Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The primary objective of this project is to develop efficient algorithms for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated and exact maximum likelihood. The research will draw on both parametric and non-parametric analysis in novel ways to construct estimation procedures that are computationally feasible. These methods will then be applied in the area of finance and used to ....Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The primary objective of this project is to develop efficient algorithms for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated and exact maximum likelihood. The research will draw on both parametric and non-parametric analysis in novel ways to construct estimation procedures that are computationally feasible. These methods will then be applied in the area of finance and used to estimate the parameters of stochastic-volatility models, thus contributing to knowledge in a prominent area of complex systems, namely financial risk. The execution of this collaborative project will deliver quality research training in the topical area of mathematical finance and produce high-calibre postgraduates.
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Understanding and Modelling Weather Derivatives in Australia for the Purpose of their Accurate Pricing: a Statistical and Econometric Investigation. Australia suffers some of the most adverse and extreme weather globally. Its government and industries, especially agriculture and electricity, stand to benefit from improved understanding of weather derivatives and capability to price them accurately. Tailored to Australian weather scenarios, weather derivatives will be tools to manage local risk f ....Understanding and Modelling Weather Derivatives in Australia for the Purpose of their Accurate Pricing: a Statistical and Econometric Investigation. Australia suffers some of the most adverse and extreme weather globally. Its government and industries, especially agriculture and electricity, stand to benefit from improved understanding of weather derivatives and capability to price them accurately. Tailored to Australian weather scenarios, weather derivatives will be tools to manage local risk factors, and increase global competitiveness by hedging against competitors' good weather-related advantage. The US weather derivative market, capitalised at over US$7.5b, began just 7 years ago; there is no organised Australian market. This project's smart techniques for improving pricing accuracy will support the development and vigorous growth of a local market.Read moreRead less
New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticip ....New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticipated outcomes of this project will be detailed knowledge of extremal behaviour in portfolios, improved methods for calibrating risk, advances in non-parametric methods in finance, a prototype practitioner toolkit for assessing risk, and high-calibre graduates to contribute to Australia's research capacity.Read moreRead less
Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as vo ....Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as volatility in price series, extremal (risky) behaviour of financial systems, and turning points of the business cycle. Discoveries will be disseminated through published papers and presentations at a major international conference. Ongoing e-research links with France will also be established.Read moreRead less
Advertising and Drinking: Does it Matter? The Health profession and various community groups have been demanding the government introduce new alcohol advertising policies that aim to reduce the social cost and misery associated with the misuse of alcohol (estimated to cost Australians about $8 billion, cause about 3,300 deaths and 72,000 hospitalisations annually) and to maintain the health and future well-being of Australians. This project will assess the impact of current advertising policies ....Advertising and Drinking: Does it Matter? The Health profession and various community groups have been demanding the government introduce new alcohol advertising policies that aim to reduce the social cost and misery associated with the misuse of alcohol (estimated to cost Australians about $8 billion, cause about 3,300 deaths and 72,000 hospitalisations annually) and to maintain the health and future well-being of Australians. This project will assess the impact of current advertising policies and the impact of a possible ban on alcohol advertising on the level of alcohol consumption in Australia. The results will be useful to the Australian government, the Australian community and the alcohol industry in developing new advertising policies that aim to reduce alcohol consumption.Read moreRead less
The importance of price and perceived quality to the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables. It is estimated that the direct and indirect cost of diet-related diseases to Australia is between $2-3 billion per annum. One of the most important things that can be done to prevent diet-related disease is to encourage the population to eat more fruits and vegetables. The aim of this project is to examine the effect of price and perceived quality on the type and quantity of fruits and vegetables cons ....The importance of price and perceived quality to the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables. It is estimated that the direct and indirect cost of diet-related diseases to Australia is between $2-3 billion per annum. One of the most important things that can be done to prevent diet-related disease is to encourage the population to eat more fruits and vegetables. The aim of this project is to examine the effect of price and perceived quality on the type and quantity of fruits and vegetables consumed, especially among low-income households. The project will employ modelling techniques that are novel to this product group and that will provide valuable insights to the constraints and opportunities for increasing fruits and vegetables intake, as well as benchmarks for future research.Read moreRead less
