Why is (re)development hot?: Measuring cumulative heat in Australian cities. Incremental (re)development of Australia’s residential areas occurs piecemeal, with varied planning oversight, and results in potentially harmful cumulative warming. This project aims to causally identify the warming effect of residential (re)development and investigate the impact of planning policies that control changes in the built form associated with increased heat exposure. Using large geospatial datasets and a qu ....Why is (re)development hot?: Measuring cumulative heat in Australian cities. Incremental (re)development of Australia’s residential areas occurs piecemeal, with varied planning oversight, and results in potentially harmful cumulative warming. This project aims to causally identify the warming effect of residential (re)development and investigate the impact of planning policies that control changes in the built form associated with increased heat exposure. Using large geospatial datasets and a quasi-experimental research design, warming in Australia’s suburbs over the past decade at the micro (street canyon)- and neighbourhood-scales, will be attributed to (re)development types and ‘fissures’ in policy to inform climate resilient planning. Read moreRead less
Tropical convection and its contribution to climate variability. This research will provide the necessary data to test and improve the representation of tropical convective clouds in weather forecast and climate simulation models. This will lead to more robust estimates of future climate change, and improved prediction of precipitation in the Australian tropics. This project will also provide training to undergraduate and postgraduate students in using modern computer models; such models will be ....Tropical convection and its contribution to climate variability. This research will provide the necessary data to test and improve the representation of tropical convective clouds in weather forecast and climate simulation models. This will lead to more robust estimates of future climate change, and improved prediction of precipitation in the Australian tropics. This project will also provide training to undergraduate and postgraduate students in using modern computer models; such models will be a key component of weather forecasting in the future.Read moreRead less
Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convect ....Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convection over tropical Australia and in its vicinity, the proposed research will improve our predictive tools and capabilities, thereby making a major contribution to decision-making in an environmentally sustainable Australia.Read moreRead less
A Stochastic Spatial Rainfall Model for Engineering Risk Assessment. Current Australian hydrologic design practice is moving towards use of continuous simulation to more accurately evaluate the performance of the water-related infrastructure for managing floods and droughts. A major impediment is the inability to simulate the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. This project aims to develop a stochastic rainfall model that will simulate long records of representative six-minute duration ....A Stochastic Spatial Rainfall Model for Engineering Risk Assessment. Current Australian hydrologic design practice is moving towards use of continuous simulation to more accurately evaluate the performance of the water-related infrastructure for managing floods and droughts. A major impediment is the inability to simulate the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. This project aims to develop a stochastic rainfall model that will simulate long records of representative six-minute duration rainfall throughout the target region. The proposal introduces a three-level hierarchical model of space-time rainfall building on experience of a point rainfall model developed in previous ARC research. Practical issues dealing with data quality and validation will also be addressed.Read moreRead less
Modelling long-term hydrological persistence using hidden state Markov models. Long-term climatic persistence has a pronounced effect on engineering risk assessment of drought and flood severity. Accurate risk assessment is essential for economic design of water resource and flood defence infrastructure. A new, physically realistic, framework for stochastic modelling of persistence is developed, in which the probability distributions of hydrological variables depend on underlying climatic states ....Modelling long-term hydrological persistence using hidden state Markov models. Long-term climatic persistence has a pronounced effect on engineering risk assessment of drought and flood severity. Accurate risk assessment is essential for economic design of water resource and flood defence infrastructure. A new, physically realistic, framework for stochastic modelling of persistence is developed, in which the probability distributions of hydrological variables depend on underlying climatic states. These states are not directly observable, and occasionally change in a random manner. The research program, involving three PhD projects, will develop: estimation techniques and software using climate indices and multi-site data; a new approach to flood risk regionalisation; and seasonal rainfall forecasting methods.Read moreRead less
