Financial crises, volatility and sovereign ratings: Do ratings really matter when they are needed most? The stability of Australian financial markets during the Asian financial crisis is a major economic success story. Subsequently, an important policy objective has been in enhancing the capacity of the financial infrastructure in regional financial markets to reduce their exposure to such crises. Recent financial market turmoil dramatically underscores the need to better understand the full myr ....Financial crises, volatility and sovereign ratings: Do ratings really matter when they are needed most? The stability of Australian financial markets during the Asian financial crisis is a major economic success story. Subsequently, an important policy objective has been in enhancing the capacity of the financial infrastructure in regional financial markets to reduce their exposure to such crises. Recent financial market turmoil dramatically underscores the need to better understand the full myriad of factors that feed into this challenging concern. One critical area of debate is whether or not rating agencies play a calming role. This project will deliver insights that aid development of the financial infrastructure to cope better with such crises and retain investor confidence.Read moreRead less
New approaches for testing in nonlinear models. The outcome of this project is a new econometric methodology that will be particularly useful for developing our understanding of Australian (and global) financial markets. Specific benefits are that (i) our value-at-risk models will enhance national and international awareness of issues relating to financial risk management; (ii) our exchange rate pass through model will aid the development of Australian trade and pricing policies and (iii) our du ....New approaches for testing in nonlinear models. The outcome of this project is a new econometric methodology that will be particularly useful for developing our understanding of Australian (and global) financial markets. Specific benefits are that (i) our value-at-risk models will enhance national and international awareness of issues relating to financial risk management; (ii) our exchange rate pass through model will aid the development of Australian trade and pricing policies and (iii) our duration models for trade in Australian stocks will lead to a better understanding of the microstructure of the Australian stock market.Read moreRead less
Modelling multivariate financial time series using copulas. What are the chances that the losses in the market value of investments exceed the anticipated levels? Given that one country's financial market collapsed, what are the chances that it would lead to financial crises in other countries? These questions often arise in risk management and international finance. This project takes a significant step forward from the existing literature to develop new flexible and innovative methods to an ....Modelling multivariate financial time series using copulas. What are the chances that the losses in the market value of investments exceed the anticipated levels? Given that one country's financial market collapsed, what are the chances that it would lead to financial crises in other countries? These questions often arise in risk management and international finance. This project takes a significant step forward from the existing literature to develop new flexible and innovative methods to answer the foregoing type of questions. Further, this project proposes new measures of market risks that are suitable for communicating to the broader public as well as the experts.Read moreRead less
Sins of the Fathers - The Role of Reputation in Capital Market Integration and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime. This project investigates, theoretically and empirically, how past and present reputation for monetary policy credibility influences a country's choice of exchange rate regime and its ability to borrow internationally in domestic currency. The inability of emerging market countries to borrow in domestic currency is an important source of global financial instability, and the study c ....Sins of the Fathers - The Role of Reputation in Capital Market Integration and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime. This project investigates, theoretically and empirically, how past and present reputation for monetary policy credibility influences a country's choice of exchange rate regime and its ability to borrow internationally in domestic currency. The inability of emerging market countries to borrow in domestic currency is an important source of global financial instability, and the study contributes to an understanding of how policymakers can better facilitate the process of international financial integration. By introducing new advances in the theory of reputation into models of exchange rate crises and examining lessons from Australian financial history, the research brings a fresh perspective to existing analyses of financial crises.Read moreRead less
Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates. Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward ....Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates. Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward which this project is directed, will better guide investment in the region, including in Australia, and more importantly, it will better inform future policy debates surrounding currency movements.Read moreRead less
Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set o ....Nonlinear Econometric Modelling: A Complex Systems Perspective. It is becoming increasingly accepted that economic systems are both complex and adaptive. However, this introduces a range of problems in constructing, estimating and testing economic models using time series data. In this project, this problem will be addressed through the formulation and implementation of a new methodology and associated techniques. These techniques will allow a researcher to use information obtained from a set of nonlinearity tests to determine which type of nonlinear model provides the best representation of a data generating mechanism. Selected high frequency financial and macroeconomic data (for the US and Australia) will be used in the study. This research is intended to change the direction and emphasis of econometric modelling and promises to have a fundamental impact on forecasting and policy evaluation methods.
