The great divergence, long-run growth and unified theories of economic growth. This project investigates why income has been close to subsistence levels for most of human history, and in particular, the factors that were responsible for take-off in Europe two centuries ago and then later in other countries. It is expected that both major and minor technological innovations have played a critical role in take-off.
Growth, IQ, diseases, and the great demographic transition. This project investigates firstly whether poor health and malnutrition among young children was a cause of severe cognitive impairment in the pre-industrialised West and in developing countries today, and secondly whether this has been a major factor behind the large disparities in income and growth over the 150 years since industrialisation.
Heterogeneity, Wage Inequality, Unemployment, and Economic Growth. This project would provide the first internally consistent theory of wage inequality, unemployment and economic growth - and the roles that government policy variables play in determining them. It would use and extend frontier developments in theory, and identify the settings of policy variables (unemployment insurance, tax structures, education policies) that maximise social welfare, given that governments must satisfy their bud ....Heterogeneity, Wage Inequality, Unemployment, and Economic Growth. This project would provide the first internally consistent theory of wage inequality, unemployment and economic growth - and the roles that government policy variables play in determining them. It would use and extend frontier developments in theory, and identify the settings of policy variables (unemployment insurance, tax structures, education policies) that maximise social welfare, given that governments must satisfy their budget constraints. It also aims to uncover the relationship between the innate abilities of workers and their education choices - and the consequences for macro economies and public policy.Read moreRead less
Inequality, Trade, and Technology. This project aims to improve our understanding of the causes of rising income inequality in the world economy and in Australia since the early 1980s. We focus on the increasing building costs and imports of machinery as significant contributors to the increasing inequality. We hypothesize 1) that the increasing costs of buildings have reduced the demand for workers that are complementary to non-residential building capital; thus, reducing real wages; and 2) tha ....Inequality, Trade, and Technology. This project aims to improve our understanding of the causes of rising income inequality in the world economy and in Australia since the early 1980s. We focus on the increasing building costs and imports of machinery as significant contributors to the increasing inequality. We hypothesize 1) that the increasing costs of buildings have reduced the demand for workers that are complementary to non-residential building capital; thus, reducing real wages; and 2) that the marked increase in imports of machinery since the 1960s has reduced the demand for unskilled labour and widened the employment and wage gap between skilled and unskilled labour. Both factors may have driven the increasing inequality in Australia.
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Inequality and economic growth. This project aims to identify forces driving inequality. Piketty’s influential book, Capital in the 21st Century, stimulated research on inequality to address the increased public concern about inequality and its side-effects such as reduced growth. Piketty proposes three laws that explain and predict inequality paths over time, but there is no empirical evidence or theoretical foundations for these laws. This project will examine Piketty’s laws and investigate fa ....Inequality and economic growth. This project aims to identify forces driving inequality. Piketty’s influential book, Capital in the 21st Century, stimulated research on inequality to address the increased public concern about inequality and its side-effects such as reduced growth. Piketty proposes three laws that explain and predict inequality paths over time, but there is no empirical evidence or theoretical foundations for these laws. This project will examine Piketty’s laws and investigate factors that shape inequality and its relation to growth. This knowledge should enable Australian governments to reduce inequality and benefit economic growth, thereby reducing disadvantage and building stronger, more resilient communities.Read moreRead less
Sustaining India's economic transformation: challenges, prospects and implications for Australia and the Pacific region. India's emergence from economic stagnation is beginning to have a profound impact on the world economy, including Australia. This project aims to investigate the sources of India's growth and the reforms needed to ensure that growth generates reductions in poverty and ensures equity and political stability.
Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It wil ....Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It will conduct quantitative experiments using simulations, to estimate optimal government policy design settings. This project expects to identify policies that promote productivity, growth and employment.Read moreRead less
Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in ....Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.Read moreRead less
The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Uncertainty. This project aims to estimate the first global uncertainty index to enable Australian policymakers to design policies to efficiently manage global uncertainty shocks and limit the recessionary effects of such shocks. Uncertainty is a crucial driver of household and business consumption and investment decisions and, therefore, countries' business cycles. A global uncertainty index would aim to identify the role of global uncertainty as a driver of ....The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Uncertainty. This project aims to estimate the first global uncertainty index to enable Australian policymakers to design policies to efficiently manage global uncertainty shocks and limit the recessionary effects of such shocks. Uncertainty is a crucial driver of household and business consumption and investment decisions and, therefore, countries' business cycles. A global uncertainty index would aim to identify the role of global uncertainty as a driver of Australia's business cycle fluctuations, to understand if this role has become more relevant in recent historical periods due to globalisation, and to understand if the effects of fluctuations in global uncertainty have been more severe in economic recessions. The intended outcome of the project is to provide policy-makers with key inputs to design policies able to limit the severity of recessions and lift Australia's growth.Read moreRead less
Banking System Competition and the Macro-economy. Australia has one of the most concentrated banking sectors in the world, generating concerns regarding its efficiency. This project aims to develop unified frameworks to understand and evaluate quantitatively how the structure of the banking industry affects the macro-economy and provide policy recommendations for establishing a healthy and efficient banking industry. This project expects to improve understanding of the welfare trade-off between ....Banking System Competition and the Macro-economy. Australia has one of the most concentrated banking sectors in the world, generating concerns regarding its efficiency. This project aims to develop unified frameworks to understand and evaluate quantitatively how the structure of the banking industry affects the macro-economy and provide policy recommendations for establishing a healthy and efficient banking industry. This project expects to improve understanding of the welfare trade-off between bank competition and economic well-being to enable policymakers to better determine the optimal concentration of banking sector in Australia. This will enhance the productivity and international competitiveness of Australia’s financial system and the broader economy.Read moreRead less