Western Australia severe weather prediction: optimising forecasts using new data sources and improved high-resolution models. WA suffers unusually high exposure to severe tropical and extra-tropical weather, from its size and geographical location. This project will develop enhanced data assimilation and modelling techniques, using emerging high-resolution satellite and other data to improve the timeliness, accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts for WA. Outcomes include: improved forecas ....Western Australia severe weather prediction: optimising forecasts using new data sources and improved high-resolution models. WA suffers unusually high exposure to severe tropical and extra-tropical weather, from its size and geographical location. This project will develop enhanced data assimilation and modelling techniques, using emerging high-resolution satellite and other data to improve the timeliness, accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts for WA. Outcomes include: improved forecast systems for predicting severe weather affecting WA (and consequently Australia), and ensemble forecast systems that provide valuable probabilistic information, such as confidence limits in the forecasts. Better forecasts issued earlier for severe weather events will allow appropriate planning and management measures, thereby reducing their present high social and economic cost.Read moreRead less
Statistical and mathematical modelling to improve health care outcomes in hospitals. The aim of this project is to develop new quantitative techniques based on mathematical and statistical modelling that improve the outcomes of health care in hospitals. Hospital outcomes for patients are sub-optimal due to adverse events such as hospital acquired infections and fully stretched facilities. Research from this project will lead to resource usage being optimised using operations research; the tra ....Statistical and mathematical modelling to improve health care outcomes in hospitals. The aim of this project is to develop new quantitative techniques based on mathematical and statistical modelling that improve the outcomes of health care in hospitals. Hospital outcomes for patients are sub-optimal due to adverse events such as hospital acquired infections and fully stretched facilities. Research from this project will lead to resource usage being optimised using operations research; the transmission of hospital acquired infections being better understood using mathematical models; and better monitoring of adverse events and analyses of studies using statistical tools. Opportunities will be provided for hospital staff to acquire knowledge of the significance of these outcomes .Read moreRead less
Higher Order Effects in Miniaturized Piezoelectric Devices. The national benefits of this project are: (a) We will provide opportunities to two postdoctoral researchers to pursue cutting edge research on electromagnetic radiation/scattering and self-heating phenomena in microelectronic devices involving ultrathin lossy electrodes. (b) We will provide industry-oriented research on coating and shielding problems in microelectronic devices to two postgraduate students. (c) We will team up with worl ....Higher Order Effects in Miniaturized Piezoelectric Devices. The national benefits of this project are: (a) We will provide opportunities to two postdoctoral researchers to pursue cutting edge research on electromagnetic radiation/scattering and self-heating phenomena in microelectronic devices involving ultrathin lossy electrodes. (b) We will provide industry-oriented research on coating and shielding problems in microelectronic devices to two postgraduate students. (c) We will team up with world leading industrial partners and transfer high-tech know-how to Australia. (d) The outcomes of our research will position Australia as the prime focal point for the design, modelling and simulation of microacoustic devices.Read moreRead less
Developing a robust model for pricing inter-related volatility-based financial derivative contracts. Volatility-based financial contracts were developed in the late 1990s to provide an easy way for investors to gain exposure to the future level of volatility and thus provide a means by which they could speculate on its future levels and also hedge unpredictable volatility risk. This would potentially save them from losing vast quantities of money. However these products can only be efficient pr ....Developing a robust model for pricing inter-related volatility-based financial derivative contracts. Volatility-based financial contracts were developed in the late 1990s to provide an easy way for investors to gain exposure to the future level of volatility and thus provide a means by which they could speculate on its future levels and also hedge unpredictable volatility risk. This would potentially save them from losing vast quantities of money. However these products can only be efficient products for trading and risk management if they are priced correctly. This project will benefit investors by providing empirically viable models that will be able to be easily implemented to provide accurate and fast pricing solutions.Read moreRead less
Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less
Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
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Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormou ....The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormous. Any developed or developing country will profit from such advanced decision-making approaches. Therefore it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial investment and other relevant sectors.Read moreRead less
Investigation of Demand Diversity and Appropriate New Generation Entry into Electricity Market Simulation Tools. The power industry is currently facing a great challenge in providing
better market operation and management following recent devastating blackouts in North America, UK and Italy. This project aims at investigating major mechanisms of market simulation techniques including impacts from load diversity and approaches to defining appropriate new generation entry into the market. From th ....Investigation of Demand Diversity and Appropriate New Generation Entry into Electricity Market Simulation Tools. The power industry is currently facing a great challenge in providing
better market operation and management following recent devastating blackouts in North America, UK and Italy. This project aims at investigating major mechanisms of market simulation techniques including impacts from load diversity and approaches to defining appropriate new generation entry into the market. From the outcome of this project the National Electricity Market will be able to manage the uncertainties of load diversity (one of the most common blackout causes), and efficiently minimise risk associated with decisions on new generation entry to enhance electricity supply infrastructure.
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