Meta-modelling of ecological, evolutionary and climatic systems dynamics. This project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. Using dynamic systems modelling, tested against field data from a wide variety of case studies, the project models will integrate a variety of biological and geophysical inputs to produce more realistic forecasts of change.
Systems modelling for synergistic ecological-climate dynamics. The project aims to improve forecasts of the response of biodiversity to future climate change and so improve on-ground conservation management. A systems modelling framework will be developed and tested against real-world data to integrate a wide variety of biological and geophysical inputs and so produce more realistic predictions.
Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imp ....Integrating models with molecular 'logbooks' to better forecast extinction risk from climate change. Current forecasts indicate that human-driven climate change will likely cause widespread biodiversity loss. However, climatic shifts during the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago to present), similar in magnitude to those projected for the 21st century, did not apparently cause extensive extinctions (with the exception of the megafauna). This project aims to use models linked to past responses imprinted in species’ genes to resolve whether the disparity between observed and predicted extinction rates comes from models over-predicting species loss due to climate change. It will use this genetic-demographic approach to improve predictions of biodiversity responses to global change by establishing the biological and environmental determinants of extinction.Read moreRead less
Using ancient DNA to understand Australia's past and manage its future. The aim of this program is to establish an ancient DNA research centre for Australia, and use long-term natural records to investigate the genetic responses of animals, plants, and micro-organisms to environmental change. By examining biological processes before, during, and after major changes (eg coral bleaching, salination) the evolution and selective pressures at important genetic loci will be identified, and related to ....Using ancient DNA to understand Australia's past and manage its future. The aim of this program is to establish an ancient DNA research centre for Australia, and use long-term natural records to investigate the genetic responses of animals, plants, and micro-organisms to environmental change. By examining biological processes before, during, and after major changes (eg coral bleaching, salination) the evolution and selective pressures at important genetic loci will be identified, and related to environmental change to enhance effected planning and future management of Australia's ecosystems, biodiversity and tourism. Key records will come from lake-beds, billabongs, coral reefs, rodent nests, megafaunal bones, and ancient human material.Read moreRead less
An integrated tool for informing pest management: modelling range shifts for an invasive vertebrate in response to climate change. Invasive species and climate contribute directly to loss of biodiversity and economic productivity. This research project focuses on providing user-orientated tools that enable a strategic approach to European rabbit management and vertebrate pest control in Australia in response to anticipated climate and land-use change.
Using ancient DNA to investigate the environmental impacts of climate change and humans through time. This project will provide important information about how climate change and human impact have effected our environment over the past 50,000 years, removing many of the large mammals and altering the landscape. It is critical that the background to our current environment is properly understood if we are to predict the effects of on-going changes such as global warming. The research will concent ....Using ancient DNA to investigate the environmental impacts of climate change and humans through time. This project will provide important information about how climate change and human impact have effected our environment over the past 50,000 years, removing many of the large mammals and altering the landscape. It is critical that the background to our current environment is properly understood if we are to predict the effects of on-going changes such as global warming. The research will concentrate on the effects of climate change on large mammals in North and South America, New Zealand, Australia and Africa over this time period, and will examine the additional impact of humans in each location.Read moreRead less
Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Why are particular species present in some locations, but not others? This is a simple, fundamental ecological question, yet surprisingly, our answers on this point remain far from complete. Using an integrated, systems-based approach, we will determine the interplay between: (i) birth, death and movement rates, (ii) species interactions, and (iii) the constraints of the physical environment (temperature, ra ....Range dynamics and demographics of spatially structured populations under global change. Why are particular species present in some locations, but not others? This is a simple, fundamental ecological question, yet surprisingly, our answers on this point remain far from complete. Using an integrated, systems-based approach, we will determine the interplay between: (i) birth, death and movement rates, (ii) species interactions, and (iii) the constraints of the physical environment (temperature, rainfall, soil type), which determine the limits of species' ranges. Our models will provide Australian conservation managers with a novel, validated toolbox to explore the trade-offs, and synergies, inherent in trying to adapt to climate change and other stressors on biodiversity.Read moreRead less
Planning for a transformed future: Modelling synergistic climate change and land use impacts on biodiversity. Climate change poses a dire threat to Australia's biodiversity and natural resources due to its all-encompassing reach and the speed at which human-driven changes are taking place in already heavily modified systems. The proposed research, on modelling the synergistic impacts of anthropogenic threats, will provide new knowledge and innovative solutions for protecting unique ecosystems fa ....Planning for a transformed future: Modelling synergistic climate change and land use impacts on biodiversity. Climate change poses a dire threat to Australia's biodiversity and natural resources due to its all-encompassing reach and the speed at which human-driven changes are taking place in already heavily modified systems. The proposed research, on modelling the synergistic impacts of anthropogenic threats, will provide new knowledge and innovative solutions for protecting unique ecosystems facing severe environmental challenges this century. The validation of these new methods, which aim to capture ecological responses to global change, will represent a major and timely addition to the national research capability on climate change adaptation, and add to Australia's reputation as a global leader in the field of ecology.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing mechanisms of range contraction to avert species extinctions. This project aims to integrate biotic information from fossils and ancient DNA of vertebrates into computational models to establish ecological processes that drive the structure and dynamics of geographical ranges and regulate the severity of species extinction rates from global change. This approach is likely to improve theory on dynamic species borders and expected outcomes include providing a framework for better al ....Reconstructing mechanisms of range contraction to avert species extinctions. This project aims to integrate biotic information from fossils and ancient DNA of vertebrates into computational models to establish ecological processes that drive the structure and dynamics of geographical ranges and regulate the severity of species extinction rates from global change. This approach is likely to improve theory on dynamic species borders and expected outcomes include providing a framework for better allocating resources for endangered species in Australia and beyond. This will have significant benefits, such as providing the first mechanistic explanations for the principal drivers of mega-fauna extinctions during the late Pleistocene and Holocene.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing past population dynamics to understand human and climatic impacts in prehistory. More than 100 species have become extinct since humans first colonised Australia, and over 1000 are considered threatened. This research will determine the factors most strongly governing the interaction between humans and native fauna in Australia over the last 46 millennia. Our approach is powerful and novel because it will effectively draw together multidisciplinary evidence on natural resource exp ....Reconstructing past population dynamics to understand human and climatic impacts in prehistory. More than 100 species have become extinct since humans first colonised Australia, and over 1000 are considered threatened. This research will determine the factors most strongly governing the interaction between humans and native fauna in Australia over the last 46 millennia. Our approach is powerful and novel because it will effectively draw together multidisciplinary evidence on natural resource exploitation and habitat alteration by ancient people, and the influence of dramatic climatic shifts on the Australian biota. Information on past biological responses to environmental change is critical to properly contextualising the current impact, and long-term consequences of, threats such as global warming, habitat loss and invasive species.Read moreRead less