Reducing flood loss - A data-assimilation framework for improving forecasting capability in sparsely gauged regions. Floods are the biggest and severest natural disaster we face year after year. Furthermore, there has been little improvement in our capability to prevent flood damage over past decades. This research proposes a paradigm shift in the way flood forecasting, warning and evacuation proceeds, using 21st century technologies for collecting and incorporating flood related data into exist ....Reducing flood loss - A data-assimilation framework for improving forecasting capability in sparsely gauged regions. Floods are the biggest and severest natural disaster we face year after year. Furthermore, there has been little improvement in our capability to prevent flood damage over past decades. This research proposes a paradigm shift in the way flood forecasting, warning and evacuation proceeds, using 21st century technologies for collecting and incorporating flood related data into existing modelling platforms. It is argued that assimilating real-time satellite soil moisture data into flood models can increase accuracy manifold, even if the images are uncertain. The understanding gained in course of the proposed project has the potential to significantly reduce the damage caused year after year, especially in the data poor regions of the world.Read moreRead less
Urban flood modelling at speed and scale. Frequent floods in urban areas cause damages comparable to extreme floods. This is likely to intensify with future urbanisation and climate change. Although Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) offers sustainable urban drainage solutions, there are no models that can select an optimal WSUD system to deliver on a set urban flood mitigation target. The project aims to develop a new generation of fast urban flood models and the-first-of-its-kind WSUD plannin ....Urban flood modelling at speed and scale. Frequent floods in urban areas cause damages comparable to extreme floods. This is likely to intensify with future urbanisation and climate change. Although Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) offers sustainable urban drainage solutions, there are no models that can select an optimal WSUD system to deliver on a set urban flood mitigation target. The project aims to develop a new generation of fast urban flood models and the-first-of-its-kind WSUD planning tool to support industry and governments to effectively reduce the urban flooding damages. The project outcomes are also applicable for advancing early warning systems and real-time control of floods.Read moreRead less
Linkage Infrastructure, Equipment And Facilities - Grant ID: LE130100136
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$340,000.00
Summary
Mobile weather radar system for advanced environmental monitoring and modelling. High spatial and temporal resolution weather radar data on wind and precipitation will translate to significant environmental model advances. Australian researchers will undertake model validation studies on precipitation, dust storm, and flood prediction under a wider range of environmental conditions and in greater detail than currently possible.
A framework for model emulation and ensemble modelling. For improved water resource management there is a need for further development of appropriate hydrologic models. This project will undertake a collection of hydrologic modelling activities performed at multiple catchments in Australia. A modeling framework that is flexible, extendible and accounts for potential forecast uncertainties will be developed.
A spatial extremes framework for predicting subdaily rainfall intensity. Climate change is causing extreme rainfall intensity to increase globally. The greatest increases occur for short-duration storms lasting up to several hours, bringing a heightened risk of flash-floods that are often extremely hazardous due to their rapid onset. The project aims to develop a new spatial extreme value framework to predict extreme rainfall patterns, using insights on future changes to rainfall triggering mech ....A spatial extremes framework for predicting subdaily rainfall intensity. Climate change is causing extreme rainfall intensity to increase globally. The greatest increases occur for short-duration storms lasting up to several hours, bringing a heightened risk of flash-floods that are often extremely hazardous due to their rapid onset. The project aims to develop a new spatial extreme value framework to predict extreme rainfall patterns, using insights on future changes to rainfall triggering mechanisms (e.g. convective, frontal or orographic). The research aims to provide projections in the form of intensity-frequency-duration curves, areal reduction factors and antecedent rainfall depths. Engineers are expected to use this information to design infrastructure and urban planning policies to adapt to future flood risk.Read moreRead less
Flooding in Australia – are we properly prepared for how bad it can get? This project aims to investigate how floods have varied over the past 2000 years. Floods are a recurrent and natural part of Australia’s hydroclimate and are influenced strongly by climate variability. However, these influences are not yet completely understood or accounted for. This project will use novel insights from 2000 years of climate reconstructions to generate new knowledge about how bad flooding can get and what c ....Flooding in Australia – are we properly prepared for how bad it can get? This project aims to investigate how floods have varied over the past 2000 years. Floods are a recurrent and natural part of Australia’s hydroclimate and are influenced strongly by climate variability. However, these influences are not yet completely understood or accounted for. This project will use novel insights from 2000 years of climate reconstructions to generate new knowledge about how bad flooding can get and what causes flood frequency to change over time. A decision-making framework that allows for all the uncertainties associated with managing floods will also be developed. This will provide a critical evaluation of the accuracy of existing flood estimates, and also the reliability of infrastructure and policy based on those estimates.Read moreRead less
Assessing future drought risk for water resources system management. The project aims to develop a new method for understanding drought drivers in eastern Australia and how well these are portrayed by climate models. The intended outcome of the project is to provide a framework for evaluating climate models on their representation of drought drivers and then use this information to develop improved downscaling schemes. Traditional downscaling approaches do not capture changes in variability in r ....Assessing future drought risk for water resources system management. The project aims to develop a new method for understanding drought drivers in eastern Australia and how well these are portrayed by climate models. The intended outcome of the project is to provide a framework for evaluating climate models on their representation of drought drivers and then use this information to develop improved downscaling schemes. Traditional downscaling approaches do not capture changes in variability in rainfall and evaporation at interannual and interdecadal timescales. This project aims to address this problem by providing a comprehensive drought downscaling framework which will provide inputs to water sharing plans that can be used to assess the future risks of droughts in catchments across New South Wales.Read moreRead less
Hydrologic effects of human and climatic stresses in water-limited areas: role of coevolving runoff, vegetation and landforms for adaptive management. Semiarid rangelands cover over 70 per cent of the Australian continent. These areas already face serious degradation problems. Observed trends in rainfall variability indicate that high rainfall pulses and dry periods will intensify, with serious implications for hydrology and erosion. The impact of these trends in addition to increasing human pre ....Hydrologic effects of human and climatic stresses in water-limited areas: role of coevolving runoff, vegetation and landforms for adaptive management. Semiarid rangelands cover over 70 per cent of the Australian continent. These areas already face serious degradation problems. Observed trends in rainfall variability indicate that high rainfall pulses and dry periods will intensify, with serious implications for hydrology and erosion. The impact of these trends in addition to increasing human pressures could have devastating socioeconomic consequences for these areas. This project, by examining in detail the hydrologic and soil transport processes in semiarid rangelands, will lead to: better understanding of the dryland response to anthropogenic and climatic stresses; and, improvement of strategies and methods for the management and restoration of these areas.Read moreRead less
A new strategy for design flood estimation in a nonstationary climate. Evidence suggests that global warming will result in an increase in the frequency and/or magnitude of heavy rainfall, leading to flooding with potentially devastating consequences. This study provides a renewed focus on design flood estimation that takes into account a changing climate where assumptions of stationarity are no longer tenable.