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Financial Instability and Risk Management: New Statistical Treatment of the Occurrence and Persistence of Shocks in International Markets. Global economies are complex systems: their complexity is increasing due to market connectivity, borderless trading and rapid electronic transactions. This collaboration will improve understanding of market interdependence, important because of its profound macroeconomic influence on individual consumersf decisions and corporate investment. A novel combinati ....Financial Instability and Risk Management: New Statistical Treatment of the Occurrence and Persistence of Shocks in International Markets. Global economies are complex systems: their complexity is increasing due to market connectivity, borderless trading and rapid electronic transactions. This collaboration will improve understanding of market interdependence, important because of its profound macroeconomic influence on individual consumersf decisions and corporate investment. A novel combination of nonlinear time series and dynamical systems theories will be used to describe propagation and persistence of market shocks. Focusing on smart information use and innovation economies, this project will deliver publications on new practical econometric methodologies, training for early career researchers, and a strong sustainable research relationship between Australia and France.Read moreRead less
Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The primary objective of this project is to develop efficient algorithms for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated and exact maximum likelihood. The research will draw on both parametric and non-parametric analysis in novel ways to construct estimation procedures that are computationally feasible. These methods will then be applied in the area of finance and used to ....Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The primary objective of this project is to develop efficient algorithms for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated and exact maximum likelihood. The research will draw on both parametric and non-parametric analysis in novel ways to construct estimation procedures that are computationally feasible. These methods will then be applied in the area of finance and used to estimate the parameters of stochastic-volatility models, thus contributing to knowledge in a prominent area of complex systems, namely financial risk. The execution of this collaborative project will deliver quality research training in the topical area of mathematical finance and produce high-calibre postgraduates.
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The end of Westphalia? Re-envisioning Sovereignty. This initial project aims to undertake a systematic re-evaluation of state sovereignty. In doing so, we seek to reconceptualise the meaning of sovereignty, how that meaning has changed over time according to a variety of historical conditions, and the implications of this for traditional Westphalian conceptions during a time when state authority is increasingly challenged by an array of new actors. The broader project will then build on the new ....The end of Westphalia? Re-envisioning Sovereignty. This initial project aims to undertake a systematic re-evaluation of state sovereignty. In doing so, we seek to reconceptualise the meaning of sovereignty, how that meaning has changed over time according to a variety of historical conditions, and the implications of this for traditional Westphalian conceptions during a time when state authority is increasingly challenged by an array of new actors. The broader project will then build on the new possibilities for the evolution of sovereignty, first by suggesting necessary changes to existing legal and political institutions, and secondly by offering practical policy recommendations for states.Read moreRead less
Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as vo ....Modelling Hidden Processes which Drive Economic and Financial Systems. The ability to forecast complex economic systems is crucial to benefit from peak performance, and to prepare for and safeguard against downturn. This project aims to make significant discoveries concerning hidden processes which drive such systems, using rigorous, cutting-edge, flexible econometric methods. Resulting outcomes will be improved understanding of - and ability to forecast - important economic phenomena such as volatility in price series, extremal (risky) behaviour of financial systems, and turning points of the business cycle. Discoveries will be disseminated through published papers and presentations at a major international conference. Ongoing e-research links with France will also be established.Read moreRead less
Regional Economic Development and Performance: Roles of Leadership and Institutional Factors in Endogenous Growth. Contemporary regional economic development theory emphasises endogenous factors as key determinants of difference in regional economic performance. Leadership and institutional issues require special attention for analysis and in strategy formulation and implementation of regional development plans. This project develops model frameworks for analysing the impact of those endogenous ....Regional Economic Development and Performance: Roles of Leadership and Institutional Factors in Endogenous Growth. Contemporary regional economic development theory emphasises endogenous factors as key determinants of difference in regional economic performance. Leadership and institutional issues require special attention for analysis and in strategy formulation and implementation of regional development plans. This project develops model frameworks for analysing the impact of those endogenous factors on regional economic performance and develops methodologies for their incorporation into regional development strategy, using illustrative case studies. A major book on this topic will result. The collaboration is between researchers at the University of Queensland and George Mason University.Read moreRead less
Novel econometric techniques for modelling and forecasting electricity prices and price volatility in Australia. Price volatility, particularly price spikes, are of special importance to electricity retailers who, because of retail price regulation, cannot pass them onto final customers and end up bearing the price risk. While state governments may enter into compensation deals with retailers, it is of great interest to both parties to understand why and when these price surges occur and, once t ....Novel econometric techniques for modelling and forecasting electricity prices and price volatility in Australia. Price volatility, particularly price spikes, are of special importance to electricity retailers who, because of retail price regulation, cannot pass them onto final customers and end up bearing the price risk. While state governments may enter into compensation deals with retailers, it is of great interest to both parties to understand why and when these price surges occur and, once they have occurred, how long they will last. A better understanding of the electricity price process will enable more sophisticated plans and strategies to be put in place to hedge against unfavourable, unexpected or extreme price events.Read moreRead less