Improved seasonal rainfall prediction for grain growers using farm level data and novel modelling. Successful grain production, a key export commodity for Australia, depends heavily on reliable seasonal forecasts. However, the highly variable climate means that for Australia’s 25,000 grain growers current forecasts lack detail in space and time. Using a combination of fuzzy classification and artificial neural networks, this project will develop a locally detailed continuously updating data-driv ....Improved seasonal rainfall prediction for grain growers using farm level data and novel modelling. Successful grain production, a key export commodity for Australia, depends heavily on reliable seasonal forecasts. However, the highly variable climate means that for Australia’s 25,000 grain growers current forecasts lack detail in space and time. Using a combination of fuzzy classification and artificial neural networks, this project will develop a locally detailed continuously updating data-driven seasonal forecast system using high density climate data from the 17,000 Grain Growers Association members and climate drivers such as sea surface temperature from the Bureau of Meteorology. After validation against observed data, the forecasts will be delivered via a web-based portal to users.Read moreRead less
Better communication to solve the under-saving, under-spending puzzle. This project expects to develop evidence-based communication tools that promote life-time financial security, specifically investigating the puzzling and harmful tendency of people to under-save while working and under-spend while retired. To achieve this goal, it will design and experimentally validate innovative boosts to superannuation communication including income projections and goal-setting targeted at common misconcep ....Better communication to solve the under-saving, under-spending puzzle. This project expects to develop evidence-based communication tools that promote life-time financial security, specifically investigating the puzzling and harmful tendency of people to under-save while working and under-spend while retired. To achieve this goal, it will design and experimentally validate innovative boosts to superannuation communication including income projections and goal-setting targeted at common misconceptions and biases. It will use new structural modelling techniques to measure welfare changes. The expected outcomes are rigorous explanations for the saving-spending puzzle, and robust communication strategies for superannuation funds that will benefit workers and retirees by raising financial capability and confidence.Read moreRead less
Development of a Risk Assessment and Cost-Effectiveness Model for Optimising Geotechnical Roadway Assets. Roadway performance is strongly a function of the topography and foundation conditions through which the roadway passes, dictating the need for cuttings and fills, and approaches to handle problematic foundation conditions. The project aims to develop a risk management model to minimise the geotechnical risks and costs involved in roadway construction and maintenance, and maximise design li ....Development of a Risk Assessment and Cost-Effectiveness Model for Optimising Geotechnical Roadway Assets. Roadway performance is strongly a function of the topography and foundation conditions through which the roadway passes, dictating the need for cuttings and fills, and approaches to handle problematic foundation conditions. The project aims to develop a risk management model to minimise the geotechnical risks and costs involved in roadway construction and maintenance, and maximise design life. In Queensland, the value of roadway geotechnical assets is about $ 7.5 billion, with $ 0.5 billion spent annually adding to and maintaining these assets. The expected outcome of the project is maximising the life of geotechnical roadway assets for the funds available.Read moreRead less
A graphical simulation package for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting systems. We will develop a Scalar Vector Graphics (SVG) simulation tool for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting and utilisation schemes. The generic model will be applied to existing and proposed schemes within the City of Salisbury (CoS) and will include a capture dam, one or more storage dams and an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) facility. The discret ....A graphical simulation package for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting systems. We will develop a Scalar Vector Graphics (SVG) simulation tool for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting and utilisation schemes. The generic model will be applied to existing and proposed schemes within the City of Salisbury (CoS) and will include a capture dam, one or more storage dams and an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) facility. The discrete state vector will be the content of each storage unit and the daily transition will be driven by a new stochastic rainfall model (SRM). The objective will be to find a practical management policy that minimises Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).Read moreRead less
Governance and the investment performance of not-for-profit endowments. Governance and the investment performance of not-for-profit endowments. This project aims to examine the relation between performance and governance for Australian not for profit (NFP) endowments. The not-for-profit sector now accounts for over 4 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) (almost $43 billion) and employs volunteers who contribute an additional $14.6 billion in unpaid work. Little research has been done on ....Governance and the investment performance of not-for-profit endowments. Governance and the investment performance of not-for-profit endowments. This project aims to examine the relation between performance and governance for Australian not for profit (NFP) endowments. The not-for-profit sector now accounts for over 4 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) (almost $43 billion) and employs volunteers who contribute an additional $14.6 billion in unpaid work. Little research has been done on the investment performance of the endowments held by NFPs, even though this is an important contributor to their revenues. Expected outcomes include a publicised set of principles and periodically updated index of endowment governance quality, and attendant improvement in NFP investment management.Read moreRead less
Modelling claim dependencies for the general insurance industry with economic capital in view: an innovative approach with stochastic processes. This project will develop and enhance multi-dimensional models used to describe and assess the risks borne by general insurers. These innovative methods, which will be directly applicable by the industry, will strengthen the efficiency and the safety of the Australian economy.
Development of a Multi Threat Risk Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure Using Scripted Agent Computer Technology. Current risk assessment paradigms are not suited to the control of catastrophic events such as terrorism. An advanced approach to risk assessment will be developed in this project for rare high impact events such as bomb blasts, where critical infrastructure is threatened. A new software platform based on scripted agent modelling will be constructed that will allow for state ....Development of a Multi Threat Risk Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure Using Scripted Agent Computer Technology. Current risk assessment paradigms are not suited to the control of catastrophic events such as terrorism. An advanced approach to risk assessment will be developed in this project for rare high impact events such as bomb blasts, where critical infrastructure is threatened. A new software platform based on scripted agent modelling will be constructed that will allow for state of the art models to be used as agents providing a dynamic risk evaluation and necessary information for actions to infrastructure owners and emergency responders as a threat develops. Both the developed scripted agent and the risk assessment technologies can be applied to other technologies and complex risks, such as waste disposal and biotechnology.Read moreRead less
Development of a Multi Threat Risk Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure Using Scripted Agent Computer Technology. The project will develop a distributed risk network capable of real time assessment of multiple threats to critical infrastructure, which will guide decision making on the appropriate response as the nature of the threat changes. This will assist all stakeholders and allow an integrated response across industry and government agencies. The developed technology will find read ....Development of a Multi Threat Risk Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure Using Scripted Agent Computer Technology. The project will develop a distributed risk network capable of real time assessment of multiple threats to critical infrastructure, which will guide decision making on the appropriate response as the nature of the threat changes. This will assist all stakeholders and allow an integrated response across industry and government agencies. The developed technology will find ready application in other areas where integration of science and technology is required to solve complex problems. For example, risk network technology has application to natural hazards, waste disposal and financial markets while the scripted agent has application to communication technologies and sensor networks.Read moreRead less
Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less
The Betaproteobacteria: could they play a key role in nitrogen fixation on infertile soils with legumes adapted to climate change? Microbial biosecurity is often overlooked when introducing agricultural species to Australia. As we research new legume species to make our $44 billion agricultural industries robust in the face of a changing climate, we need to be aware of the implications of the associated introduction of (beneficial) microbes. By exploring the globe for plants from regions that al ....The Betaproteobacteria: could they play a key role in nitrogen fixation on infertile soils with legumes adapted to climate change? Microbial biosecurity is often overlooked when introducing agricultural species to Australia. As we research new legume species to make our $44 billion agricultural industries robust in the face of a changing climate, we need to be aware of the implications of the associated introduction of (beneficial) microbes. By exploring the globe for plants from regions that already have the climate we are transitioning towards, we have discovered new perennial forage legumes from which we can build a robust agriculture in the arid regions of southern Australia. This will have enormous national benefit in rural regions. This project will research the essential microbial inoculants associated with these new plants.Read moreRead less