High-dimensional models with a change point. This project aims to provide a set of estimation and inference procedures for high dimensional quantile regression. Statistical models of threshold regression with change or tipping points are used to explore social issues, including changes in oil and gas prices, effective dosage of drugs and the racial mix in neighbourhoods. To date, using low numbers of variables, the findings have been limited. Big data makes it possible and desirable to solve mor ....High-dimensional models with a change point. This project aims to provide a set of estimation and inference procedures for high dimensional quantile regression. Statistical models of threshold regression with change or tipping points are used to explore social issues, including changes in oil and gas prices, effective dosage of drugs and the racial mix in neighbourhoods. To date, using low numbers of variables, the findings have been limited. Big data makes it possible and desirable to solve more detailed models to provide more accurate results. The quality and accuracy of the project’s results are expected to help governments devise well informed and appropriate policies for social issues.Read moreRead less
Econometric model building and estimation. This project aims to tackle issues in econometric model building and estimation under cross sectional dependence, heterogeneity and nonlinearity. This project will seek to establish flexible econometric models associated with estimation methods and user-friendly computational techniques to try to solve real world problems. The research outcomes are expected to be useful to empirical researchers in evaluating and improving model building and forecasting ....Econometric model building and estimation. This project aims to tackle issues in econometric model building and estimation under cross sectional dependence, heterogeneity and nonlinearity. This project will seek to establish flexible econometric models associated with estimation methods and user-friendly computational techniques to try to solve real world problems. The research outcomes are expected to be useful to empirical researchers in evaluating and improving model building and forecasting from better models in climatology, demography, economics, environment, finance, machine learning and neural networks.Read moreRead less
Public Wi-Fi as Urban Infrastructure - the Australian Case. This research positions publicly provided Wi-Fi as a type of urban and civic infrastructure and asks whether there is a sound case for public investment in public Wi-Fi by local governments. Australia lags behind much of the world in providing public wireless internet access, but a surge of investment is closing the gap. This field-based research aims to appraise rationales for public Wi-Fi provision by examining the social, economic an ....Public Wi-Fi as Urban Infrastructure - the Australian Case. This research positions publicly provided Wi-Fi as a type of urban and civic infrastructure and asks whether there is a sound case for public investment in public Wi-Fi by local governments. Australia lags behind much of the world in providing public wireless internet access, but a surge of investment is closing the gap. This field-based research aims to appraise rationales for public Wi-Fi provision by examining the social, economic and civic impacts of network use. This project aims to fill major empirical and knowledge gaps about investment rationales, uses, and impacts of public Wi-Fi networks, and inform development of urban and communications policies.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100795
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$365,000.00
Summary
New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important appl ....New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important applications are also considered: one investigates how the zero lower bound on interest rates affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism; and, the other examines how uncertainties about monetary and fiscal policy affect economic growth and inflation. This project will have strong practical significance for conducting macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to ....Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to provide valuable information for policymakers for formulating macroeconomic policies. They can be used to better assess the credibility of monetary policy and shed light on the causes of low inflation rate in developed economies.Read moreRead less
Estimating the effects of fiscal policy. This project will develop highly flexible models for estimating the effects of fiscal policy, as well as providing insight into how economic assumptions affect these estimates and which assumptions are supported by historical experience. The models and estimates will be useful for researchers, policymakers and businesses.
Analysis of Fiscal Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions in Australia and the US using Real Time Data. This project investigates the evolution of Australian and US fiscal policy responses to macroeconomic conditions and examines the implications for future levels of public debt. A real time database of fiscal indicators will be constructed to capture information available to policymakers when making decisions. Econometric analysis of the data will involve a flexible approach that captures ....Analysis of Fiscal Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions in Australia and the US using Real Time Data. This project investigates the evolution of Australian and US fiscal policy responses to macroeconomic conditions and examines the implications for future levels of public debt. A real time database of fiscal indicators will be constructed to capture information available to policymakers when making decisions. Econometric analysis of the data will involve a flexible approach that captures how policy has changed in its focus on economic stabilisation and fiscal sustainability. The analysis also allows for forecasts of public debt that take into account the interaction between policy and the economy. The results and methods will be useful in evaluating the stance of fiscal policy and its implications for the sustainability of public debt.Read moreRead less
J.G. Crawford: Shaping Australia's Place in the World. Through a study of Sir John Grenfell (J.G.) Crawford, this project will examine transformations in Australian policy during the middle decades of the twentieth century. Crawford was a leading member of a generation of public servants who recast the practices of government, in this case through a particular focus on Australia's role in our region and among developing countries.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100693
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$405,458.00
Summary
Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy. The project aims to measure and understand the drivers of the financial cycle. As unsustainable financial conditions, such as excess credit, tend to precede financial cycle busts, which often eventuate into recessions, the project aims to also shed light on the interaction between the financial cycle and macroeconomy. These aims are expected to be achieved through the application of a new set of econometric tools to estimate and interpret financial cycles. ....Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy. The project aims to measure and understand the drivers of the financial cycle. As unsustainable financial conditions, such as excess credit, tend to precede financial cycle busts, which often eventuate into recessions, the project aims to also shed light on the interaction between the financial cycle and macroeconomy. These aims are expected to be achieved through the application of a new set of econometric tools to estimate and interpret financial cycles. The expected outcomes of this project include new insights for institutions such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and should provide significant benefit through the appropriate design of macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Uncertainty, financial frictions, and the Australian business cycle. This project aims to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of disruptions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty about the future. Key components of the project include new measures of uncertainty and development of new tools to estimate flexible empirical and structural models of uncertainty and financial frictions. The project expects to provide policymakers with tools to design effective policies to counteract ....Uncertainty, financial frictions, and the Australian business cycle. This project aims to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of disruptions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty about the future. Key components of the project include new measures of uncertainty and development of new tools to estimate flexible empirical and structural models of uncertainty and financial frictions. The project expects to provide policymakers with tools to design effective policies to counteract the effects of heightened uncertainty and financial disruptions. The results of this project are expected to put Australia at the frontier of the international scientific research on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty and financial frictions.Read moreRead less