Optimal Source Control in Urban Water Cycle Management. Major opportunities exist to improve the management of the urban water cycle by better use of source control technology such as the use of rainwater tanks and water-sensitive design. This program will optimise the use of this technology at three scales, allotment, subdivision and regional, using genetic algorithms, parallel computing and shadow pricing. The aim is to minimise community lifecycle costs subject to sustainable use of ecosystem ....Optimal Source Control in Urban Water Cycle Management. Major opportunities exist to improve the management of the urban water cycle by better use of source control technology such as the use of rainwater tanks and water-sensitive design. This program will optimise the use of this technology at three scales, allotment, subdivision and regional, using genetic algorithms, parallel computing and shadow pricing. The aim is to minimise community lifecycle costs subject to sustainable use of ecosystems and maintenance of public health standards. The benefits include national savings of the order of $2 billion and significantly reduced demand on water supply and stormwater infrastructure and its supporting ecosystems.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing pre-20th century rainfall, temperature and pressure for south-eastern Australia using palaeoclimate, documentary and early weather station data. South-eastern Australia is in the grip of a severe water crisis due to the worst drought in recorded history and increasing temperatures. This landmark project brings together a team of Australia's leading climate scientists, water managers and historians with the common goal of reconstructing south-eastern Australia's climate history. Th ....Reconstructing pre-20th century rainfall, temperature and pressure for south-eastern Australia using palaeoclimate, documentary and early weather station data. South-eastern Australia is in the grip of a severe water crisis due to the worst drought in recorded history and increasing temperatures. This landmark project brings together a team of Australia's leading climate scientists, water managers and historians with the common goal of reconstructing south-eastern Australia's climate history. The greatly extended record of annual rainfall and temperature variability will allow better planning for water storage and use, and improved testing of climate model simulations. Improving our understanding of the historical impacts of climate extremes on society will assist with planning for life in a hotter and drier future.Read moreRead less
Understanding the effect of small-scale ocean process on tuna populations – a new tool to forecast tuna distributions for use in fisheries management. The western and central Pacific Ocean supports the world’s largest tuna fishery with catches contributing up to 40 per cent of revenue for many Pacific communities. These nations are dependent on these fisheries for livelihoods and economic development. Continued sustainable management of this valuable resource in the face of rapid population grow ....Understanding the effect of small-scale ocean process on tuna populations – a new tool to forecast tuna distributions for use in fisheries management. The western and central Pacific Ocean supports the world’s largest tuna fishery with catches contributing up to 40 per cent of revenue for many Pacific communities. These nations are dependent on these fisheries for livelihoods and economic development. Continued sustainable management of this valuable resource in the face of rapid population growth and climate variability and change is a challenge. Using observationally derived information of skipjack tuna, the project aims to develop a novel tuna behavioural model. This is intended to be integrated into a state-of-the-art biophysical model at resolutions capable of reproducing critical meso-scale processes, providing projections of tuna distributions that aim to aid in developing sustainable management practices.Read moreRead less
Unlocking the environmental archives of the Kimberley’s past. This project aims to reconstruct the environmental history of Australia’s Kimberley region spanning the past 60,000 years. Through a multidisciplinary approach, the project will provide new understanding of the causes of environmental change and impacts on this region since the arrival of Australia’s earliest inhabitants. This will inform the development of conservation policy to ensure preservation of the region's globally significan ....Unlocking the environmental archives of the Kimberley’s past. This project aims to reconstruct the environmental history of Australia’s Kimberley region spanning the past 60,000 years. Through a multidisciplinary approach, the project will provide new understanding of the causes of environmental change and impacts on this region since the arrival of Australia’s earliest inhabitants. This will inform the development of conservation policy to ensure preservation of the region's globally significant rock art against environmental change and economic development.
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Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
Integrating past ice sheet dynamics with palaeoclimate in the Weddell Sea sector to evaluate current and future change in Antarctica. This project will extend historical records of change and understand the complex linkages between Antarctic climate and ice sheet dynamics, thereby assisting in: (i) identifying the mechanisms of past and future ice sheet stability, and (ii) communicating the research outputs to the general public, helping scientific understanding.
Improved seasonal rainfall prediction for grain growers using farm level data and novel modelling. Successful grain production, a key export commodity for Australia, depends heavily on reliable seasonal forecasts. However, the highly variable climate means that for Australia’s 25,000 grain growers current forecasts lack detail in space and time. Using a combination of fuzzy classification and artificial neural networks, this project will develop a locally detailed continuously updating data-driv ....Improved seasonal rainfall prediction for grain growers using farm level data and novel modelling. Successful grain production, a key export commodity for Australia, depends heavily on reliable seasonal forecasts. However, the highly variable climate means that for Australia’s 25,000 grain growers current forecasts lack detail in space and time. Using a combination of fuzzy classification and artificial neural networks, this project will develop a locally detailed continuously updating data-driven seasonal forecast system using high density climate data from the 17,000 Grain Growers Association members and climate drivers such as sea surface temperature from the Bureau of Meteorology. After validation against observed data, the forecasts will be delivered via a web-based portal to users.Read moreRead less
A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time Scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resource Planning. Assessments of future drought risks are dependent on simulations of hydrological inputs provided by stochastic models. The current models are limited to simulating variability at a single time scale using only local observed hydrological data. This data has only limited information on the long-term climate variability which is the cause of long-term severe droughts. The proposed ....A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time Scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resource Planning. Assessments of future drought risks are dependent on simulations of hydrological inputs provided by stochastic models. The current models are limited to simulating variability at a single time scale using only local observed hydrological data. This data has only limited information on the long-term climate variability which is the cause of long-term severe droughts. The proposed research will develop a new Bayesian framework for simulating multi-time scale variability in hydrological data. This will enable the dynamic processes which simulate long-term variability to be identified using auxiliary information in an uncertainty framework. This will provide water resource planners with more accurate assessments of long-term drought risks.
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Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our con ....Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our confidence in future projections of carbon and vegetation change. Our proposal, linking Universities, CSIRO and the Australian Greenhouse Office establishes a team that is internationally competitive. It will enhance local expertise and local model development to ensure national policy development is underpinned by world-class science.Read moreRead less
Transforming our research capacity in the analysis of climate extremes. Given their devastating impacts, there is now a critical urgency to understand what drives extreme climate events and make timely predictions of their future risk. The analysis of comprehensive extremes datasets, comprising global observations and output of multi-model simulations, will greatly improve our ability to answer fundamental questions about the nature and variability of extreme climatic events. This project also e ....Transforming our research capacity in the analysis of climate extremes. Given their devastating impacts, there is now a critical urgency to understand what drives extreme climate events and make timely predictions of their future risk. The analysis of comprehensive extremes datasets, comprising global observations and output of multi-model simulations, will greatly improve our ability to answer fundamental questions about the nature and variability of extreme climatic events. This project also ensures the government's continued commitment to managing the risks associated with extreme events as an urgent national priority. It represents a landmark opportunity for Australian leadership of an international collaboration between some of the world's leading climate scientists and climate data and modelling centres.Read moreRead less