Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in ....Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.Read moreRead less
The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Uncertainty. This project aims to estimate the first global uncertainty index to enable Australian policymakers to design policies to efficiently manage global uncertainty shocks and limit the recessionary effects of such shocks. Uncertainty is a crucial driver of household and business consumption and investment decisions and, therefore, countries' business cycles. A global uncertainty index would aim to identify the role of global uncertainty as a driver of ....The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Uncertainty. This project aims to estimate the first global uncertainty index to enable Australian policymakers to design policies to efficiently manage global uncertainty shocks and limit the recessionary effects of such shocks. Uncertainty is a crucial driver of household and business consumption and investment decisions and, therefore, countries' business cycles. A global uncertainty index would aim to identify the role of global uncertainty as a driver of Australia's business cycle fluctuations, to understand if this role has become more relevant in recent historical periods due to globalisation, and to understand if the effects of fluctuations in global uncertainty have been more severe in economic recessions. The intended outcome of the project is to provide policy-makers with key inputs to design policies able to limit the severity of recessions and lift Australia's growth.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100693
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$405,458.00
Summary
Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy. The project aims to measure and understand the drivers of the financial cycle. As unsustainable financial conditions, such as excess credit, tend to precede financial cycle busts, which often eventuate into recessions, the project aims to also shed light on the interaction between the financial cycle and macroeconomy. These aims are expected to be achieved through the application of a new set of econometric tools to estimate and interpret financial cycles. ....Financial Cycles and the Macroeconomy. The project aims to measure and understand the drivers of the financial cycle. As unsustainable financial conditions, such as excess credit, tend to precede financial cycle busts, which often eventuate into recessions, the project aims to also shed light on the interaction between the financial cycle and macroeconomy. These aims are expected to be achieved through the application of a new set of econometric tools to estimate and interpret financial cycles. The expected outcomes of this project include new insights for institutions such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and should provide significant benefit through the appropriate design of macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Uncertainty, financial frictions, and the Australian business cycle. This project aims to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of disruptions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty about the future. Key components of the project include new measures of uncertainty and development of new tools to estimate flexible empirical and structural models of uncertainty and financial frictions. The project expects to provide policymakers with tools to design effective policies to counteract ....Uncertainty, financial frictions, and the Australian business cycle. This project aims to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of disruptions in financial markets and heightened uncertainty about the future. Key components of the project include new measures of uncertainty and development of new tools to estimate flexible empirical and structural models of uncertainty and financial frictions. The project expects to provide policymakers with tools to design effective policies to counteract the effects of heightened uncertainty and financial disruptions. The results of this project are expected to put Australia at the frontier of the international scientific research on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty and financial frictions.Read moreRead less