Threshold models in micro-econometrics with applications to empirical models of health. The aim of this project is to develop and apply new statistical approaches to endogenously identify non-linear relationships between explanatory variable(s) and the response variable in non-linear econometric models and to illustrate these with applications important to empirical health economics. Literature proliferates in linear models with non-linear effects, but in health economics non-linear models domin ....Threshold models in micro-econometrics with applications to empirical models of health. The aim of this project is to develop and apply new statistical approaches to endogenously identify non-linear relationships between explanatory variable(s) and the response variable in non-linear econometric models and to illustrate these with applications important to empirical health economics. Literature proliferates in linear models with non-linear effects, but in health economics non-linear models dominate. This project will generalise these techniques to allow for various forms of the threshold variable(s), including categorical and continuous, endogenous and exogenous, and those measured with error.Read moreRead less
Improving likelihood estimators: theory and applications to analysing productivity and efficiency and forecasting of probability of economic recession. This project aims to improve one of the most popular statistical methods to empower applied researchers with a more reliable analytical tool. This project will develop mathematical theory and use it to analyse patterns of economic growth, productivity and efficiency of countries. This can be used to forecast probability of entering economic reces ....Improving likelihood estimators: theory and applications to analysing productivity and efficiency and forecasting of probability of economic recession. This project aims to improve one of the most popular statistical methods to empower applied researchers with a more reliable analytical tool. This project will develop mathematical theory and use it to analyse patterns of economic growth, productivity and efficiency of countries. This can be used to forecast probability of entering economic recession, with a focus on Australia.Read moreRead less
Understanding and Modelling Weather Derivatives in Australia for the Purpose of their Accurate Pricing: a Statistical and Econometric Investigation. Australia suffers some of the most adverse and extreme weather globally. Its government and industries, especially agriculture and electricity, stand to benefit from improved understanding of weather derivatives and capability to price them accurately. Tailored to Australian weather scenarios, weather derivatives will be tools to manage local risk f ....Understanding and Modelling Weather Derivatives in Australia for the Purpose of their Accurate Pricing: a Statistical and Econometric Investigation. Australia suffers some of the most adverse and extreme weather globally. Its government and industries, especially agriculture and electricity, stand to benefit from improved understanding of weather derivatives and capability to price them accurately. Tailored to Australian weather scenarios, weather derivatives will be tools to manage local risk factors, and increase global competitiveness by hedging against competitors' good weather-related advantage. The US weather derivative market, capitalised at over US$7.5b, began just 7 years ago; there is no organised Australian market. This project's smart techniques for improving pricing accuracy will support the development and vigorous growth of a local market.Read moreRead less
New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticip ....New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticipated outcomes of this project will be detailed knowledge of extremal behaviour in portfolios, improved methods for calibrating risk, advances in non-parametric methods in finance, a prototype practitioner toolkit for assessing risk, and high-calibre graduates to contribute to Australia's research capacity.Read moreRead less
Modelling Income Distributions over Space and Time: 1985-2010. The aim of this project is to develop and use interpolation and extrapolation methods, designed to overcome data scarcity, to estimate annual income distributions for countries, regions and the world for the period 1985 to 2010, facilitating measurement and comparison of changes in inequality, per capita income, poverty, and pro-poor growth, at national, regional and global levels. Reliable estimates of these welfare measures provide ....Modelling Income Distributions over Space and Time: 1985-2010. The aim of this project is to develop and use interpolation and extrapolation methods, designed to overcome data scarcity, to estimate annual income distributions for countries, regions and the world for the period 1985 to 2010, facilitating measurement and comparison of changes in inequality, per capita income, poverty, and pro-poor growth, at national, regional and global levels. Reliable estimates of these welfare measures provide valuable information for policy advisors and other researchers interested in growth and welfare of society.Read moreRead less
Understanding Dynamic Aspects of Economic Inequality. This project aims to study dynamic aspects of inequality in Australia by exploring the changes in labour and housing market conditions and their relation to the changes in the distribution of income and wealth over the last decade. The project also aims to develop new econometric techniques to examine the factors that are responsible for the changes in the distribution of income and wealth and a range of labour and housing market outcomes. Pa ....Understanding Dynamic Aspects of Economic Inequality. This project aims to study dynamic aspects of inequality in Australia by exploring the changes in labour and housing market conditions and their relation to the changes in the distribution of income and wealth over the last decade. The project also aims to develop new econometric techniques to examine the factors that are responsible for the changes in the distribution of income and wealth and a range of labour and housing market outcomes. Particular attention will be paid to the role of the changes in individual-specific characteristics (such as education, age, employment status, and occupation) and neighbourhood-specific characteristics (such as house prices and population ageing) in producing inequality.Read moreRead less
