tail events--low probability extreme events, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to address fundamental technical challenges in the estimation of such models, develop a coherent framework for counterfactual analysis of these models and propose methods to apply these models in a big-data environment. Expected outcomes include new insights into the transmission of tail risks in the global economic and financial system. This should provide significant benefits, including guidance to Australian and international policymakers charged with maintaining stability in the face of extreme events.Read moreRead less
How do company announcements affect trading frequency in stocks? This project addresses the question of how financial markets respond to news by investigating how company announcements affect trading patterns in Australian banking stocks. Analysis will be based on new extensions to autoregressive conditional hazard (ACH) models, with research focussing on how to incorporate announcement variables into an ACH framework and how to modify standard ACH analysis to account for simultaneous transactio ....How do company announcements affect trading frequency in stocks? This project addresses the question of how financial markets respond to news by investigating how company announcements affect trading patterns in Australian banking stocks. Analysis will be based on new extensions to autoregressive conditional hazard (ACH) models, with research focussing on how to incorporate announcement variables into an ACH framework and how to modify standard ACH analysis to account for simultaneous transactions, market frictions and spillover effects. The results of this research will assist government and companies in choosing announcement times, aid traders in portfolio adjustment and will lead to a better understanding of the microstructure of Australian stock markets.Read moreRead less
Natural resources and ecosystem services in productivity measurement. This project aims to understand sources of productivity growth through addressing theoretical and practical problems in the economics of natural resources and ecosystem services. It will study the valuation of non-renewable resources and ecosystem services, acknowledging their contributions to economic activity and the effect on national income from their depletion and degradation. It will develop approaches to incorporating n ....Natural resources and ecosystem services in productivity measurement. This project aims to understand sources of productivity growth through addressing theoretical and practical problems in the economics of natural resources and ecosystem services. It will study the valuation of non-renewable resources and ecosystem services, acknowledging their contributions to economic activity and the effect on national income from their depletion and degradation. It will develop approaches to incorporating natural resource depletion and degradation into productivity analysis with the aim of better informing environmental, innovation and industry policy.Read moreRead less
Theory and Applications of Computer-Intensive Statistical Methods. The availability of powerful computing equipment has had a dramatic impact on statistical methods and thinking. It has motivated development of novel approaches to data analysis, whose conception
and appreciation, even their application, often demand sophisticated and complex theoretical methods. In this context, the project will develop new approaches to solving non-standard statistical problems. These techniques will eithe ....Theory and Applications of Computer-Intensive Statistical Methods. The availability of powerful computing equipment has had a dramatic impact on statistical methods and thinking. It has motivated development of novel approaches to data analysis, whose conception
and appreciation, even their application, often demand sophisticated and complex theoretical methods. In this context, the project will develop new approaches to solving non-standard statistical problems. These techniques will either have direct application to solving practical problems of national or community concern, or provide a better understanding of the nature of such problems.Read moreRead less
Electrochemically-sensitized luminescence: A new bio-detection paradigm. This project aims to create new science which will enable the development of a superior new class of bio-detection technique, suitable for medical diagnostics and other sensing applications. A multi-disciplinary approach will be taken, combining expertise in a number of fields to explore the use of electrical rather than traditional optical means to control energy transfer and luminescence in novel molecular and nanoparticl ....Electrochemically-sensitized luminescence: A new bio-detection paradigm. This project aims to create new science which will enable the development of a superior new class of bio-detection technique, suitable for medical diagnostics and other sensing applications. A multi-disciplinary approach will be taken, combining expertise in a number of fields to explore the use of electrical rather than traditional optical means to control energy transfer and luminescence in novel molecular and nanoparticle-based systems. It is expected that these advances will transform bio-analytical science by giving rise to innovative detection techniques which are low-cost, rapid and highly sensitive.Read moreRead less
Developing the capacity to model the impact of interventions that target high-risk drinking among young Australians. Alcohol use is a major contributing factor to social and health problems among young Australians. The project will inform the development of effective policy by providing multidisciplinary research evidence and the capacity to model how various interventions impact on the prevalence of alcohol-related problems.
Early-Stage Medical Diagnostics by Plasmon-Mediated Gas Sensing. This project will investigate the use plasmonic absorption of light in metal nanostructures to activate the selective oxidation/reduction of a gas molecule on a semiconductor nanoparticle. This concept will be used with the aim of developing a sensing technique capable of measuring ultra-low concentrations (ppb) of breath markers for lung cancer detection. It is expected that porous sensing films of semiconductor and metal nanopart ....Early-Stage Medical Diagnostics by Plasmon-Mediated Gas Sensing. This project will investigate the use plasmonic absorption of light in metal nanostructures to activate the selective oxidation/reduction of a gas molecule on a semiconductor nanoparticle. This concept will be used with the aim of developing a sensing technique capable of measuring ultra-low concentrations (ppb) of breath markers for lung cancer detection. It is expected that porous sensing films of semiconductor and metal nanoparticles with well-defined light absorption properties will be fabricated. Superior selectivity will be achieved by matching the wavelength of the absorbed light with the required activation energy for oxidation/reduction. Successful outcomes will enable multi-analyte fingerprint identification by on-chip devices with applications ranging from portable medical diagnostics to national security.Read moreRead less
Understanding dissipation, thermal conduction and diffusion in superionic conductors using ab initio nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulation. Lithium ion batteries are widely used in computers, cars and more recently in aircraft. However they may exhibit thermal runaway leading to fire. Recently these problems have grounded the fleet of Boeing 787 aircraft, worldwide. Understanding superionic conduction is of thus of considerable technological importance. The project will focus on understa ....Understanding dissipation, thermal conduction and diffusion in superionic conductors using ab initio nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulation. Lithium ion batteries are widely used in computers, cars and more recently in aircraft. However they may exhibit thermal runaway leading to fire. Recently these problems have grounded the fleet of Boeing 787 aircraft, worldwide. Understanding superionic conduction is of thus of considerable technological importance. The project will focus on understanding mass and heat flow in superionic conductors using a new molecular simulation technique that the team has recently developed. This technique combines nonequilibrium statistical mechanics and ab initio molecular dynamics simulation. The project will learn how heat is generated and conducted through these materials and how temperature influences these processes, and how heat and mass flow couple together.Read moreRead less