Development of a Risk Assessment and Cost-Effectiveness Model for Optimising Geotechnical Roadway Assets. Roadway performance is strongly a function of the topography and foundation conditions through which the roadway passes, dictating the need for cuttings and fills, and approaches to handle problematic foundation conditions. The project aims to develop a risk management model to minimise the geotechnical risks and costs involved in roadway construction and maintenance, and maximise design li ....Development of a Risk Assessment and Cost-Effectiveness Model for Optimising Geotechnical Roadway Assets. Roadway performance is strongly a function of the topography and foundation conditions through which the roadway passes, dictating the need for cuttings and fills, and approaches to handle problematic foundation conditions. The project aims to develop a risk management model to minimise the geotechnical risks and costs involved in roadway construction and maintenance, and maximise design life. In Queensland, the value of roadway geotechnical assets is about $ 7.5 billion, with $ 0.5 billion spent annually adding to and maintaining these assets. The expected outcome of the project is maximising the life of geotechnical roadway assets for the funds available.Read moreRead less
A graphical simulation package for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting systems. We will develop a Scalar Vector Graphics (SVG) simulation tool for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting and utilisation schemes. The generic model will be applied to existing and proposed schemes within the City of Salisbury (CoS) and will include a capture dam, one or more storage dams and an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) facility. The discret ....A graphical simulation package for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting systems. We will develop a Scalar Vector Graphics (SVG) simulation tool for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting and utilisation schemes. The generic model will be applied to existing and proposed schemes within the City of Salisbury (CoS) and will include a capture dam, one or more storage dams and an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) facility. The discrete state vector will be the content of each storage unit and the daily transition will be driven by a new stochastic rainfall model (SRM). The objective will be to find a practical management policy that minimises Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).Read moreRead less
Development of a Multi Threat Risk Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure Using Scripted Agent Computer Technology. Current risk assessment paradigms are not suited to the control of catastrophic events such as terrorism. An advanced approach to risk assessment will be developed in this project for rare high impact events such as bomb blasts, where critical infrastructure is threatened. A new software platform based on scripted agent modelling will be constructed that will allow for state ....Development of a Multi Threat Risk Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure Using Scripted Agent Computer Technology. Current risk assessment paradigms are not suited to the control of catastrophic events such as terrorism. An advanced approach to risk assessment will be developed in this project for rare high impact events such as bomb blasts, where critical infrastructure is threatened. A new software platform based on scripted agent modelling will be constructed that will allow for state of the art models to be used as agents providing a dynamic risk evaluation and necessary information for actions to infrastructure owners and emergency responders as a threat develops. Both the developed scripted agent and the risk assessment technologies can be applied to other technologies and complex risks, such as waste disposal and biotechnology.Read moreRead less
Development of a Multi Threat Risk Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure Using Scripted Agent Computer Technology. The project will develop a distributed risk network capable of real time assessment of multiple threats to critical infrastructure, which will guide decision making on the appropriate response as the nature of the threat changes. This will assist all stakeholders and allow an integrated response across industry and government agencies. The developed technology will find read ....Development of a Multi Threat Risk Assessment Model for Critical Infrastructure Using Scripted Agent Computer Technology. The project will develop a distributed risk network capable of real time assessment of multiple threats to critical infrastructure, which will guide decision making on the appropriate response as the nature of the threat changes. This will assist all stakeholders and allow an integrated response across industry and government agencies. The developed technology will find ready application in other areas where integration of science and technology is required to solve complex problems. For example, risk network technology has application to natural hazards, waste disposal and financial markets while the scripted agent has application to communication technologies and sensor networks.Read moreRead less
Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less
Mining venture risk: novel econometric methods to integrate joint financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The mining industry is nationally important: it contributed $33,927M to Australia's GDP in 2002-3. This project's outcomes - sophisticated statistical and econometric tools - will significantly improve capability for forecasting overall risk to mining projects requiring vast upfront, irreversible investments, and contribute to its efficiency and internati ....Mining venture risk: novel econometric methods to integrate joint financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The mining industry is nationally important: it contributed $33,927M to Australia's GDP in 2002-3. This project's outcomes - sophisticated statistical and econometric tools - will significantly improve capability for forecasting overall risk to mining projects requiring vast upfront, irreversible investments, and contribute to its efficiency and international competitiveness. Innovative methods driven by data from complex financial and geological systems will integrate price volatility risk and orebody uncertainty in a real options framework, providing holistic, rigorous measurement of mining venture risk. Xstrata Queensland Ltd will strongly support and participate in research training of an identified candidate to deliver discoveries to the wider industry.Read moreRead less
Risk Measurement for Large Portfolios under the Benchmark Approach. The measurement of risk for large portfolios, consisting of basic assets and derivatives, will play a key role in future risk management systems. Based on a new characterization of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with standard and new simulat ....Risk Measurement for Large Portfolios under the Benchmark Approach. The measurement of risk for large portfolios, consisting of basic assets and derivatives, will play a key role in future risk management systems. Based on a new characterization of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with standard and new simulation methods will demonstrate their superiority. The outcomes of this project will give the Australian industry and the industry partner a competitive advantage in the measurement and management of risk for large portfolios as superannuation funds or portfolios of banks.Read moreRead less