Measuring uncertainty in global housing markets and its risk to Australia. This project aims to develop and construct a measure of systemic risk for the national real-estate markets in Australia, and its main trading partners, namely China, Japan, New Zealand, United Kingdom and United States of America. Recently developed methodology will be used to investigate how real estate risks migrate across these countries over time, and during periods of financial turbulence. This methodology is intende ....Measuring uncertainty in global housing markets and its risk to Australia. This project aims to develop and construct a measure of systemic risk for the national real-estate markets in Australia, and its main trading partners, namely China, Japan, New Zealand, United Kingdom and United States of America. Recently developed methodology will be used to investigate how real estate risks migrate across these countries over time, and during periods of financial turbulence. This methodology is intended to be employed as part of a market stability surveillance program and for assessing the impact of real-estate risk on the overall economy. Early detection of the onset of future housing bubble collapses would be of significant benefit to policy makers, Australia’s trading partners, the real estate industry and ultimately home buyers.Read moreRead less
AI-driven Effective Query Formulation for Better Systematic Reviews. This project aims to develop novel AI-based search engine methods to make the creation of systematic reviews cheaper, faster and unbiased. Systematic reviews are the cornerstone for evidence-based decisions in clinical practice and government policy making. Given the pace new research is published at, it is unsustainable to manually conduct systematic reviews in the traditional manner, taking on average 2 years and $350K and be ....AI-driven Effective Query Formulation for Better Systematic Reviews. This project aims to develop novel AI-based search engine methods to make the creation of systematic reviews cheaper, faster and unbiased. Systematic reviews are the cornerstone for evidence-based decisions in clinical practice and government policy making. Given the pace new research is published at, it is unsustainable to manually conduct systematic reviews in the traditional manner, taking on average 2 years and $350K and becoming already outdated when published. The outcomes of this project will lead to systematic reviews of higher quality, while reducing their financial and temporal costs, providing significant benefits to organisations performing reviews and their funders, and to people impacted by decisions made from the reviews.Read moreRead less
Finding answers for complex questions. This project aims to develop a new search paradigm for on-line search engines that presents users with answers to complex questions, rather than forcing them to find answers themselves from lists of retrieved documents. The project will develop a taxonomy of complex answer search tasks, devise novel techniques to increase the effectiveness of complex answer retrieval through interaction and, create a new evaluation framework for precise measurement of syste ....Finding answers for complex questions. This project aims to develop a new search paradigm for on-line search engines that presents users with answers to complex questions, rather than forcing them to find answers themselves from lists of retrieved documents. The project will develop a taxonomy of complex answer search tasks, devise novel techniques to increase the effectiveness of complex answer retrieval through interaction and, create a new evaluation framework for precise measurement of system effectiveness. This project should provide significant advances that will benefit all users of search engines.Read moreRead less
A new class of statistical methods for analysing long memory time series models with heteroskedasticity. This project will result in a class of statistical methods that will aid policy makers and financial analysts when examining and predicting key international and Australian macroeconomic and financial variables that exhibit long memory. Leading applications of long memory modelling in the literature include GDP, CPI, asset pricing models, stock returns, exchange rates and interest rates. It w ....A new class of statistical methods for analysing long memory time series models with heteroskedasticity. This project will result in a class of statistical methods that will aid policy makers and financial analysts when examining and predicting key international and Australian macroeconomic and financial variables that exhibit long memory. Leading applications of long memory modelling in the literature include GDP, CPI, asset pricing models, stock returns, exchange rates and interest rates. It will be possible to robustly and efficiently analyse such series in the presence of changes in variability, such as the overall reduction in variability that has occurred since the 1970's, called the "Great Moderation". The utility of the new methods will be demonstrated by a robust and efficient analysis of the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE190100840
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Monitoring financial bubbles using high-frequency data. This project aims to develop an econometric procedure for monitoring speculative behaviour, often labelled as bubbles, in financial markets. There has been widespread recognition that financial speculation can inflict harm on the real economy. Crises or recessions are often preceded by excessive asset market speculation. This project will utilise intraday information for bubble detection and address major technical challenges arising from h ....Monitoring financial bubbles using high-frequency data. This project aims to develop an econometric procedure for monitoring speculative behaviour, often labelled as bubbles, in financial markets. There has been widespread recognition that financial speculation can inflict harm on the real economy. Crises or recessions are often preceded by excessive asset market speculation. This project will utilise intraday information for bubble detection and address major technical challenges arising from high-frequency financial data. It is expected to significantly improve the speed and accuracy of bubble detection, thereby providing more timely and precise warning alerts for investment decisions, market surveillance and policy action.Read moreRead less
Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
Australian Real Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real Time Policy Making. This first comprehensive macroeconomic real time database for Australia recording the actual data available to policy makers at the time of making decisions will serve as a standard reference for accurate ex post macroeconomic policy evaluation and for accurate forecasts and decision making which are robust to data revisions. The free database will be of interest to Australian researchers, economists, ....Australian Real Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real Time Policy Making. This first comprehensive macroeconomic real time database for Australia recording the actual data available to policy makers at the time of making decisions will serve as a standard reference for accurate ex post macroeconomic policy evaluation and for accurate forecasts and decision making which are robust to data revisions. The free database will be of interest to Australian researchers, economists, forecasters and policy makers. Readily applicable and interpretable forecasts of the business cycle and the current state of the Australian (and US) economy (e.g. likelihood of recessions or inflation) will be of direct relevance to Australian policy-makers in Government, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and to the Australian decision-makers. Read moreRead less