A Stochastic Spatial Rainfall Model for Engineering Risk Assessment. Current Australian hydrologic design practice is moving towards use of continuous simulation to more accurately evaluate the performance of the water-related infrastructure for managing floods and droughts. A major impediment is the inability to simulate the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. This project aims to develop a stochastic rainfall model that will simulate long records of representative six-minute duration ....A Stochastic Spatial Rainfall Model for Engineering Risk Assessment. Current Australian hydrologic design practice is moving towards use of continuous simulation to more accurately evaluate the performance of the water-related infrastructure for managing floods and droughts. A major impediment is the inability to simulate the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. This project aims to develop a stochastic rainfall model that will simulate long records of representative six-minute duration rainfall throughout the target region. The proposal introduces a three-level hierarchical model of space-time rainfall building on experience of a point rainfall model developed in previous ARC research. Practical issues dealing with data quality and validation will also be addressed.Read moreRead less
A stochastic space-time model of rainfall fields in large heterogeneous regions. The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of its water resources, the productivity of its agricultural systems, and its aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as droughts and floods and given the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of such risks is an issue of national economic, social and envi ....A stochastic space-time model of rainfall fields in large heterogeneous regions. The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of its water resources, the productivity of its agricultural systems, and its aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as droughts and floods and given the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of such risks is an issue of national economic, social and environmental significance. Stochastic space-time rainfall models enable rainfall and climatic variability to be quantified, simulated over arbitrarily long periods, and risks assessed. This research will provide software and the development of rainfall modelling frameworks for large river basins such as the Murray-Darling.Read moreRead less
Mathematical models for water management systems. The Australian community is currently talking about schemes to return water to the Murray-Darling river system to combat increased salinity and dramatically reduced river flow. Many believe that vastly improved water management policies are essential to maintain agricultural well-being in Australia. Salinity and water quality depend directly on flow rates and are also important in smaller catchments. In this study we will use statistical rainf ....Mathematical models for water management systems. The Australian community is currently talking about schemes to return water to the Murray-Darling river system to combat increased salinity and dramatically reduced river flow. Many believe that vastly improved water management policies are essential to maintain agricultural well-being in Australia. Salinity and water quality depend directly on flow rates and are also important in smaller catchments. In this study we will use statistical rainfall models and stochastic dynamic programming to find practical water management policies that minimise the risk to water supply. We will develop an interactive simulation and management tool using a modern computer graphics package.Read moreRead less
East Asian Monsoon response to periods of abrupt global change. This proposal aims to investigate the response of the East Asian Monsoon to abrupt climatic change, under baseline states of both warm and cool climate. The research is significant as it utilises unique, precisely dated sediments from Japan, and novel approaches to quantifying spatial and temporal climate patterns. The research will improve understanding of the nature and causes of decadal-scale changes in monsoon precipitation, wit ....East Asian Monsoon response to periods of abrupt global change. This proposal aims to investigate the response of the East Asian Monsoon to abrupt climatic change, under baseline states of both warm and cool climate. The research is significant as it utilises unique, precisely dated sediments from Japan, and novel approaches to quantifying spatial and temporal climate patterns. The research will improve understanding of the nature and causes of decadal-scale changes in monsoon precipitation, with relevance for constraining the trajectory of the future monsoon, and the risks of prolonged drought and flood. The findings will benefit the Asian people, for whom the monsoon has major economic, social and environmental importance. In turn, this will benefit Australia, via economic and climatic ties to Asia.Read moreRead less
A new flood design methodology for a variable and changing climate. The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of water resources, the productivity of agricultural systems, and aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as floods and the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of these risks is an issue of national economic and environmental significance. Monte Carlo simulation tech ....A new flood design methodology for a variable and changing climate. The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of water resources, the productivity of agricultural systems, and aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as floods and the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of these risks is an issue of national economic and environmental significance. Monte Carlo simulation techniques will quantify the risks associated with current and future climate change, and the combined risks that come from multiple sources, such as from coastal tides and storm runoff. This research will provide a new spatial framework for calculating risk as well as tools to evaluate flood risk.Read moreRead less
Environmental impacts of climate change in the Nile basin over the past 30,000 years. There is growing international and national concern over the possible environmental, economic and social impacts of global and regional climate change. This project brings together a multi-disciplinary team of internationally recognised research leaders and the resources they command to investigate the environmental impacts of climatic changes in the Nile basin over geologically recent times. The outcome will b ....Environmental impacts of climate change in the Nile basin over the past 30,000 years. There is growing international and national concern over the possible environmental, economic and social impacts of global and regional climate change. This project brings together a multi-disciplinary team of internationally recognised research leaders and the resources they command to investigate the environmental impacts of climatic changes in the Nile basin over geologically recent times. The outcome will be a more comprehensive understanding of how a major river system responds to global and regional climate change, and will provide an enhanced conceptual basis for anticipating how drainage systems such as the Murray-Darling could respond to future change.Read moreRead less
East Australian climate extremes through the Holocene. The project aims to document climate variability in eastern Australia over the Holocene, the last 11,500 years. It seeks to develop Australia’s two highest-resolution Holocene climate records using novel techniques to infer past rainfall, temperature and evaporation. The project will combine the expertise of international drought and climate specialists with novel techniques developed by the Australian investigators to derive an unparalleled ....East Australian climate extremes through the Holocene. The project aims to document climate variability in eastern Australia over the Holocene, the last 11,500 years. It seeks to develop Australia’s two highest-resolution Holocene climate records using novel techniques to infer past rainfall, temperature and evaporation. The project will combine the expertise of international drought and climate specialists with novel techniques developed by the Australian investigators to derive an unparalleled record of drought duration, frequency and intensity. In particular, the project aims to determine the frequency, duration and causes of mega-droughts in eastern Australia, of which little is known. Expected project outcomes include improved decision making capacity for natural resource management, and planning.Read moreRead less
Climate change and migration in China: theoretical, empirical and policy dimensions. This project will analyse the complex relationship between climate change and migration by focussing in depth on two areas in China anticipated being major hotspots of Climate change impact. It will provide insight into national and international policy development in Climate change mitigation and adaptations.
Climate model validation and generation of probabilistic climate projections using data from Phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. New climate model results will be compared with observations to test model skill. Probabilistic projections of regional-scale climate change will be developed and used to investigate a number of ecosystem impact case studies.
A 140,000 year insight into the imprint of climate and humans on Australia. Before the arrival of Europeans, two events shaped Australia's current landscapes and biota more than any others: climate change during the glacial cycle and the arrival of humans on the continent. However, the full scale of these events is not well understood. High resolution analyses of two continuous 140 000 year old sediment deposits will be used in this project to fill this void and answer fundamental questions abou ....A 140,000 year insight into the imprint of climate and humans on Australia. Before the arrival of Europeans, two events shaped Australia's current landscapes and biota more than any others: climate change during the glacial cycle and the arrival of humans on the continent. However, the full scale of these events is not well understood. High resolution analyses of two continuous 140 000 year old sediment deposits will be used in this project to fill this void and answer fundamental questions about how current Australian environments came to be.Read moreRead less