Back to the Future: Interglacial Warming and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet . The Antarctic is highly-sensitive to abrupt changes caused by the passing of tipping points within the climate system. Crucially, the instrumental record is too short to resolve major uncertainties surrounding future warming. The Last Interglacial (125,000 yrs ago) was 2°C warmer than today and experienced 6-11 m higher global sea levels. The role of Antarctica is vital for constraining sea-level projections. This Austra ....Back to the Future: Interglacial Warming and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet . The Antarctic is highly-sensitive to abrupt changes caused by the passing of tipping points within the climate system. Crucially, the instrumental record is too short to resolve major uncertainties surrounding future warming. The Last Interglacial (125,000 yrs ago) was 2°C warmer than today and experienced 6-11 m higher global sea levels. The role of Antarctica is vital for constraining sea-level projections. This Australian-led international project aims to determine the mechanisms and impacts of past interglacial Antarctic warming up to 2°C (relative to pre-industrial). Innovative techniques integrating horizontal ice cores and high resolution marine records will help identify polar tipping points and better plan for impacts in Australia.Read moreRead less
The Antarctic Slope Current in a warming climate. Melting Antarctic ice sheets are responsible for 28% of global sea level rise in recent decades, and can contribute more than 1 metre of sea level rise by year 2100, and a staggering 15 metres by 2500. Increased glacial melt rates are best understood by studying changes in the circulation of water around the Antarctic coastline. The combination of physical processes that must be resolved in this region places a high demand on ocean observations a ....The Antarctic Slope Current in a warming climate. Melting Antarctic ice sheets are responsible for 28% of global sea level rise in recent decades, and can contribute more than 1 metre of sea level rise by year 2100, and a staggering 15 metres by 2500. Increased glacial melt rates are best understood by studying changes in the circulation of water around the Antarctic coastline. The combination of physical processes that must be resolved in this region places a high demand on ocean observations and modelling systems. This project uses a series of high-resolution ocean and ice experiments, cross-validated with observations, to provide a deeper understanding of how waters at the Antarctic margin respond to both anthropogenic and natural climate forcing.Read moreRead less
Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100086
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$357,203.00
Summary
Will an improved land surface model enhance seasonal prediction of drought? This project aims to increase the predictability of seasonal droughts that cause major socio-economic losses in rural Australia. The capacity to predict drought, and in particular its impacts on the land, is currently limited by the low skill of forecast models. Using novel observations, the project expects to quantify the vulnerability of Australian agricultural lands to seasonal droughts. The new knowledge will then be ....Will an improved land surface model enhance seasonal prediction of drought? This project aims to increase the predictability of seasonal droughts that cause major socio-economic losses in rural Australia. The capacity to predict drought, and in particular its impacts on the land, is currently limited by the low skill of forecast models. Using novel observations, the project expects to quantify the vulnerability of Australian agricultural lands to seasonal droughts. The new knowledge will then be used to modify land processes in the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal prediction system to better reflect Australian conditions. This project is expected to improve forecasts of high impact droughts, crucial to mitigate socio-economic risks, and should benefit decision-making in agriculture and other industries.Read moreRead less
Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observe ....Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observed and model-projected sea level rise in recent decades. This work will use a newly developed climate model hierarchy and innovative experimental design to determine the cause of this discrepancy and will produce more credible regional sea level rise projections by clarifying and reducing projection uncertainty.
