Macroeconomic and Financial Modelling in an Era of Extremes. This project aims to develop methods to allow workhorse models in economics and finance to better reflect tail events--low probability extreme events, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to address fundamental technical challenges in the estimation of such models, develop a coherent framework for counterfactual analysis of these models and propose methods to apply these models in a big-data environ ....Macroeconomic and Financial Modelling in an Era of Extremes. This project aims to develop methods to allow workhorse models in economics and finance to better reflect tail events--low probability extreme events, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to address fundamental technical challenges in the estimation of such models, develop a coherent framework for counterfactual analysis of these models and propose methods to apply these models in a big-data environment. Expected outcomes include new insights into the transmission of tail risks in the global economic and financial system. This should provide significant benefits, including guidance to Australian and international policymakers charged with maintaining stability in the face of extreme events.Read moreRead less
New methods in spectral geometry. This project aims to use methods from mathematical scattering theory to resolve problems in the spectral analysis and index theory of differential operators. Both areas underpin the theoretical understanding of physical materials at micro length scales where quantum phenomena dominate. The project will develop new mathematical results in spectral analysis and geometry, and apply its results to theoretical models of quantum phenomena whose spectral properties are ....New methods in spectral geometry. This project aims to use methods from mathematical scattering theory to resolve problems in the spectral analysis and index theory of differential operators. Both areas underpin the theoretical understanding of physical materials at micro length scales where quantum phenomena dominate. The project will develop new mathematical results in spectral analysis and geometry, and apply its results to theoretical models of quantum phenomena whose spectral properties are at the limit of the range of mathematical techniques. Solving these problems is expected to influence non-commutative analysis.Read moreRead less
Uncertainty, Risk and Related Concepts in Machine Learning. Machine learning is the science of making sense of data. It does not and cannot remove all risk and uncertainty. This project proposes to study the foundations of how machine learning uses, represents and communicates risk and uncertainty. It aims to do so by finding new theoretical connections between diverse notions that have arisen in allied disciplines. These include risk, uncertainty, scoring rules and loss functions, divergences, ....Uncertainty, Risk and Related Concepts in Machine Learning. Machine learning is the science of making sense of data. It does not and cannot remove all risk and uncertainty. This project proposes to study the foundations of how machine learning uses, represents and communicates risk and uncertainty. It aims to do so by finding new theoretical connections between diverse notions that have arisen in allied disciplines. These include risk, uncertainty, scoring rules and loss functions, divergences, statistics and different ways of aggregating information. By building a more complete theoretical map it is expected that new machine learning methods will be developed, but more importantly that machine learning will be able to be better integrated into larger socio-technical systems.Read moreRead less
Feature Learning for High-dimensional Functional Time Series. This project aims to develop new methods and theories for common features on high-dimensional functional time series observed in empirical applications. The significance includes addressing a key gap in adaptive and efficient feature learning, improving forecasting accuracy and understanding forecasting-driven factors comprehensively for empirical data. Expected outcomes involve advances in big data theory and easy-to-implement algori ....Feature Learning for High-dimensional Functional Time Series. This project aims to develop new methods and theories for common features on high-dimensional functional time series observed in empirical applications. The significance includes addressing a key gap in adaptive and efficient feature learning, improving forecasting accuracy and understanding forecasting-driven factors comprehensively for empirical data. Expected outcomes involve advances in big data theory and easy-to-implement algorithms for applied researchers. This project benefits not only advanced manufacturing by finding optimal stopping time for wood panel compression, but also superior forecasting for mortality in demography, climate data in environmental science, asset returns in finance, and electricity consumption in economics. Read moreRead less
Reliable and accurate statistical solutions for modern complex data. This project aims to develop novel methods for reliable and accurate statistical modelling with modern, complex correlated and error-prone data. The project expects to make significant strides towards future-proofing statistical data analysis, equipping practitioners with a suite of robust and computationally efficient methods which provide confidence in the stability and reproducibility of results obtained, while offering guar ....Reliable and accurate statistical solutions for modern complex data. This project aims to develop novel methods for reliable and accurate statistical modelling with modern, complex correlated and error-prone data. The project expects to make significant strides towards future-proofing statistical data analysis, equipping practitioners with a suite of robust and computationally efficient methods which provide confidence in the stability and reproducibility of results obtained, while offering guarantees on their transferability over a range of populations. This will provide important benefits as they are applied in predicting endangered marine species for fisheries conservation, and in enhancing our national understanding of the relationship between education achievement and financial success. Read moreRead less
