Prior sensitivity analysis for Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo output. This project aims to develop the first set of techniques to implement an automated output sensitivity analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods. Computationally intense Bayesian MCMC provide a powerful alternative to classical methods for the estimation of economic models. An obstacle to their wider application is that researchers need to specify prior beliefs about model parameters that will affect t ....Prior sensitivity analysis for Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo output. This project aims to develop the first set of techniques to implement an automated output sensitivity analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods. Computationally intense Bayesian MCMC provide a powerful alternative to classical methods for the estimation of economic models. An obstacle to their wider application is that researchers need to specify prior beliefs about model parameters that will affect the results. The expected outcomes will enable researchers to undertake a routine assessment of the sensitivity of the results to prior inputs.Read moreRead less
Asset Market Interconnectedness and Exotic Options: The Mean Impact Surface. The project intends to develop models to price financial risk more accurately during periods of financial stress and increasing global interconnectedness. Specifically, it plans to develop a new class of latent factor models with time-varying loadings to model the interconnectedness of global financial markets during periods of financial stress. A key feature of the proposed model is the role of second-order conditional ....Asset Market Interconnectedness and Exotic Options: The Mean Impact Surface. The project intends to develop models to price financial risk more accurately during periods of financial stress and increasing global interconnectedness. Specifically, it plans to develop a new class of latent factor models with time-varying loadings to model the interconnectedness of global financial markets during periods of financial stress. A key feature of the proposed model is the role of second-order conditional moments of the underlying innovation processes in modelling asset return dynamics. The proposed model is characterised by higher order nonlinear structures which are captured graphically by the mean impact surface. The project also plans to develop a new class of tests to detect higher order dependencies among asset returns in the presence of time-varying volatility, and to investigate the implications for constructing portfolios with exotic options to hedge risk during financial crises.Read moreRead less
Dynamic Count Models of Financial Contagion with Applications to Global Banking and Currency Crises. An international model of contagion and interconnectedness is developed and applied using annual time series on banking and currency crises in developed and emerging countries. The model represents a new class of multivariate dynamic count models that allows for important dynamical interactions to capture the transmission of financial crises across national and international asset markets. The p ....Dynamic Count Models of Financial Contagion with Applications to Global Banking and Currency Crises. An international model of contagion and interconnectedness is developed and applied using annual time series on banking and currency crises in developed and emerging countries. The model represents a new class of multivariate dynamic count models that allows for important dynamical interactions to capture the transmission of financial crises across national and international asset markets. The properties of the models are investigated as well as the development of new estimation methods based on simulation techniques. An important implication of the approach is that it can be used as an early warning signal of future crises, thereby providing an input into the design of future policy on crisis management.Read moreRead less
The predictive, behavioural and economic forecasting performance of alternative credit risk and bankruptcy models: a global study. This study empirically evaluates a range of "new age" credit risk models using a large global sample of failed firms and bond ratings data. The study will provide a substantive body of empirical evidence to assist regulators, creditors, investors and other users assess the merits, strengths and limitations of alternative risk modelling approaches.
Price Discovery in Equity and Volatility Futures for Trading and Hedging. This project aims to develop a multivariate asynchronous technique to analyse the price discovery of movements in equity stock indices, volatility index futures and exchange traded products. This project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of financial econometrics using an innovative mixed frequency sampling approach to establish robust causal inferences. Expected outcomes of the project include enhanced econome ....Price Discovery in Equity and Volatility Futures for Trading and Hedging. This project aims to develop a multivariate asynchronous technique to analyse the price discovery of movements in equity stock indices, volatility index futures and exchange traded products. This project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of financial econometrics using an innovative mixed frequency sampling approach to establish robust causal inferences. Expected outcomes of the project include enhanced econometric theory and its implementation in applied finance. This should provide significant benefits in the price discovery of the equity index in Australia, including insights that will help Australian funds in hedging and trading volatility.Read moreRead less
Massively parallel algorithms for Bayesian inference and decision making. This project uses the graphical processing units of desktop computers, originally developed for games and video, to enhance substantially the quantitative tools used on a daily basis by economists. It will develop procedures and software to enhance the reliability of economic predictions and policy.
