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Stochastic modelling of spatiotemporal nonlinear diffusion processes with multifractal characteristics. This research is relevant to solute transport and plume evolution in heterogeneous media. Detailed modelling of these processes is computer-intensive, while the diffusion models of this project offer a more economical alternative. Our study will also benefit the research on the salinity problem. Excessive demand for irrigation water to support agricultural production has stretched freshwater a ....Stochastic modelling of spatiotemporal nonlinear diffusion processes with multifractal characteristics. This research is relevant to solute transport and plume evolution in heterogeneous media. Detailed modelling of these processes is computer-intensive, while the diffusion models of this project offer a more economical alternative. Our study will also benefit the research on the salinity problem. Excessive demand for irrigation water to support agricultural production has stretched freshwater aquifers beyond their long-term yield. Large areas of land have been lost to saltwater intrusion. This proposal will provide suitable tools to predict the level and movement of saltwater in the aquifers. Application to the development of management strategies would bring direct benefit to coastal areas where salinity is a sustainability issue.Read moreRead less
The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of ....The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of complexity arising in climate change involve issues on which we do not possess a deep understanding. This project draws upon a set of inter-disciplinary concepts and models centred in neural networks that enable us to advance our understanding of complexity, leading to superior quantitative tools and models to allow for improved environmental decision-making.
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Statistical estimation and approximation of anomalous diffusion. This project investigates diffusion processes with long memory, heavy-tailed distributions and higher-order information. Each of these characteristics has been a subject of extensive current research. These processes arise in important applications with significant social/economic benefits such as heat conduction and fluid flow in porous media, propagation of seismic waves, transport of drug molecules in living tissues. Built on ou ....Statistical estimation and approximation of anomalous diffusion. This project investigates diffusion processes with long memory, heavy-tailed distributions and higher-order information. Each of these characteristics has been a subject of extensive current research. These processes arise in important applications with significant social/economic benefits such as heat conduction and fluid flow in porous media, propagation of seismic waves, transport of drug molecules in living tissues. Built on our recent fundamental developments of fractional generalised random fields and fractional diffusion equations, this project tackles the key problems of statistical estimation, approximation and prediction of diffusion processes with all the above characteristics in a unified framework not provided by other approaches.Read moreRead less
The dynamics of turbulent entrainment in sheared convective boundary layers. This project aims to develop general laws to enable the accurate prediction of boundary layer entrainment processes. This will be significant in a wide range of environmental and engineering applications. In particular, the current lack of understanding of this area is a major source of uncertainty in the latest generation of global climate models.
New approach to turbulent combustion modelling based on Multiple Mapping Conditioning. The project ensures that Australia remains at the front line of international development of new tools and approaches designed to model turbulent combustion. Improvements in modelling techniques will have a direct effect on optimisation of the industrial energy production from conventional sources and will assist in resolving the associated ecological issues. The project will also train several researches to b ....New approach to turbulent combustion modelling based on Multiple Mapping Conditioning. The project ensures that Australia remains at the front line of international development of new tools and approaches designed to model turbulent combustion. Improvements in modelling techniques will have a direct effect on optimisation of the industrial energy production from conventional sources and will assist in resolving the associated ecological issues. The project will also train several researches to be qualified to work at the frontiers of modern combustion modelling in gaseous flows.Read moreRead less
Bayesian Statistical Inference for Implicitly defined Probability Models. Bayesian statistics has recently been used to provide solutions for a large number of hitherto intractable problems in science and technology. The success of Bayesian statistics has mainly been due to the application of so-called Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques. We aim to improve these algorithms, by providing fast, simple and efficient computational implementations. We will use the results to give ins ....Bayesian Statistical Inference for Implicitly defined Probability Models. Bayesian statistics has recently been used to provide solutions for a large number of hitherto intractable problems in science and technology. The success of Bayesian statistics has mainly been due to the application of so-called Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques. We aim to improve these algorithms, by providing fast, simple and efficient computational implementations. We will use the results to give insight by carefully quantifying and modelling uncertainty for such topics as the transmission rate of infectious diseases, the spatial distribution of plant and animal species, investigating biological theory for the genome of a virus, and changes in human fertility.Read moreRead less
Reactivity and photochemistry of halide anions: atmospheric implications. Bromine and iodine are suspected to be responsible for most of the halogen-induced ozone loss in the stratosphere but are not currently included in atmospheric models due to a paucity of knowledge of the gas-phase chemistry and photochemistry of their anions and radicals. This project will develop and deploy advanced mass spectrometry and laser spectroscopy techniques to enable precision measurements of the reactions and p ....Reactivity and photochemistry of halide anions: atmospheric implications. Bromine and iodine are suspected to be responsible for most of the halogen-induced ozone loss in the stratosphere but are not currently included in atmospheric models due to a paucity of knowledge of the gas-phase chemistry and photochemistry of their anions and radicals. This project will develop and deploy advanced mass spectrometry and laser spectroscopy techniques to enable precision measurements of the reactions and photo-reactions of gas-phase iodide and bromide anions and their oxides. These state-of-the-art measurements of reaction kinetics and products will enable accurate chemical models that predict the impact of bromine and iodine chemistry on ozone levels and will inform future models for global climate.Read moreRead less
New Methods in the Theory and Computational Modelling of Unimolecular and Complex-Forming Bimolecular Reactions. This project will develop new theory and computational methods for the prediction of chemical reaction rates with massively increased efficiency. Complex reactions occurring in combustion which are surprisingly common, but have previously been only poorly understood. The project will make possible the application of detailed statistical and quantum dynamical theories to such complex r ....New Methods in the Theory and Computational Modelling of Unimolecular and Complex-Forming Bimolecular Reactions. This project will develop new theory and computational methods for the prediction of chemical reaction rates with massively increased efficiency. Complex reactions occurring in combustion which are surprisingly common, but have previously been only poorly understood. The project will make possible the application of detailed statistical and quantum dynamical theories to such complex reactions in order to improve the quality of chemical data which is used for modelling atmospheric change and pollution.
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New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticip ....New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticipated outcomes of this project will be detailed knowledge of extremal behaviour in portfolios, improved methods for calibrating risk, advances in non-parametric methods in finance, a prototype practitioner toolkit for assessing risk, and high-calibre graduates to contribute to Australia's research capacity.Read moreRead less
Improved Monte Carlo Methods for Estimation, Optimisation and Counting. The project will benefit the Australian society by building the theoretical and methodological foundations for the next generation of Monte Carlo techniques. The advancement of the knowledge in this area will provide important tools for solving complex estimation, optimisation and counting problems in engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics and the physical and life sciences. As a result it will generate a com ....Improved Monte Carlo Methods for Estimation, Optimisation and Counting. The project will benefit the Australian society by building the theoretical and methodological foundations for the next generation of Monte Carlo techniques. The advancement of the knowledge in this area will provide important tools for solving complex estimation, optimisation and counting problems in engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics and the physical and life sciences. As a result it will generate a competitive advantage for various sections of the Australian industry, including telecommunications, biotechnology and finance. The project will enable Australian researchers to continue to work at the forefront of this fast moving and exciting area of international research.Read moreRead less