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The World Economy, India and Exchange Banks: 1850 - 1914. This project aims to examine how exchange banks linked India to an expanding world economy between 1850 and 1914, and to show, in turn, how this process was defined by an imperial relationship that tied India to Britain. Its significance lies in the fact that while the exchange banks were central to the circulation of capital during this period, their crucial role in shaping the development of capitalism in India has been largely ignored. ....The World Economy, India and Exchange Banks: 1850 - 1914. This project aims to examine how exchange banks linked India to an expanding world economy between 1850 and 1914, and to show, in turn, how this process was defined by an imperial relationship that tied India to Britain. Its significance lies in the fact that while the exchange banks were central to the circulation of capital during this period, their crucial role in shaping the development of capitalism in India has been largely ignored. Expected outcomes include conference presentations, at least three articles, a monograph, and a digitised map that links time and space in outlining the spread of such banks.Read moreRead less
Information Content of Order Flows in the Foreign Exchange and Commodities Markets. The Australian economy depends heavily on resources and commodities markets. The Australian dollar is the sixth most actively traded currency in the world and is more volatile than all other major currencies except the Japanese yen. The proposed study seeks to improve volatility forecasts and hedging effectiveness for foreign exchange and commodity risks, which will create significant benefits for the Australian ....Information Content of Order Flows in the Foreign Exchange and Commodities Markets. The Australian economy depends heavily on resources and commodities markets. The Australian dollar is the sixth most actively traded currency in the world and is more volatile than all other major currencies except the Japanese yen. The proposed study seeks to improve volatility forecasts and hedging effectiveness for foreign exchange and commodity risks, which will create significant benefits for the Australian economy, corporations, and investors. In addition, the project will enhance investment performance and risk management practice of financial institutions, improving the overall safety of our financial system. It will also foster research culture and increase research capacity of Australian financial institutions.Read moreRead less
IMPROVING THE THEORETICAL COHERENCE OF DATA-DRIVEN VAR MODELS. The project seeks to improve the tradeoff between theoretical and empirical coherence that is often present in empirical macroeconomic models. Using existing Australian models the project examines appropriate means of imposing theoretical restrictions on empirically coherent Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. Building on work by the authors, an improved VAR model of the Australian economy will be developed. This model will be used t ....IMPROVING THE THEORETICAL COHERENCE OF DATA-DRIVEN VAR MODELS. The project seeks to improve the tradeoff between theoretical and empirical coherence that is often present in empirical macroeconomic models. Using existing Australian models the project examines appropriate means of imposing theoretical restrictions on empirically coherent Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. Building on work by the authors, an improved VAR model of the Australian economy will be developed. This model will be used to assess particularly the impact of asset prices on inflation and economic performance over the past two decades. Further attention will be paid to assessing the role of monetary policy in the Australian economy.Read moreRead less
Noisy Parity Relationships in International Macroeconomic Models. Macroeconomic models of the Australian economy play a key role in the design of monetary and fiscal policy. Policymakers use these models either implicitly or explicitly, and usually begin to learn about them in principles courses. Parity relationships are foundation elements of these models, and have powerful implications for our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. Classical statistical tests may have falsely led to an unhea ....Noisy Parity Relationships in International Macroeconomic Models. Macroeconomic models of the Australian economy play a key role in the design of monetary and fiscal policy. Policymakers use these models either implicitly or explicitly, and usually begin to learn about them in principles courses. Parity relationships are foundation elements of these models, and have powerful implications for our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. Classical statistical tests may have falsely led to an unhealthy agnosticism regarding many of these relationships. This research will bring more appropriate statistical techniques to bear upon the problem, and if successful will restore confidence in decision-making processes and the relevance and applicability of macroeconomic models. Read moreRead less