Numerical prediction of bushfire behaviour and bushfire weather. Bushfires are a threat to Australia’s population and infrastructure, but there are many aspects of fire behaviour that are poorly understood. This project will examine how bushfires interact with the atmosphere and how these interactions influence fire spread. This research will underpin the development of new systems for fire weather prediction.
Understanding the Origin and Development of Extreme and Mega Bushfires. Extreme and megafires result in significant damage to property and infrastructure and are associated with large suppression costs. These events form when separate fires Merge. Their increase occurrence in recent seasons highlights the importance of developing tools and technologies that better predict extreme events to aid fire response and inform strategies for greater resilience. This project combines fire field experiment ....Understanding the Origin and Development of Extreme and Mega Bushfires. Extreme and megafires result in significant damage to property and infrastructure and are associated with large suppression costs. These events form when separate fires Merge. Their increase occurrence in recent seasons highlights the importance of developing tools and technologies that better predict extreme events to aid fire response and inform strategies for greater resilience. This project combines fire field experiments with computer modelling to determine factors driving extreme fire development, and develop new knowledge and models. These enable better prediction of active fires, enhance the knowledge base of fire managers for critical decision making and to improve risk modelling and mitigation planning for fire-prone communities.Read moreRead less
Understanding the role of deep flaming in violent pyroconvective events. This project aims to improve the prediction of firestorms by combining state-of-the-art knowledge of dynamic bushfire behaviour with atmospheric models to provide a comprehensive understanding of how the heat and moisture released by a bushfire interacts with ambient atmospheric instability to produce extreme fire events. Firestorms represent the most extreme and catastrophic phase of development of a bushfire. They often c ....Understanding the role of deep flaming in violent pyroconvective events. This project aims to improve the prediction of firestorms by combining state-of-the-art knowledge of dynamic bushfire behaviour with atmospheric models to provide a comprehensive understanding of how the heat and moisture released by a bushfire interacts with ambient atmospheric instability to produce extreme fire events. Firestorms represent the most extreme and catastrophic phase of development of a bushfire. They often cause broad-scale loss of property, environmental damage and human fatalities. Firestorms cannot be suppressed, and so accurate and timely warnings of their occurrence, combined with appropriate community responses, are the only way of mitigating their effects. Better understanding of extreme fire processes may improve mitigation planning, community safety, environmental outcomes and emergency response measures.Read moreRead less
Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how like ....Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how likely they are to exceed key thresholds. It targets important scientific and practical issues such as the joint occurrence of gusts and high rainfall, role of gusts in contributing to dust and other airborne pollutants, impacts of gusts on subsequent storm activity, and gusts in a warming climate.Read moreRead less
Linkage Infrastructure, Equipment And Facilities - Grant ID: LE130100136
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$340,000.00
Summary
Mobile weather radar system for advanced environmental monitoring and modelling. High spatial and temporal resolution weather radar data on wind and precipitation will translate to significant environmental model advances. Australian researchers will undertake model validation studies on precipitation, dust storm, and flood prediction under a wider range of environmental conditions and in greater detail than currently possible.
Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observe ....Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observed and model-projected sea level rise in recent decades. This work will use a newly developed climate model hierarchy and innovative experimental design to determine the cause of this discrepancy and will produce more credible regional sea level rise projections by clarifying and reducing projection uncertainty.
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