A stochastic space-time model of rainfall fields in large heterogeneous regions. The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of its water resources, the productivity of its agricultural systems, and its aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as droughts and floods and given the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of such risks is an issue of national economic, social and envi ....A stochastic space-time model of rainfall fields in large heterogeneous regions. The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of its water resources, the productivity of its agricultural systems, and its aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as droughts and floods and given the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of such risks is an issue of national economic, social and environmental significance. Stochastic space-time rainfall models enable rainfall and climatic variability to be quantified, simulated over arbitrarily long periods, and risks assessed. This research will provide software and the development of rainfall modelling frameworks for large river basins such as the Murray-Darling.Read moreRead less
Understanding and modelling of interannual hydroclimatic variability in the context of historic streamflow. Recent persistently dry conditions in Australia have triggered water restrictions in major cities and re-emphasised the importance of water to this country. This project represents an integrated package of research that will enhance our understanding of interannual hydroclimatic variability, and its implications for land and water resources systems. The methodologies and model developed he ....Understanding and modelling of interannual hydroclimatic variability in the context of historic streamflow. Recent persistently dry conditions in Australia have triggered water restrictions in major cities and re-emphasised the importance of water to this country. This project represents an integrated package of research that will enhance our understanding of interannual hydroclimatic variability, and its implications for land and water resources systems. The methodologies and model developed here will directly lead to more informed decision making for sustainable use and management of Australia's increasingly scarce natural resources to cope with changing climate over a range of time scales. This is particularly important for Australia because of its higher interannual hydroclimate variability compared to elsewhere in the world.Read moreRead less
Remote forcing of Pacific Ocean variability and impacts on global climate. Variability in the Pacific Ocean has a profound impact on global climate. Recent unprecedented decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to global temperature trends and extremes, yet little is known about what drives this variability or its impact on regional climate. This project will combine observations, advanced coupled climate models and ocean-atmosphere dynamical theory to quantify remote drivers of Pacifi ....Remote forcing of Pacific Ocean variability and impacts on global climate. Variability in the Pacific Ocean has a profound impact on global climate. Recent unprecedented decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to global temperature trends and extremes, yet little is known about what drives this variability or its impact on regional climate. This project will combine observations, advanced coupled climate models and ocean-atmosphere dynamical theory to quantify remote drivers of Pacific Ocean variability on interannual-decadal time-scales. This project aims to enhance our understanding of the modes of variability operating in this region and their impact on global and Australian climate. This will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-decadal climate prediction.Read moreRead less
Abrupt Southern Hemisphere Climate Change: The Role Of The Southern Ocean Thermohaline Circulation. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next ten-fifty years. Research into climate change and climate variability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustai ....Abrupt Southern Hemisphere Climate Change: The Role Of The Southern Ocean Thermohaline Circulation. Australia's climate is extreme, with harsh droughts, severe bushfire seasons, climate change, soil loss, and salinity all posing potentially enormous socio-economic challenges over the next ten-fifty years. Research into climate change and climate variability is thus highly significant for Australia, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure the nation's environmental sustainability. We propose to launch a major new study of the stability of the Southern Ocean's thermohaline circulation and its role in global climate. This work could have significant long-term benefits for those sectors of society sensitive to shifts in climate; including agriculture, energy, freshwater supply, health, and tourism.Read moreRead less
Coupled ocean-carbon-atmosphere feedbacks in the global climate system. The capacity of the oceans to absorb and store carbon fundamentally regulates atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Climate change is altering the flux of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere, and may reduce the capacity of the oceans to store carbon. Research into climate change and the global ocean carbon cycle is of high national significance, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure Australia's env ....Coupled ocean-carbon-atmosphere feedbacks in the global climate system. The capacity of the oceans to absorb and store carbon fundamentally regulates atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Climate change is altering the flux of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere, and may reduce the capacity of the oceans to store carbon. Research into climate change and the global ocean carbon cycle is of high national significance, and will underpin efforts to protect our biodiversity and ensure Australia's environmental sustainability. We propose a major new study of the nature of coupled ocean-carbon-atmosphere feedbacks operating in the global climate system. This work will quantify how the ocean's carbon storage capacity might shift in the future, guiding policy-makers in setting future CO2 emissions targets.Read moreRead less