El Niño in a changing climate: novel long-term perspectives from Pacific corals and model simulations. El Niño and La Niña events have a profound influence on Australian drought conditions and rainfall. Forecasting is hampered by short climate records, which do not capture the full range of El Niño dynamics. This project aims to generate records of unprecedented length and spatial coverage from key sites across the western and central equatorial Pacific. Five hundred years of continuous, monthly ....El Niño in a changing climate: novel long-term perspectives from Pacific corals and model simulations. El Niño and La Niña events have a profound influence on Australian drought conditions and rainfall. Forecasting is hampered by short climate records, which do not capture the full range of El Niño dynamics. This project aims to generate records of unprecedented length and spatial coverage from key sites across the western and central equatorial Pacific. Five hundred years of continuous, monthly-resolution climate data will be integrated with output from state-of-the-art climate model simulations to distil the key processes that cause El Niño to vary. This project aims to provide major advances in determining the full range of El Niño and La Niña behaviour, leading to improved forecasts of future changes, with consequences for Australia's water security.Read moreRead less
Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture bud ....Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture budgets between Australia and Antarctica based on a novel, 1000-year length reconstruction of moisture-bearing southern Indian Ocean storms. This new information is critically needed by water managers so that they can properly calculate (and ultimately prepare for) the worst of Australia’s rainfall-related risks.Read moreRead less
Origins and distributions of intraplate earthquakes. This project aims to investigate the behaviour and origin of intraplate earthquakes in Australia by developing a multi-million-year record of earthquakes using geological, geochronological, geospatial, seismological, statistical and numerical modelling data. It will use maximum credible magnitudes, maximum shaking intensities of intraplate earthquakes and spatiotemporal relationships between large prehistoric and contemporary earthquakes to im ....Origins and distributions of intraplate earthquakes. This project aims to investigate the behaviour and origin of intraplate earthquakes in Australia by developing a multi-million-year record of earthquakes using geological, geochronological, geospatial, seismological, statistical and numerical modelling data. It will use maximum credible magnitudes, maximum shaking intensities of intraplate earthquakes and spatiotemporal relationships between large prehistoric and contemporary earthquakes to improve models of future seismic hazard in Australia and globally. This will lead to improved predictions of future earthquake impacts in urban and natural environments and development of new paleoseismic techniques.Read moreRead less
Australian Laureate Fellowships - Grant ID: FL120100050
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$3,079,069.00
Summary
Sea level change and climate sensitivity. This project will aim to improve understanding of climate and sea-level change on timescales relevant to longer-term planning, by characterising the relationship between past sea-level/ice-volume change and other key climate factors such as temperature and greenhouse gases, and by quantifying how rapidly sea level may adjust to climate change.
Daily hydrological and erosion modelling utilising sub-daily rainfall intensity distributions. Australian catchments face major environmental problems. Computer modelling for predicting outcomes of management decisions, in the priority setting process and for assisting with setting local targets is central to environmental management today. This research will develop a new approach for modelling runoff and erosion that is consistent with key process time and space scales. The research is based o ....Daily hydrological and erosion modelling utilising sub-daily rainfall intensity distributions. Australian catchments face major environmental problems. Computer modelling for predicting outcomes of management decisions, in the priority setting process and for assisting with setting local targets is central to environmental management today. This research will develop a new approach for modelling runoff and erosion that is consistent with key process time and space scales. The research is based on improved process understanding and will utilize the large Australian database of hydroclimate and spatial data. This research will lead to improved estimation of runoff and erosion in gauged and ungauged catchments, allowing decisions on land and water resources and environmental management to be made with more reliable information.Read moreRead less