Novel statistical methods for data with non-Euclidean geometric structure. This project aims to develop new flexible regression models and classification algorithms, along with robust and efficient inference methods, applicable to a wide range of non-Euclidean data types which arise in many fields of science, business and technology. There are serious flaws with currently available methods of analysis for non-Euclidean data. This project expects to transform such analyses by providing new quanti ....Novel statistical methods for data with non-Euclidean geometric structure. This project aims to develop new flexible regression models and classification algorithms, along with robust and efficient inference methods, applicable to a wide range of non-Euclidean data types which arise in many fields of science, business and technology. There are serious flaws with currently available methods of analysis for non-Euclidean data. This project expects to transform such analyses by providing new quantitative tools within a unifying framework. The anticipated project outcomes will be of mathematical interest and valuable in applications such as finance (predicting Australian stock returns); modelling electroencephalography data; Australian geochemical data, relating to sediments; and Australian X-ray tumour image data. Read moreRead less
Efficient phylogenetic methods that manage the curse of genomic complexity. This project aims to develop new methods and software to infer the evolutionary history of organisms using genomic data. These new phylogenomic methods need to take account of the complexity of evolutionary processes and/or patterns in time (along the evolutionary tree) and space (along the genome). This project is significant because these methods must merge mathematics and statistics with High-Performance Computing to ....Efficient phylogenetic methods that manage the curse of genomic complexity. This project aims to develop new methods and software to infer the evolutionary history of organisms using genomic data. These new phylogenomic methods need to take account of the complexity of evolutionary processes and/or patterns in time (along the evolutionary tree) and space (along the genome). This project is significant because these methods must merge mathematics and statistics with High-Performance Computing to handle the huge quantities of genetic data and the complexity of evolution itself. An important expected outcome of this project will be the development and release of freely-available software that incorporates these new methods. This project expects to benefit scientists who need to infer phylogenies from genomic data. Read moreRead less
Inequality, Prosperity and the Australian Welfare State. This project aims to clarify contested understandings of Australian inequality and the role of economic and social policies in addressing policy challenges going forward. The objective of the project is to generate significantly improved knowledge of inequality in Australia using innovative approaches of data splicing, decomposition, simulation and backcasting to fill research gaps and resolve contested interpretations. We aim to provide a ....Inequality, Prosperity and the Australian Welfare State. This project aims to clarify contested understandings of Australian inequality and the role of economic and social policies in addressing policy challenges going forward. The objective of the project is to generate significantly improved knowledge of inequality in Australia using innovative approaches of data splicing, decomposition, simulation and backcasting to fill research gaps and resolve contested interpretations. We aim to provide a benchmark and robust framework against which policy development after the current crisis can be evaluated. This project aims to provide significant benefits, keeping Australia at the forefront of research on inequality and public policy, strengthening links between researchers and policy makers.
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Dynamic evolution of mutation rates: causes and impacts on genomic analysis. This project aims to illuminate the role of variation in mutation rate in driving evolutionary change. Mutation rate is a core parameter in evolutionary analyses in essential applications including epidemiology, conservation and medicine, yet remains a “black box” given arbitrary universal values. This project will take a whole-of-biodiversity approach to understanding the forces shaping mutation rate, impact on evoluti ....Dynamic evolution of mutation rates: causes and impacts on genomic analysis. This project aims to illuminate the role of variation in mutation rate in driving evolutionary change. Mutation rate is a core parameter in evolutionary analyses in essential applications including epidemiology, conservation and medicine, yet remains a “black box” given arbitrary universal values. This project will take a whole-of-biodiversity approach to understanding the forces shaping mutation rate, impact on evolution of biodiversity and effect on accuracy and precision of phylogenetic analyses. Using Australian case studies, the expected outcome of this project will be a greater understanding variation in mutation rate between species, providing significant benefits in developing more sophisticated and reliable phylogenetic analyses.Read moreRead less
Free parafermions: a challenge for non-Hermitian physics. This project aims to calculate and understand the physical properties of free parafermions. Parafermions have attracted interest in topological schemes for quantum computation because they are computationally more powerful than Majorana fermions. The core of this project is a fundamental model of free parafermions, which has been shown to exhibit unexplained puzzling properties. The project outcomes include an in-depth understanding of th ....Free parafermions: a challenge for non-Hermitian physics. This project aims to calculate and understand the physical properties of free parafermions. Parafermions have attracted interest in topological schemes for quantum computation because they are computationally more powerful than Majorana fermions. The core of this project is a fundamental model of free parafermions, which has been shown to exhibit unexplained puzzling properties. The project outcomes include an in-depth understanding of this model by taking the non-Hermitian features into account, establishing a connection with open quantum systems. Non-Hermitian systems are also of increasing relevance in physics, especially in quantum optics. The project also aims to contribute to training researchers in the mathematical sciences.
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