The economics of cooperative behaviour. Free-riding and rent-seeking, such as tax avoidance and nepotism, are group-undermining activities that societies including Australia continuously struggle with. The aim of this project is to develop a fuller understanding of how to protect human groups from these socially damaging group-related behaviours. Drawing on a conceptual grounding that combines ideas from across social science, the project aims to implement a suite of economic experiments to deve ....The economics of cooperative behaviour. Free-riding and rent-seeking, such as tax avoidance and nepotism, are group-undermining activities that societies including Australia continuously struggle with. The aim of this project is to develop a fuller understanding of how to protect human groups from these socially damaging group-related behaviours. Drawing on a conceptual grounding that combines ideas from across social science, the project aims to implement a suite of economic experiments to develop a view of humans' cooperative behaviour that unites several strands of economics literature and offers new insights about how institutions that counter free-riding and rent-seeking arise and are maintained.Read moreRead less
Food system resilience in Indonesia: A moral economy approach. This project aims to understand and enhance food security in Indonesia and beyond. It examines culture-specific moral concepts, embedded in food systems and daily practices, that affect food security. For 60 years, the dominant approach to food security has been to boost supply by industrialising agriculture and liberalising trade, but this market-based approach has failed. One billion people are food insecure. The project will condu ....Food system resilience in Indonesia: A moral economy approach. This project aims to understand and enhance food security in Indonesia and beyond. It examines culture-specific moral concepts, embedded in food systems and daily practices, that affect food security. For 60 years, the dominant approach to food security has been to boost supply by industrialising agriculture and liberalising trade, but this market-based approach has failed. One billion people are food insecure. The project will conduct case studies of three food systems to examine how moral economies ameliorate market failures locally and how different rural development programs disrupt or enhance their capacity to do so. The data produced could inform food security-friendly development of trade policies and provide the evidence base for UN efforts toward a global food solidarity pact.Read moreRead less
Strengthening economic resilience in Monsoon Asia. Sharing, reciprocity and resource pooling are at the frontline of recovery and relief when economic crisis or disaster hits Monsoon Asia. This research aims to shed light on cases where these economic practices have been innovatively harnessed to diversify livelihoods and build economic resilience. Working with contemporary Asian scholars, practitioners in the disaster field and a data set gleaned from multiple sources, including mid-20th centur ....Strengthening economic resilience in Monsoon Asia. Sharing, reciprocity and resource pooling are at the frontline of recovery and relief when economic crisis or disaster hits Monsoon Asia. This research aims to shed light on cases where these economic practices have been innovatively harnessed to diversify livelihoods and build economic resilience. Working with contemporary Asian scholars, practitioners in the disaster field and a data set gleaned from multiple sources, including mid-20th century tropical geography texts, the project aims to bring to the fore a regional landscape of diverse economic practices across Monsoon Asia. A cross-regional on-line knowledge community is expected to be formed to explore how this asset base might be mobilised towards more effective local development and disaster response.Read moreRead less
Farmers of the Future: the Challenges of Feminised Agriculture in India. Neoliberal economic policies are fundamentally transforming the social landscapes of rural India, causing a deep agrarian crisis. The agrarian changes accentuate the unequal consequences for poor women and men in relation to: production (labour, tenure); livelihood and food security; access to and ownership of assets such as land and water and access to agricultural innovations and institutions. This multiscalar project inv ....Farmers of the Future: the Challenges of Feminised Agriculture in India. Neoliberal economic policies are fundamentally transforming the social landscapes of rural India, causing a deep agrarian crisis. The agrarian changes accentuate the unequal consequences for poor women and men in relation to: production (labour, tenure); livelihood and food security; access to and ownership of assets such as land and water and access to agricultural innovations and institutions. This multiscalar project investigates the causes and consequences of feminisation of agriculture in India’s transitioning economy in order to understand how gender roles and relations are being re-shaped in communities and households in diverse socioeconomic and cultural contexts and agro-ecological areas.Read moreRead less