Advertising and Drinking: Does it Matter? The Health profession and various community groups have been demanding the government introduce new alcohol advertising policies that aim to reduce the social cost and misery associated with the misuse of alcohol (estimated to cost Australians about $8 billion, cause about 3,300 deaths and 72,000 hospitalisations annually) and to maintain the health and future well-being of Australians. This project will assess the impact of current advertising policies ....Advertising and Drinking: Does it Matter? The Health profession and various community groups have been demanding the government introduce new alcohol advertising policies that aim to reduce the social cost and misery associated with the misuse of alcohol (estimated to cost Australians about $8 billion, cause about 3,300 deaths and 72,000 hospitalisations annually) and to maintain the health and future well-being of Australians. This project will assess the impact of current advertising policies and the impact of a possible ban on alcohol advertising on the level of alcohol consumption in Australia. The results will be useful to the Australian government, the Australian community and the alcohol industry in developing new advertising policies that aim to reduce alcohol consumption.Read moreRead less
The Sustainability of Agricultural Productivity Growth in a Changing Environment: An International Perspective. The project could provide significant benefits to Australia. Australia is a dry continent with fragile natural resources, and a significant exporter of agricultural products. A sound knowledge of the factors that affect agricultural sustainability is crucial. Perhaps more importantly, identifying economic, environmental, social, institutional and political factors that influence agric ....The Sustainability of Agricultural Productivity Growth in a Changing Environment: An International Perspective. The project could provide significant benefits to Australia. Australia is a dry continent with fragile natural resources, and a significant exporter of agricultural products. A sound knowledge of the factors that affect agricultural sustainability is crucial. Perhaps more importantly, identifying economic, environmental, social, institutional and political factors that influence agricultural sustainability in other countries, especially our Asian neighbours, will provide valuable information to relevant agencies in designing strategies aimed at ensuring that these countries are stable and well fed. This is of particular importance in the current climate, with growing influences of terrorist organisations in places where poverty exists.Read moreRead less
Robust Productivity Measurement: An Econometric Distance Function Approach. Accurate measures of productivity are required in a range of economic analyses. For example, in the assessment of the success of microeconomic reforms, or in price-cap regulation of utility and transport infrastructure firms. In this project we investigate the use of econometric distance functions as a means of obtaining improved productivity measures. This new approach addresses the main criticisms of alternative ap ....Robust Productivity Measurement: An Econometric Distance Function Approach. Accurate measures of productivity are required in a range of economic analyses. For example, in the assessment of the success of microeconomic reforms, or in price-cap regulation of utility and transport infrastructure firms. In this project we investigate the use of econometric distance functions as a means of obtaining improved productivity measures. This new approach addresses the main criticisms of alternative approaches, such as the single output restriction in the production function approach, the optimisation assumptions embedded in both the value dual approach and the Törnqvist index approach, and the statistical noise criticism of the data envelopment analysis approach.Read moreRead less
Should rational individuals be optimistic? Theory, survey evidence, experimental evidence, and policy implications. This project will help Australian policy makers design better information-revelation policies and will elevate the skill level of Australian research in behavioural economics. Insights we generate about how best to manage the public's expectations will enable policy design that strengthens Australia's social and economic fabric. We will disseminate the recommendations we generate ....Should rational individuals be optimistic? Theory, survey evidence, experimental evidence, and policy implications. This project will help Australian policy makers design better information-revelation policies and will elevate the skill level of Australian research in behavioural economics. Insights we generate about how best to manage the public's expectations will enable policy design that strengthens Australia's social and economic fabric. We will disseminate the recommendations we generate in a policy workshop at the end of our project. In terms of benefits to the level of science in Australia, the project will work with local data and local researchers, and will import into Australia new experimental medical equipment and the knowledge of how to use it. These benefits will help Australia progress to the forefront of behavioural economic research.Read moreRead less