Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less
Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
Innovative Technology for At-Scene Forensic Analysis using Microfluidics and Chemiluminescence. The major outcome of this project will be innovative reagents and strategies optimised for the detection of priority analytes such as drugs, explosives and chemical warfare agents. These will utilise a new technology platform based upon laboratory on a chip/microfluidics to enable the development of analytical methodologies suitable for use at crime scenes.This programme of research falls within a Nat ....Innovative Technology for At-Scene Forensic Analysis using Microfluidics and Chemiluminescence. The major outcome of this project will be innovative reagents and strategies optimised for the detection of priority analytes such as drugs, explosives and chemical warfare agents. These will utilise a new technology platform based upon laboratory on a chip/microfluidics to enable the development of analytical methodologies suitable for use at crime scenes.This programme of research falls within a National Research Priority namely 'Protecting Australia from terrorism and crime'. Through our current forensic science research collaboration the outcomes will build significantly on Australia's existing strengths in rapid detection using new analytical technologies.Read moreRead less
The presentation of expert evidence in Australian criminal trials: the role of lawyers and experts. This project will shed light on how courts, lawyers and experts can work effectively together to deliver expert evidence in the courtroom. Improving the provision and effective use of expert evidence will benefit the Australian community by providing a better quality criminal justice system.
Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually updat ....Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually update estimates of the probabilities of various outcomes of interest such as the winner of the match and the margin of victory. The project will assist Champion in their strategic aim to provide an on line form guide.Read moreRead less
Censored Regression Techniques for Credit Scoring. This project will apply censored regression techniques to a loans database from the industry partner, the ANZ bank. We will accurately estimate the actual time to loan repayment, rather than simply the risk of default. In a novel approach for credit scoring we will build a model using current, right-censored, rather than historic data, incorporating loans that are not yet repaid but are underway and clearly have a length of loan longer than obse ....Censored Regression Techniques for Credit Scoring. This project will apply censored regression techniques to a loans database from the industry partner, the ANZ bank. We will accurately estimate the actual time to loan repayment, rather than simply the risk of default. In a novel approach for credit scoring we will build a model using current, right-censored, rather than historic data, incorporating loans that are not yet repaid but are underway and clearly have a length of loan longer than observed. This approach has the immense advantage of being able to reflect contemporary borrowing patterns in the model, rather than relying on historic trends.
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Infill Developments: Project HOME (Housing Outcomes Metrics and Evaluation). The project plans to improve housing outcomes by evaluating housing design in the rapidly growing infill multi-residential sector, which often experiences design quality problems. Set across four global cities, the project aims to use a unique combination of design and social science methods to analyse good design and how this is produced and experienced. It is expected that this will deliver greater definition of and e ....Infill Developments: Project HOME (Housing Outcomes Metrics and Evaluation). The project plans to improve housing outcomes by evaluating housing design in the rapidly growing infill multi-residential sector, which often experiences design quality problems. Set across four global cities, the project aims to use a unique combination of design and social science methods to analyse good design and how this is produced and experienced. It is expected that this will deliver greater definition of and evidence for ‘good’ design as experienced through the real lives of Australian households. Outcomes should include robust design evaluation methods and transition strategies for cities, allowing city decision-makers to improve housing design for many people in Australian cities.Read moreRead less
Modelling patient flows through hospitals: optimizing effective use of resources. Hospitals are complex, dynamic systems confronted by increased demand in the face of shrinking real capacity. Managing such systems is currently undertaken with sub-optimal analytical support, particularly when demand and capacity are changing and resources must be manipulated to respond to such changes. In this project, the investigators will apply a mathematical modelling approach to the analysis of hospital pati ....Modelling patient flows through hospitals: optimizing effective use of resources. Hospitals are complex, dynamic systems confronted by increased demand in the face of shrinking real capacity. Managing such systems is currently undertaken with sub-optimal analytical support, particularly when demand and capacity are changing and resources must be manipulated to respond to such changes. In this project, the investigators will apply a mathematical modelling approach to the analysis of hospital patient flows. Furthermore, they will employ statistical process control methodologies to the problem of recognising and responding to changes in the flows, so that performance objectives are met. In doing this, they will give health service managers and clinicians a significant advantage in deciding how best to manage a constrained resource to maximize access, throughput and patient outcomes.Read moreRead less
The evolution of Australian enterprises, 1990 to 2007 : An empirical analysis of the relationship between turbulence among firms, productivity, growth and exports. This project will examine determinants and effects of enterprise entry and exit on growth, export and productivity in Australian industry using innovative panel enterprise data sets which have been collated and linked from existing ABS surveys, administrative data and accounting data. Currently, there is only one short longitudinal en ....The evolution of Australian enterprises, 1990 to 2007 : An empirical analysis of the relationship between turbulence among firms, productivity, growth and exports. This project will examine determinants and effects of enterprise entry and exit on growth, export and productivity in Australian industry using innovative panel enterprise data sets which have been collated and linked from existing ABS surveys, administrative data and accounting data. Currently, there is only one short longitudinal enterprise data set in Australia. Further data sets are required if policy makers are to understand patterns and causes of growth and business survival in Australia. Understanding provided from these studies should significantly improve our undertanding of how businesses perform.Read moreRead less
From entitlement to experiment: The new governance of welfare to work. This project aims to model and explain the governance dynamics of welfare to work in Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. Australia regularly undertakes major governance reforms in providing welfare to the unemployed and other groups in need. In this dynamic environment, welfare agencies are struggling to deliver benefits to the most disadvantaged people. Services must balance the need to meet central performance re ....From entitlement to experiment: The new governance of welfare to work. This project aims to model and explain the governance dynamics of welfare to work in Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. Australia regularly undertakes major governance reforms in providing welfare to the unemployed and other groups in need. In this dynamic environment, welfare agencies are struggling to deliver benefits to the most disadvantaged people. Services must balance the need to meet central performance requirements against the desire to help clients. The project aims to create a new framework for understanding how policy instruments and design experiments can improve services for those who are in need.Read moreRead less