A Fourier approach to address low-frequency variability bias in hydrology. This project aims to develop a mathematical framework to better simulate the occurrence of sustained anomalies, such as droughts and long periods of flooding, into the future. These events increase water insecurity and result in loss of revenue, livelihoods and lives. Hydrological planning requires knowledge of how such sustained extremes will change in the future. Current alternatives for simulating such changes for futu ....A Fourier approach to address low-frequency variability bias in hydrology. This project aims to develop a mathematical framework to better simulate the occurrence of sustained anomalies, such as droughts and long periods of flooding, into the future. These events increase water insecurity and result in loss of revenue, livelihoods and lives. Hydrological planning requires knowledge of how such sustained extremes will change in the future. Current alternatives for simulating such changes for future climates are inadequate for catchment-scale planning to proceed. The project proposes a strategy for post-processing hydrological simulations of the future using an elegant frequency-domain approach. It expects to provide the tools needed to develop hydrologic infrastructure, such as water supply reservoirs, that secure our water resources for the generations to come.Read moreRead less
Erosion Morphodynamics and Evolution of Shore Platforms. Rocky coasts consist of a cliff and often a platform at the base which protects the cliff from wave energy. Such coasts undergo continuous erosion that may threaten property. Climate change may worsen this situation. Despite the importance of platforms in coastal management they remain poorly studied. This project seeks to improve scientific knowledge and understanding of the development and erosion of shore platforms, the relationships ....Erosion Morphodynamics and Evolution of Shore Platforms. Rocky coasts consist of a cliff and often a platform at the base which protects the cliff from wave energy. Such coasts undergo continuous erosion that may threaten property. Climate change may worsen this situation. Despite the importance of platforms in coastal management they remain poorly studied. This project seeks to improve scientific knowledge and understanding of the development and erosion of shore platforms, the relationships between shore platform and cliff retreat and the processes that drive erosion. As a result we will understand how rock coasts with platforms develop and change, especially as sea levels change and be better able to manage the coast in response to climate change. Read moreRead less
The Australian Dust Transport System: characterisation and downwind impacts. Most Australians are aware that dust storms occur in dry inland areas and recently many experienced first hand, the dust storms that engulfed our cities. Few, however, are aware of the diverse impacts of desert dust downwind from source. Recent technological advances in remote sensing have made dust storms much easier to study, and Australian researchers will use these, and other innovative techniques, to reconstruct th ....The Australian Dust Transport System: characterisation and downwind impacts. Most Australians are aware that dust storms occur in dry inland areas and recently many experienced first hand, the dust storms that engulfed our cities. Few, however, are aware of the diverse impacts of desert dust downwind from source. Recent technological advances in remote sensing have made dust storms much easier to study, and Australian researchers will use these, and other innovative techniques, to reconstruct the major dust storms back to 1960. They will reconstruct the sources, dust loads and trajectories of these storms, and examine how dust affects urban air pollution. Their data will also be provided to an allied research team in New Zealand, who are examining how iron-rich Australia dust affects phytoplankton in the oceans.Read moreRead less
Representing low-frequency variability in hydro-climatic simulations for water resources planning and management in a changing climate. Simulating local hydro-climatology under likely climate change allows risk assessment of existing and future water infrastructure, along with the planning protocols needed to adapt to the changes ahead. This study aims to develop the tools needed to simulate local hydro-climatology, providing a basis for securing water for the generations to come.
Understanding total long-term sea-level consequences. This project addresses the urgency in long-term infrastructure planning to understand the long-term "equilibrium" sea-level-change consequences from today’s exceptionally rapid climate change. Understanding this requires detailed sea-level reconstructions back to warm periods with similar CO2 levels to today (~3.5 million years ago), but these remain insufficiently defined. To advance, the project will deliver a next-generation, multi-million ....Understanding total long-term sea-level consequences. This project addresses the urgency in long-term infrastructure planning to understand the long-term "equilibrium" sea-level-change consequences from today’s exceptionally rapid climate change. Understanding this requires detailed sea-level reconstructions back to warm periods with similar CO2 levels to today (~3.5 million years ago), but these remain insufficiently defined. To advance, the project will deliver a next-generation, multi-million-year sea-level reconstruction that includes dynamically evolving (time-dependent) interactions between critical climate factors. This will then be applied with other palaeoclimate data to reconstruct equilibrium relationships between sea level, temperature, and CO2 at currently unattainable precision. Read moreRead less