Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that ....Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that is that decisions made by, or on, the advice of teams have different characteristics than individual decisions and often preclude the use of methods designed to limit individuals' biases. By encoding the method into a computerised tool the project will assist public and private sector enterprises to improve group decision making.Read moreRead less
Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoret ....Learning and choosing in a complex world. How do people make choices in a complex world? Making good choices requires expertise, but people must often forego rewards in order to acquire this knowledge. This is the essence of an "explore-exploit dilemma": to maximise rewards across a long time frame, people must take the time to explore and learn now. Empirically, this project aims to unify much of the existing psychological literature and extend it to cover richer, more complex problems. Theoretically, the project aims to use tools from machine learning to compare human decision making to optimal planning models.Read moreRead less
A new approach to understanding decision making. Mathematical theories of decision-making have helped us understand many aspects of psychology (such as ageing, gambling, psychological disorders and consumer decisions). This project will extend these theories to a new level of finer-grained analysis, opening up new possibilities for understanding cognition and behaviour.
The independent and combined effects of front-of-pack food labelling systems and health claims on consumers' food-related beliefs and behaviours. Recent developments in food labelling policy are changing the nature of the food environment. This project aims to allow the Australian government to capitalise on its investments in food labelling and health claims policies by investigating the independent and combined effects of front-of-pack labelling systems and health claims on adults' and childre ....The independent and combined effects of front-of-pack food labelling systems and health claims on consumers' food-related beliefs and behaviours. Recent developments in food labelling policy are changing the nature of the food environment. This project aims to allow the Australian government to capitalise on its investments in food labelling and health claims policies by investigating the independent and combined effects of front-of-pack labelling systems and health claims on adults' and children's food-related beliefs and behaviours. Three different forms of front-of-pack labelling systems and three types of health claims will be tested in varying combinations to identify the effects on different consumer segments, especially those of lower socioeconomic status. This approach aims to show how different forms of nutrition information are processed and traded-off during decision making.Read moreRead less
Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demand ....Modelling human decision making in complex environments. The project aims to extend quantitative psychological models of simple choice tasks to decision-making with complex stimuli in complex environments. The new formal models are designed to provide a comprehensive account of behaviour, including the choices that are made, how long it takes to make them, and how choices and choice times vary within and between decision-makers. The models would explain how people adapt to changes in task demands when dealing with multiple stimuli or performing multiple tasks concurrently under time pressure. The project aims to provide the basic research that is needed to extend psychological models of choice to complex ‘real-world’ tasks, such air traffic control and maritime surveillance.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140101181
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$384,183.00
Summary
How Do Our Past Decisions Affect Our Present Decisions? – An Innovative Model. Decisions under time pressure made in the past have a tendency to affect our current decisions. This phenomenon is often termed ‘sequential effects’. Typically, sequential effects are explained by positing the existence of a psychological mechanism that is specifically aimed at resolving conflicting information. The aim of this project is to develop a computational model that produces sequential effects naturally. Inn ....How Do Our Past Decisions Affect Our Present Decisions? – An Innovative Model. Decisions under time pressure made in the past have a tendency to affect our current decisions. This phenomenon is often termed ‘sequential effects’. Typically, sequential effects are explained by positing the existence of a psychological mechanism that is specifically aimed at resolving conflicting information. The aim of this project is to develop a computational model that produces sequential effects naturally. Innovatively, this model would remove the need for an explicit conflict monitoring mechanism. This project is significant because it progresses our understanding of how humans deal with conflict. The expected outcome is a comprehensive, quantitative account of sequential effects in human decision making.Read moreRead less
Risky Futures: Toward a Computational Process Model of Risky Inter-Temporal Choice. A lot is known about people’s preferences. People like their rewards now. Most would prefer $10 today than $20 in one month. Risk is also unattractive; a certain $10 is more attractive than a 50 per cent chance of receiving $25. Surprisingly, much less is known about the interaction between delay and risk. That is, relatively little is known about whether people prefer $10 now, or a 50 per cent chance of $50 in ....Risky Futures: Toward a Computational Process Model of Risky Inter-Temporal Choice. A lot is known about people’s preferences. People like their rewards now. Most would prefer $10 today than $20 in one month. Risk is also unattractive; a certain $10 is more attractive than a 50 per cent chance of receiving $25. Surprisingly, much less is known about the interaction between delay and risk. That is, relatively little is known about whether people prefer $10 now, or a 50 per cent chance of $50 in one month. This project will use a combination of experiments and cognitive modelling to examine all three types of choice. The outcome will be a novel computational model that will elucidate the complex interaction between delay and risk, thereby answering an enduring question in the literature: are risk and delay psychologically equivalent?Read moreRead less
Decoding change of mind decisions and errors from brain activity in humans. This project intends to provide new insights into how the brain changes a decision to achieve better outcomes. Decision-making is rarely optimal, and in a dynamic world people must often change their initial decisions in order to avoid consequential errors. This project aims to investigate the neural mechanisms underlying such change-of-mind decisions and decision errors in humans. To this end, it plans to use novel deco ....Decoding change of mind decisions and errors from brain activity in humans. This project intends to provide new insights into how the brain changes a decision to achieve better outcomes. Decision-making is rarely optimal, and in a dynamic world people must often change their initial decisions in order to avoid consequential errors. This project aims to investigate the neural mechanisms underlying such change-of-mind decisions and decision errors in humans. To this end, it plans to use novel decoding techniques to predict the evolution of change-of-mind decisions from brain activity while decisions unfold. This approach would clarify how quality of information, effort, and reward are integrated at a neural level to bias people towards changing their decisions. The expected results would provide an improved understanding of the neural dynamics of errors and how the brain corrects decisions online to achieve better outcomes.Read moreRead less
Super Financial Security: Improving Flexibility, Trust and Communication. This project aims to address the significant worldwide challenge of how to safeguard financial wellbeing at older ages. In doing so it aims to investigate three important and interconnected influences on retirement preparation: flexible choice architecture, trust formation and effective communication. The project aims to use a combination of innovative modelling, experimental and field-based approaches. The principal expec ....Super Financial Security: Improving Flexibility, Trust and Communication. This project aims to address the significant worldwide challenge of how to safeguard financial wellbeing at older ages. In doing so it aims to investigate three important and interconnected influences on retirement preparation: flexible choice architecture, trust formation and effective communication. The project aims to use a combination of innovative modelling, experimental and field-based approaches. The principal expected outcomes are insights into the factors that guide superannuation choice, build trust with superannuation providers, and ensure clear and effective communication with members.Read moreRead less
I like you and I just can't help it: Explaining automatic affective responses. Our automatic affective responses are crucial in determining how we behave particularly in situations where there is little conscious deliberation. These automatic responses have been implicated in dysfunctional behaviours such as unhealthy food choices and racial bias. However very little research has investigated the psychological processes responsible for the formation of these automatic affective responses. The ai ....I like you and I just can't help it: Explaining automatic affective responses. Our automatic affective responses are crucial in determining how we behave particularly in situations where there is little conscious deliberation. These automatic responses have been implicated in dysfunctional behaviours such as unhealthy food choices and racial bias. However very little research has investigated the psychological processes responsible for the formation of these automatic affective responses. The aim of this project is to investigate the role of conditioning and cognitive processes in the formation and expression of automatic affective responses. This will allow for the development of novel interventions targeting automatic responses which contribute to dysfunctional behaviour. Read moreRead less