A Principled Approach to Computer Simulation of Dynamic General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Models. In the last two decades a new generation of computer-intensive
modeling techniques has risen to prominence in macroeconomics. These
methods have broad policy applications, from public finance and
reserve bank operation to analysis of long-run productivity growth,
taxation reform, unemployment, international trade policy and natural
resource conservation. The size and complexity of these model ....A Principled Approach to Computer Simulation of Dynamic General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Models. In the last two decades a new generation of computer-intensive
modeling techniques has risen to prominence in macroeconomics. These
methods have broad policy applications, from public finance and
reserve bank operation to analysis of long-run productivity growth,
taxation reform, unemployment, international trade policy and natural
resource conservation. The size and complexity of these models means
that even computer-based techniques will rely for the foreseeable
future on efficient program design to solve them. The project will
construct a comprehensive set of solution techniques and software for
this class of macroeconomic models, including detailed mathematical
analysis on accuracy of model output.Read moreRead less
Modelling patient flows through hospitals: optimizing effective use of resources. Hospitals are complex, dynamic systems confronted by increased demand in the face of shrinking real capacity. Managing such systems is currently undertaken with sub-optimal analytical support, particularly when demand and capacity are changing and resources must be manipulated to respond to such changes. In this project, the investigators will apply a mathematical modelling approach to the analysis of hospital pati ....Modelling patient flows through hospitals: optimizing effective use of resources. Hospitals are complex, dynamic systems confronted by increased demand in the face of shrinking real capacity. Managing such systems is currently undertaken with sub-optimal analytical support, particularly when demand and capacity are changing and resources must be manipulated to respond to such changes. In this project, the investigators will apply a mathematical modelling approach to the analysis of hospital patient flows. Furthermore, they will employ statistical process control methodologies to the problem of recognising and responding to changes in the flows, so that performance objectives are met. In doing this, they will give health service managers and clinicians a significant advantage in deciding how best to manage a constrained resource to maximize access, throughput and patient outcomes.Read moreRead less
Quantitative and qualitative aspects of Asian and Australian options. While Asian options are highly popular and traded over the counter all over the world, they are traded on an institutional basis in only very few countries. Australia is one of them. Variable purchase options (VPO's), where the payoff is determined by the quotient of a stock and its average price, are traded on the Australian stock exchange since 1992. They build an important component of the Australian derivatives market and ....Quantitative and qualitative aspects of Asian and Australian options. While Asian options are highly popular and traded over the counter all over the world, they are traded on an institutional basis in only very few countries. Australia is one of them. Variable purchase options (VPO's), where the payoff is determined by the quotient of a stock and its average price, are traded on the Australian stock exchange since 1992. They build an important component of the Australian derivatives market and are particularly interesting for foreign investors, who are not able to find this sort of financial product on their domestic markets. A better understanding of these products is necessary to maximize the benefits for Australia's financial markets and economy. Read moreRead less
Who acquires infection from whom across international borders? New approaches for control of emerging infections through understanding travel patterns. Mathematical modelling of data on travellers traversing Australia's borders and their contact patterns can be used to understand the pathways by which infectious diseases enter and spread in Australia. Currently available social contact data which informs models are inadequate and outdated. Gathering new data relevant to modern society will help ....Who acquires infection from whom across international borders? New approaches for control of emerging infections through understanding travel patterns. Mathematical modelling of data on travellers traversing Australia's borders and their contact patterns can be used to understand the pathways by which infectious diseases enter and spread in Australia. Currently available social contact data which informs models are inadequate and outdated. Gathering new data relevant to modern society will help control future infectious disease threats to our society. Our aim is to collect detailed, unique data on demography, behavioural and social patterns of travellers and residents, and use this to develop mathematical models to evaluate effective control measures for emerging infections in Australia. This study will make a unique contribution to national disease control policy.Read moreRead less
