Asset Market Interconnectedness and Exotic Options: The Mean Impact Surface. The project intends to develop models to price financial risk more accurately during periods of financial stress and increasing global interconnectedness. Specifically, it plans to develop a new class of latent factor models with time-varying loadings to model the interconnectedness of global financial markets during periods of financial stress. A key feature of the proposed model is the role of second-order conditional ....Asset Market Interconnectedness and Exotic Options: The Mean Impact Surface. The project intends to develop models to price financial risk more accurately during periods of financial stress and increasing global interconnectedness. Specifically, it plans to develop a new class of latent factor models with time-varying loadings to model the interconnectedness of global financial markets during periods of financial stress. A key feature of the proposed model is the role of second-order conditional moments of the underlying innovation processes in modelling asset return dynamics. The proposed model is characterised by higher order nonlinear structures which are captured graphically by the mean impact surface. The project also plans to develop a new class of tests to detect higher order dependencies among asset returns in the presence of time-varying volatility, and to investigate the implications for constructing portfolios with exotic options to hedge risk during financial crises.Read moreRead less
Dynamic Count Models of Financial Contagion with Applications to Global Banking and Currency Crises. An international model of contagion and interconnectedness is developed and applied using annual time series on banking and currency crises in developed and emerging countries. The model represents a new class of multivariate dynamic count models that allows for important dynamical interactions to capture the transmission of financial crises across national and international asset markets. The p ....Dynamic Count Models of Financial Contagion with Applications to Global Banking and Currency Crises. An international model of contagion and interconnectedness is developed and applied using annual time series on banking and currency crises in developed and emerging countries. The model represents a new class of multivariate dynamic count models that allows for important dynamical interactions to capture the transmission of financial crises across national and international asset markets. The properties of the models are investigated as well as the development of new estimation methods based on simulation techniques. An important implication of the approach is that it can be used as an early warning signal of future crises, thereby providing an input into the design of future policy on crisis management.Read moreRead less
A New Phase and New Issues of Rural-Urban Migration in China. China’s urbanisation has come to a turning point. The large pool of rural young workers (16-25 years of age), which fed the industrialisation needs of the 1990s and 2000s, has exhausted. Future growth needs to rely on the increase in the length of stay of the existing migrants and the increase in older new migrants. Due to this shift, the institutional restrictions, which deter family migration, become the key challenge. This project ....A New Phase and New Issues of Rural-Urban Migration in China. China’s urbanisation has come to a turning point. The large pool of rural young workers (16-25 years of age), which fed the industrialisation needs of the 1990s and 2000s, has exhausted. Future growth needs to rely on the increase in the length of stay of the existing migrants and the increase in older new migrants. Due to this shift, the institutional restrictions, which deter family migration, become the key challenge. This project examines the cost of the migration restrictions (shortened labour supply and reduced human capital accumulation for the current and next generation migrants: their education, health and pro-social behaviour); and the best way to reform the restrictions on family migration and the priority for the reform.Read moreRead less
The predictive, behavioural and economic forecasting performance of alternative credit risk and bankruptcy models: a global study. This study empirically evaluates a range of "new age" credit risk models using a large global sample of failed firms and bond ratings data. The study will provide a substantive body of empirical evidence to assist regulators, creditors, investors and other users assess the merits, strengths and limitations of alternative risk modelling approaches.
Massively parallel algorithms for Bayesian inference and decision making. This project uses the graphical processing units of desktop computers, originally developed for games and video, to enhance substantially the quantitative tools used on a daily basis by economists. It will develop procedures and software to enhance the reliability of economic predictions and policy.
Building economic development through psychosocial intervention. This project is the first study that reduces poverty and increases productivity in a post-conflict country by addressing the psychosocial problems that impede the capacity of a workforce to effectively learn and apply skills. Although conducted in Aceh, Indonesia, these findings may show how to reduce poverty in all countries affected by conflict.
Muir Torre Syndrome: The Role Of IHC And Genotyping In Sebaceous Neoplasia To Facilitate Prevention Strategies In Colorectal And Endometrial Cancer
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$396,786.00
Summary
Sebaceous neoplasia (SN), may be an early warning sign for Lynch syndrome (LS), an inherited cancer predisposition caused by mutations in a group of genes. There are high lifetime risks of bowel and uterine cancer, for which there are effective risk management plans if the risk is known. Clinicians are challenged by the role of SN in identifying LS. At present, it is hard to differentiate. We aim to determine features to improve the diagnosis of LS carriers.
The economics of cooperative behaviour. Free-riding and rent-seeking, such as tax avoidance and nepotism, are group-undermining activities that societies including Australia continuously struggle with. The aim of this project is to develop a fuller understanding of how to protect human groups from these socially damaging group-related behaviours. Drawing on a conceptual grounding that combines ideas from across social science, the project aims to implement a suite of economic experiments to deve ....The economics of cooperative behaviour. Free-riding and rent-seeking, such as tax avoidance and nepotism, are group-undermining activities that societies including Australia continuously struggle with. The aim of this project is to develop a fuller understanding of how to protect human groups from these socially damaging group-related behaviours. Drawing on a conceptual grounding that combines ideas from across social science, the project aims to implement a suite of economic experiments to develop a view of humans' cooperative behaviour that unites several strands of economics literature and offers new insights about how institutions that counter free-riding and rent-seeking arise and are maintained.Read moreRead less
The role of moral sentiments and emotions in human nature: an interdisciplinary empirical approach. This project investigates the effects of moral sentiments and emotions on decision processes. It will identify states of physiological arousal, determine whether a significant genetic effect is present, assess the relevance of individuals' environment and inherited values, and provide a better biological micro-foundation for human behaviour.
Strengthening economic resilience in Monsoon Asia. Sharing, reciprocity and resource pooling are at the frontline of recovery and relief when economic crisis or disaster hits Monsoon Asia. This research aims to shed light on cases where these economic practices have been innovatively harnessed to diversify livelihoods and build economic resilience. Working with contemporary Asian scholars, practitioners in the disaster field and a data set gleaned from multiple sources, including mid-20th centur ....Strengthening economic resilience in Monsoon Asia. Sharing, reciprocity and resource pooling are at the frontline of recovery and relief when economic crisis or disaster hits Monsoon Asia. This research aims to shed light on cases where these economic practices have been innovatively harnessed to diversify livelihoods and build economic resilience. Working with contemporary Asian scholars, practitioners in the disaster field and a data set gleaned from multiple sources, including mid-20th century tropical geography texts, the project aims to bring to the fore a regional landscape of diverse economic practices across Monsoon Asia. A cross-regional on-line knowledge community is expected to be formed to explore how this asset base might be mobilised towards more effective local development and disaster response.Read moreRead less