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How do humans affect the nature and impacts of Australian heatwaves? This project aims to provide more accurate information on the human signal behind heatwaves and their impacts, by deriving a comprehensive approach of the detection and attribution of climate extremes. The project expects to generate robust estimates of the human signal behind high-impact events, and an innovative, versatile methodology that can be applied to any extreme event and its impacts. With the specific application to A ....How do humans affect the nature and impacts of Australian heatwaves? This project aims to provide more accurate information on the human signal behind heatwaves and their impacts, by deriving a comprehensive approach of the detection and attribution of climate extremes. The project expects to generate robust estimates of the human signal behind high-impact events, and an innovative, versatile methodology that can be applied to any extreme event and its impacts. With the specific application to Australian heatwave impacts on human health, key knowledge should support more targeted and accurate mitigation policies, minimising the strain on resources when future heatwaves occur. This should help in safeguarding future generations from deadly impacts of heatwaves.Read moreRead less
Resolving the role of dryland flooding in the global carbon cycle. Aquatic sources of carbon dioxide and methane are globally significant, but unknown for flooded drylands. The aim of this project is to use an innovative combination of well-integrated methodologies to determine if flooded drylands release large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. This project is significant because this release of carbon dioxide and methane has not previously been accounted for and may change the magnitude of ....Resolving the role of dryland flooding in the global carbon cycle. Aquatic sources of carbon dioxide and methane are globally significant, but unknown for flooded drylands. The aim of this project is to use an innovative combination of well-integrated methodologies to determine if flooded drylands release large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. This project is significant because this release of carbon dioxide and methane has not previously been accounted for and may change the magnitude of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide sink and account of some of the planet’s missing sources of methane. The outcomes of this project will make a significant contribution to our understanding of the global carbon cycle and earth climate system, and inform future management of these systems.
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Past climate and environmental impacts on Great Barrier Reef paleoecology. This project aims to investigate the interconnected processes that led to past reef growth and demise. The iconic Great Barrier Reef and reefs globally are under threat. Yet reefs appear to have undergone cycles of death and recovery, though the causes are poorly understood. This project will reconstruct past climate, rainfall, water quality, coral bleaching and reef ecology feedbacks across Great Barrier Reef death event ....Past climate and environmental impacts on Great Barrier Reef paleoecology. This project aims to investigate the interconnected processes that led to past reef growth and demise. The iconic Great Barrier Reef and reefs globally are under threat. Yet reefs appear to have undergone cycles of death and recovery, though the causes are poorly understood. This project will reconstruct past climate, rainfall, water quality, coral bleaching and reef ecology feedbacks across Great Barrier Reef death events to establish which environmental stressors and paleoclimate variations are most critical for reef health. The outcomes will better constrain long term coral reef dynamics and provide significant benefits to those who manage reefs globally, since the Great Barrier Reef covers the full range of reef environments.Read moreRead less
Special Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR200100008
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$20,000,000.00
Summary
The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science. The Centre will revolutionise predictions of the future of East Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Changes in the Antarctic will be profoundly costly to Australia, including sea-level and fisheries impacts; but the speed and scale of future change remains poorly understood. A new national-scale and interdisciplinary Centre is required to understand the complex interactions of the ocean, ice sheets, atmosphere and ecosystems that will gov ....The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science. The Centre will revolutionise predictions of the future of East Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Changes in the Antarctic will be profoundly costly to Australia, including sea-level and fisheries impacts; but the speed and scale of future change remains poorly understood. A new national-scale and interdisciplinary Centre is required to understand the complex interactions of the ocean, ice sheets, atmosphere and ecosystems that will govern Antarctica’s future. The Centre will combine new field data with innovative models to address Australia’s Antarctic science priorities, train graduate students, develop leaders, engage the public, and enable major economic benefit as Australia adapts to climate change in the coming years and beyond.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE220100279
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$453,000.00
Summary
Did ocean circulation changes build the Antarctic ice sheet? The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet, from its beginning 34 million years ago (Ma) until today, is critical to our understanding of future climate change. This project aims to improve climate and ocean model simulations of the early Oligocene (30 Ma) and middle Miocene (15 Ma), using higher resolution and more accurate paleogeography than has previously been done. Expected outcomes include improvements to paleoclimate reconstructio ....Did ocean circulation changes build the Antarctic ice sheet? The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet, from its beginning 34 million years ago (Ma) until today, is critical to our understanding of future climate change. This project aims to improve climate and ocean model simulations of the early Oligocene (30 Ma) and middle Miocene (15 Ma), using higher resolution and more accurate paleogeography than has previously been done. Expected outcomes include improvements to paleoclimate reconstructions, better constraints on future climate change, and a better understanding of the impact of ocean eddies on Antarctic climate. These outcomes should strengthen Australia’s long-term program of climate modelling, and enable more effective climate adaptation, mitigation and risk management.Read moreRead less