Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that ....Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that is that decisions made by, or on, the advice of teams have different characteristics than individual decisions and often preclude the use of methods designed to limit individuals' biases. By encoding the method into a computerised tool the project will assist public and private sector enterprises to improve group decision making.Read moreRead less
The Psychology of Misinformation—Towards A Theory-driven Understanding. The project aims to develop a psychological theory of misinformation effects. Misinformation influences people’s memory, reasoning and decision-making even after corrections – it thus poses a significant challenge for science and society. Through the combination of systematic experimentation with theory-driven computational modelling, the project will strive to concurrently consider individual-level cognition and the impact ....The Psychology of Misinformation—Towards A Theory-driven Understanding. The project aims to develop a psychological theory of misinformation effects. Misinformation influences people’s memory, reasoning and decision-making even after corrections – it thus poses a significant challenge for science and society. Through the combination of systematic experimentation with theory-driven computational modelling, the project will strive to concurrently consider individual-level cognition and the impact of sociocultural context. It is anticipated that this novel integrative approach will substantially expand our understanding of misinformation effects, and that this theoretical progress will result in the formulation of specific communication strategies to reduce the impact of misinformation on society.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100129
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$374,943.00
Summary
A model based approach to investigating short-term memory: exploiting response time distributions. Working memory is one of the most fundamental and well studied aspects of human cognition. The project plans to develop and test a computational modelling framework into which fundamental theories of short-term memory can be placed. This unique approach will offer a deeper understanding of the underlying components of working memory.
Developing a integrated memory-based model of evaluation and choice. People's judgements and choices are unstable. This project intends to examine one potential source of this instability: the memories that come to mind when people are evaluating choices. Many of the choices we make in our everyday lives are made on the basis of remembered information, and yet theories of evaluation and choice typically do not account for the role of memory, or provide only a cursory account of its role. In the ....Developing a integrated memory-based model of evaluation and choice. People's judgements and choices are unstable. This project intends to examine one potential source of this instability: the memories that come to mind when people are evaluating choices. Many of the choices we make in our everyday lives are made on the basis of remembered information, and yet theories of evaluation and choice typically do not account for the role of memory, or provide only a cursory account of its role. In the project, people will be presented with value information, and the project plans to examine how that information is retrieved from memory and then used to evaluate options and make decisions. Expected project outcomes would provide a coherent model that provides an integrated understanding of the role of memory in judgement and choice.Read moreRead less
Improving human reasoning with causal Bayes networks: a multimodal approach. This project aims to improve human causal and probabilistic reasoning about complex systems by taking a user-centric, multimodal, interactive approach. The project will explore new integrated visual and verbal ways of explaining a causal probabilistic model and its reasoning, to reduce known human reasoning difficulties, and investigate how to reduce cognitive load by prioritising the most useful user- and context-speci ....Improving human reasoning with causal Bayes networks: a multimodal approach. This project aims to improve human causal and probabilistic reasoning about complex systems by taking a user-centric, multimodal, interactive approach. The project will explore new integrated visual and verbal ways of explaining a causal probabilistic model and its reasoning, to reduce known human reasoning difficulties, and investigate how to reduce cognitive load by prioritising the most useful user- and context-specific information. Expected outcomes include novel AI methods that empower users to drive the reasoning process and strengthen trust in the system’s reasoning. Performance will be assessed in medical and legal domains, with significant potential benefits to end users from better, more transparent reasoning and decision making.Read moreRead less
The role of episodic memory in imagining and planning for the future. For future planning we draw on past experiences. In many cases, past experiences are used to imagine novel potential scenarios yet to be experienced. This project will examine in detail the role of memory in imagining possible futures and planning for those possibilities, drawing on our contemporary understanding of memory as captured in computational models of human memory. By controlling the information that people encode in ....The role of episodic memory in imagining and planning for the future. For future planning we draw on past experiences. In many cases, past experiences are used to imagine novel potential scenarios yet to be experienced. This project will examine in detail the role of memory in imagining possible futures and planning for those possibilities, drawing on our contemporary understanding of memory as captured in computational models of human memory. By controlling the information that people encode into memory, and thus determining the building blocks from which people build simulations of the future, this project will gain valuable data that will be used to develop a detailed and precise computational model of the role of memory mechanisms and representations in imagining and planning.Read moreRead less
Improving performance in high risk environments using guided distraction and iconic cues. This project tests a novel strategy to assist operators in high-risk automated environments, in order to maintain their performance in low workload situations. Using guided distraction, this project will be able to show improvements in attention to critical tasks and in overall system performance, thereby reducing the potential for error.
Improving the diagnosticity of eyewitness memory choices. Eyewitness identification error is common and costly. This project aims to improve the quality of information provided by eyewitnesses, and the ability of police officers and triers of fact (e.g., juries, judges) to evaluate this information. Laboratory investigations will determine how best to test memory and confidence to achieve this aim. A new class of cognitive models will provide a unified account of response accuracy, response time ....Improving the diagnosticity of eyewitness memory choices. Eyewitness identification error is common and costly. This project aims to improve the quality of information provided by eyewitnesses, and the ability of police officers and triers of fact (e.g., juries, judges) to evaluate this information. Laboratory investigations will determine how best to test memory and confidence to achieve this aim. A new class of cognitive models will provide a unified account of response accuracy, response time, and confidence, suitable for application to computerized testing scenarios. The models and testing methods validated in the laboratory will be refined for application in eyewitness memory settings, facilitating better evaluation of identification evidence, and potentially reducing wrongful convictions.Read moreRead less
Combating Misinformation – Designing a Toolkit to Address a Global Problem. Misinformation impairs people’s cognition – their memory, reasoning and judgements – even if credible corrections are issued; it therefore poses a significant threat to evidence-based practice and policy. This project aims to develop novel psychological interventions to reduce the impact of misinformation, based on an experimental research program designed to systematically assess the effects of various types of misinfor ....Combating Misinformation – Designing a Toolkit to Address a Global Problem. Misinformation impairs people’s cognition – their memory, reasoning and judgements – even if credible corrections are issued; it therefore poses a significant threat to evidence-based practice and policy. This project aims to develop novel psychological interventions to reduce the impact of misinformation, based on an experimental research program designed to systematically assess the effects of various types of misinformation on cognition and behaviour. The expected outcome is the development of new knowledge regarding misinformation processing and communication and its translation into a toolkit for practical application. This promises to improve individual and public decision making and foster a culture of accurate information exchange.Read moreRead less
Choice models for learning and memory. Life is filled with familiar choices that often require quick decisions about objects in the environment and the contents of memory. This project examines how we learn to make rapid and accurate choices and how we quickly asses the level of confidence we have in recognition decisions based on our memories.