Measuring uncertainty in global housing markets and its risk to Australia. This project aims to develop and construct a measure of systemic risk for the national real-estate markets in Australia, and its main trading partners, namely China, Japan, New Zealand, United Kingdom and United States of America. Recently developed methodology will be used to investigate how real estate risks migrate across these countries over time, and during periods of financial turbulence. This methodology is intende ....Measuring uncertainty in global housing markets and its risk to Australia. This project aims to develop and construct a measure of systemic risk for the national real-estate markets in Australia, and its main trading partners, namely China, Japan, New Zealand, United Kingdom and United States of America. Recently developed methodology will be used to investigate how real estate risks migrate across these countries over time, and during periods of financial turbulence. This methodology is intended to be employed as part of a market stability surveillance program and for assessing the impact of real-estate risk on the overall economy. Early detection of the onset of future housing bubble collapses would be of significant benefit to policy makers, Australia’s trading partners, the real estate industry and ultimately home buyers.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE190100840
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Monitoring financial bubbles using high-frequency data. This project aims to develop an econometric procedure for monitoring speculative behaviour, often labelled as bubbles, in financial markets. There has been widespread recognition that financial speculation can inflict harm on the real economy. Crises or recessions are often preceded by excessive asset market speculation. This project will utilise intraday information for bubble detection and address major technical challenges arising from h ....Monitoring financial bubbles using high-frequency data. This project aims to develop an econometric procedure for monitoring speculative behaviour, often labelled as bubbles, in financial markets. There has been widespread recognition that financial speculation can inflict harm on the real economy. Crises or recessions are often preceded by excessive asset market speculation. This project will utilise intraday information for bubble detection and address major technical challenges arising from high-frequency financial data. It is expected to significantly improve the speed and accuracy of bubble detection, thereby providing more timely and precise warning alerts for investment decisions, market surveillance and policy action.Read moreRead less
Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140100007
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$391,947.00
Summary
An Adaptive and Intelligent Service Level Agreement Negotiation System for Web-Based Service-Oriented Grid Computing. This project will develop an intelligent negotiation system for Service Level Agreement (SLA) in web-based service-oriented grid computing. The specific aims include computational models for SLA negotiation representation, intelligent management of SLA negotiation procedures and adaptive learning for SLA negotiation system improvement. The significance of this project lies in its ....An Adaptive and Intelligent Service Level Agreement Negotiation System for Web-Based Service-Oriented Grid Computing. This project will develop an intelligent negotiation system for Service Level Agreement (SLA) in web-based service-oriented grid computing. The specific aims include computational models for SLA negotiation representation, intelligent management of SLA negotiation procedures and adaptive learning for SLA negotiation system improvement. The significance of this project lies in its promises to realise the automation of SLA negotiation through using intelligent and computational models, so as to greatly improve the efficiency of web-based service systems. The research results will enable software engineers to develop more robust and intelligent service-oriented systems through web-based computational grids.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100795
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$365,000.00
Summary
New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important appl ....New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important applications are also considered: one investigates how the zero lower bound on interest rates affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism; and, the other examines how uncertainties about monetary and fiscal policy affect economic growth and inflation. This project will have strong practical significance for conducting macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to ....Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to provide valuable information for policymakers for formulating macroeconomic policies. They can be used to better assess the credibility of monetary policy and shed light on the causes of low inflation rate in developed economies.Read moreRead less
Change Detection in Causal Relationships and Measurement of Systemic Risk. Empirical measures of interconnectedness between financial institutions based on tests of Granger causality are currently used in detecting systemic risk. However, researchers need to define periods of calm and stress exogenously in order to implement these tests appropriately. This project aims to develop a new procedure to identify changes in causal relationships and the timing of these changes. The new approach has the ....Change Detection in Causal Relationships and Measurement of Systemic Risk. Empirical measures of interconnectedness between financial institutions based on tests of Granger causality are currently used in detecting systemic risk. However, researchers need to define periods of calm and stress exogenously in order to implement these tests appropriately. This project aims to develop a new procedure to identify changes in causal relationships and the timing of these changes. The new approach has the potential to be a significant improvement in the real-time identification of emerging turmoil in financial markets and provide an improved method for the detection of systemic risk. The new test procedure will be implemented using data for financial and non-financial institutions across Europe, the US and Australia.Read moreRead less
Defining and developing a marine cadastre for Australia. Australia's ocean territories cover an area 1.5 times larger than the nation's land mass. Systems for the management and administration of land in a spatial context have been developed over many years but no such system exists for the nation's oceans. A marine cadastre aims at providing a comprehensive spatial data infrastructure and spatial analysis tools for the assessment, administration and management of rights, restrictions and respo ....Defining and developing a marine cadastre for Australia. Australia's ocean territories cover an area 1.5 times larger than the nation's land mass. Systems for the management and administration of land in a spatial context have been developed over many years but no such system exists for the nation's oceans. A marine cadastre aims at providing a comprehensive spatial data infrastructure and spatial analysis tools for the assessment, administration and management of rights, restrictions and responsibilities in the marine environment. The objective of this project is to investigate the issues and define the problems associated with the development of a marine cadastre, thereby providing the foundation for future research.Read moreRead less
A scheme of local compilation of mobile collectors for image and video search engines. The object collector is an important component in a Web search engine. A collector collects Web objects (text, image, video, etc), extracts their features and builds an index file for the search engine. Sending each object to the collector is always the worst option with respect to resource usage because it is the feature, not the entire object, which will be used in indexing and retrieval. An alternative is t ....A scheme of local compilation of mobile collectors for image and video search engines. The object collector is an important component in a Web search engine. A collector collects Web objects (text, image, video, etc), extracts their features and builds an index file for the search engine. Sending each object to the collector is always the worst option with respect to resource usage because it is the feature, not the entire object, which will be used in indexing and retrieval. An alternative is to send a collector to the source site, which has an advantage of distributing computational load and performing summarization and compression. This project proposes a locally compiled mobile collector for image and video search engines.Read moreRead less
Policy frameworks and market/non-market activity of young and older adults . The project intends to compare the social and economic participation of young adults and older people across nations to reveal best practice policy in engaging both ends of the age spectrum in productive activity. Population ageing has implications for the wellbeing and prosperity of both the older and younger generations. This project intends to investigate how contemporary young adults and older people spend their tim ....Policy frameworks and market/non-market activity of young and older adults . The project intends to compare the social and economic participation of young adults and older people across nations to reveal best practice policy in engaging both ends of the age spectrum in productive activity. Population ageing has implications for the wellbeing and prosperity of both the older and younger generations. This project intends to investigate how contemporary young adults and older people spend their time in productive activities across countries with contrasting policy frameworks. This may yield important policy-relevant information for Australia on how to both protect the old and invest in the young, while balancing financial sustainability and the principles of social justice and fairness.Read moreRead less