The Sustainability of Agricultural Productivity Growth in a Changing Environment: An International Perspective. The project could provide significant benefits to Australia. Australia is a dry continent with fragile natural resources, and a significant exporter of agricultural products. A sound knowledge of the factors that affect agricultural sustainability is crucial. Perhaps more importantly, identifying economic, environmental, social, institutional and political factors that influence agric ....The Sustainability of Agricultural Productivity Growth in a Changing Environment: An International Perspective. The project could provide significant benefits to Australia. Australia is a dry continent with fragile natural resources, and a significant exporter of agricultural products. A sound knowledge of the factors that affect agricultural sustainability is crucial. Perhaps more importantly, identifying economic, environmental, social, institutional and political factors that influence agricultural sustainability in other countries, especially our Asian neighbours, will provide valuable information to relevant agencies in designing strategies aimed at ensuring that these countries are stable and well fed. This is of particular importance in the current climate, with growing influences of terrorist organisations in places where poverty exists.Read moreRead less
Mining venture risk: novel econometric methods to integrate joint financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The mining industry is nationally important: it contributed $33,927M to Australia's GDP in 2002-3. This project's outcomes - sophisticated statistical and econometric tools - will significantly improve capability for forecasting overall risk to mining projects requiring vast upfront, irreversible investments, and contribute to its efficiency and internati ....Mining venture risk: novel econometric methods to integrate joint financial and geological uncertainty into dynamic risk forecasting measures. The mining industry is nationally important: it contributed $33,927M to Australia's GDP in 2002-3. This project's outcomes - sophisticated statistical and econometric tools - will significantly improve capability for forecasting overall risk to mining projects requiring vast upfront, irreversible investments, and contribute to its efficiency and international competitiveness. Innovative methods driven by data from complex financial and geological systems will integrate price volatility risk and orebody uncertainty in a real options framework, providing holistic, rigorous measurement of mining venture risk. Xstrata Queensland Ltd will strongly support and participate in research training of an identified candidate to deliver discoveries to the wider industry.Read moreRead less
ARC Financial Integrity Research Network. The integrity of the financial system is constantly under stress because of the development of ever more complex financial instruments, structures and strategies, and the associated research technologies that continues to accelerate worldwide. FIRN's vision is to harness the considerable strengths of Australia's internationally renowned finance, accounting and economics researchers into a research agenda to address issues concerning the integrity of the ....ARC Financial Integrity Research Network. The integrity of the financial system is constantly under stress because of the development of ever more complex financial instruments, structures and strategies, and the associated research technologies that continues to accelerate worldwide. FIRN's vision is to harness the considerable strengths of Australia's internationally renowned finance, accounting and economics researchers into a research agenda to address issues concerning the integrity of the financial system. It will enable Australian research in this area to match the scale and impact of similar research in other major international financial centres, and play an essential role in placing Australia among the world's leaders in financial markets related research.Read moreRead less
Robust Productivity Measurement: An Econometric Distance Function Approach. Accurate measures of productivity are required in a range of economic analyses. For example, in the assessment of the success of microeconomic reforms, or in price-cap regulation of utility and transport infrastructure firms. In this project we investigate the use of econometric distance functions as a means of obtaining improved productivity measures. This new approach addresses the main criticisms of alternative ap ....Robust Productivity Measurement: An Econometric Distance Function Approach. Accurate measures of productivity are required in a range of economic analyses. For example, in the assessment of the success of microeconomic reforms, or in price-cap regulation of utility and transport infrastructure firms. In this project we investigate the use of econometric distance functions as a means of obtaining improved productivity measures. This new approach addresses the main criticisms of alternative approaches, such as the single output restriction in the production function approach, the optimisation assumptions embedded in both the value dual approach and the Törnqvist index approach, and the statistical noise criticism of the data envelopment analysis approach.Read moreRead less