Robust Optimal Asset Liability Management via Stochastic Control Theory. The Australian federal and state governments are strongly exposed to the Australian and international investment markets, either directly or through entities such as the Future Fund, state-owned insurers and superannuation schemes. Additionally, the investment pool represented by individual Australian's superannuation savings managed by non-government organisations is significant. Robust and effective management of these ....Robust Optimal Asset Liability Management via Stochastic Control Theory. The Australian federal and state governments are strongly exposed to the Australian and international investment markets, either directly or through entities such as the Future Fund, state-owned insurers and superannuation schemes. Additionally, the investment pool represented by individual Australian's superannuation savings managed by non-government organisations is significant. Robust and effective management of these assets in order to meet future liabilities of these funds are essential to a stable Australian economy. This research has the potential to be a key component of reliable investment management, helping make Australia an important investment hub.Read moreRead less
Practical, powerful and cost effective indicators of sustainable forest management for the conservation of biological diversity. Much debate about appropriate use of Australia's forests stems from uncertainty about the magnitude of impacts on abundances and distributions of forest-dependent species, a key indicator of sustainable management under the Montreal Process. An opportunity exists to develop new tools to substantially improve our ability to detect and assess change. This project will de ....Practical, powerful and cost effective indicators of sustainable forest management for the conservation of biological diversity. Much debate about appropriate use of Australia's forests stems from uncertainty about the magnitude of impacts on abundances and distributions of forest-dependent species, a key indicator of sustainable management under the Montreal Process. An opportunity exists to develop new tools to substantially improve our ability to detect and assess change. This project will develop optimal monitoring design and analysis strategies for detecting population trends against a background of natural fluctuation and observation error. It will result in templates for coherent reporting on indicators at regional and national levels. It will exploit recent findings regarding observation error in surveys, advances in statistical control processes, simulation methods, and power analysis to develop a world-class species monitoring system.Read moreRead less
Developing a robust model for pricing inter-related volatility-based financial derivative contracts. Volatility-based financial contracts were developed in the late 1990s to provide an easy way for investors to gain exposure to the future level of volatility and thus provide a means by which they could speculate on its future levels and also hedge unpredictable volatility risk. This would potentially save them from losing vast quantities of money. However these products can only be efficient pr ....Developing a robust model for pricing inter-related volatility-based financial derivative contracts. Volatility-based financial contracts were developed in the late 1990s to provide an easy way for investors to gain exposure to the future level of volatility and thus provide a means by which they could speculate on its future levels and also hedge unpredictable volatility risk. This would potentially save them from losing vast quantities of money. However these products can only be efficient products for trading and risk management if they are priced correctly. This project will benefit investors by providing empirically viable models that will be able to be easily implemented to provide accurate and fast pricing solutions.Read moreRead less
Option pricing via path integrals: a new perspective. The risk management of derivative securities is a very exciting challenge for financial market researchers. The knowledge base resulting from this proposal will benefit both large financial institutions and Australia's financial system by creating a more competitive and efficient economic environment, which will inevitably lead to more gross domestic product (GDP) gains.Furthermore a large amount of software and numerical analysis work to be ....Option pricing via path integrals: a new perspective. The risk management of derivative securities is a very exciting challenge for financial market researchers. The knowledge base resulting from this proposal will benefit both large financial institutions and Australia's financial system by creating a more competitive and efficient economic environment, which will inevitably lead to more gross domestic product (GDP) gains.Furthermore a large amount of software and numerical analysis work to be developed during the project can be turned into IP for Australia. This will contribute to catalysing development of internationally competitive financial risk management software industry.Read moreRead less
Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less
Innovative Methods for Very High Dimensional Problems. Real world problems tend to involve an enormous number of variables. This "curse of dimensionality" poses great difficulty in application areas such as statistics, finance, economics, and physics. These high dimensional problems are not confined to Australia, and there is great demand worldwide for effective and efficient methods to tackle these problems. The novel methods developed here will lead to improvements in prevailing computational ....Innovative Methods for Very High Dimensional Problems. Real world problems tend to involve an enormous number of variables. This "curse of dimensionality" poses great difficulty in application areas such as statistics, finance, economics, and physics. These high dimensional problems are not confined to Australia, and there is great demand worldwide for effective and efficient methods to tackle these problems. The novel methods developed here will lead to improvements in prevailing computational technologies, which will help to enhance Australia's reputation as a leading scientific innovator. The international collaborations will increase the research output of the country, build up the knowledge base in the discipline, draw international interest, and initiate linkages.Read moreRead less