Understanding mutation and genetic reassortment in viruses: new mathematical models of viral dynamics and evolution. This project aims to understand how evolutionary processes and ecological conditions combine to ignite and sustain viral epidemics. Using novel mathematical models and statistical methods we will study the manner in which viral genes mutate and are recombined, as well as the rates of these important forces.
Microbial natural history and molecular evolution. This project aims to develop mathematical and computational models of microbial evolution that capture dynamics at both within-host and between-host scales, combined with processes of mutation. Integration of these elements with computational statistical methods will produce a framework that will enable inference from genome sequencing data. The mathematical models will be applied to bacterial genomic data to investigate how natural selection ac ....Microbial natural history and molecular evolution. This project aims to develop mathematical and computational models of microbial evolution that capture dynamics at both within-host and between-host scales, combined with processes of mutation. Integration of these elements with computational statistical methods will produce a framework that will enable inference from genome sequencing data. The mathematical models will be applied to bacterial genomic data to investigate how natural selection acts on experimental and natural populations of microorganisms. The mathematical models and statistical approaches developed here are intended to be applicable to infectious disease of both humans and domesticated animals, and could influence public health policies.Read moreRead less
New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics. Epidemics, such as the 2007 equine 'flu outbreak and 2009 swine 'flu pandemic, highlight the need to make informed decisive responses. This project will develop new methods that incorporate two important aspects of disease dynamics---host structure and chance---into mathematical models, and determine their impact in terms of controlling infections.
Developing mathematical models of infection and transmission to link biology, epidemiology and public health policy. Infectious diseases constitute a significant burden on the health of the population. Understanding how best to control them requires a multi-faceted approach, combining data from biology, medicine and population health with mathematical and computational models of disease transmission. This project will investigate the "flu" and other diseases.
Optimising progress towards elimination of malaria. The project aims to advance mathematical knowledge by developing novel tools appropriate for modelling disease elimination. We will apply these new mathematical tools to the significant problem of malaria elimination in Vietnam. The expected outcomes are new tools for modelling disease elimination on a fine spatial resolution with heterogeneities in individual patient characteristics, calibrating models to household level data on disease transm ....Optimising progress towards elimination of malaria. The project aims to advance mathematical knowledge by developing novel tools appropriate for modelling disease elimination. We will apply these new mathematical tools to the significant problem of malaria elimination in Vietnam. The expected outcomes are new tools for modelling disease elimination on a fine spatial resolution with heterogeneities in individual patient characteristics, calibrating models to household level data on disease transmission and designing intervention strategies for maximum effect on disease transmission. The innovative combination of modelling, inference and optimisation ensures that the mathematical methods developed will be broadly applicable to modelling elimination strategies for other infectious diseases.
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Epidemics in large populations: long-term and near-critical behaviour. The project aims to prove qualitative and quantitative results concerning aspects of the long-term behaviour of near-critical epidemics, including the probability and duration of a large outbreak, and the total number of people infected. This project is a theoretical study of stochastic models of epidemics in large populations. The project will focus on emerging epidemics, where the average number of contacts, infection and r ....Epidemics in large populations: long-term and near-critical behaviour. The project aims to prove qualitative and quantitative results concerning aspects of the long-term behaviour of near-critical epidemics, including the probability and duration of a large outbreak, and the total number of people infected. This project is a theoretical study of stochastic models of epidemics in large populations. The project will focus on emerging epidemics, where the average number of contacts, infection and recovery rates are such that the basic reproduction number of the disease is near the critical value 1. The project will plan to both analyse particular epidemic models and develop new methodologies applicable in broader contexts. The mathematical predictions will be tested through simulations and comparison to real-world data. The significant outcome of the project should be the advancement in mathematical understanding of infectious disease spread, eventually leading to improved epidemic surveillance and control, and resulting in more effective protection of public health, improved quality of life, and obvious economic benefits.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE120101529
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Transmission dynamics modelling of zoonotic neglected tropical diseases. This project will develop mathematical models to simulate zoonotic disease transmission and control. Results will provide novel insight for policy makers into effective interventions for schistosomiasis, echinococcosis and clonorchiasis, as well as provide a methodological platform for adaptation to other zoonotic emerging and re-emerging diseases.
Australian Laureate Fellowships - Grant ID: FL100100183
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$2,168,370.00
Summary
Biological adaptation under natural and anthropogenic conditions. This project covers all four national priority areas. Nature abounds with conflicts between what is good for the individual or a larger entity (a population, a society, or a species). Researching them will explain why populations adapt or fail to adapt to novel conditions (e.g., climate change) and predict when interventions are beneficial. Similar rules govern the spread of invasive species. Even health problems, e.g., new virule ....Biological adaptation under natural and anthropogenic conditions. This project covers all four national priority areas. Nature abounds with conflicts between what is good for the individual or a larger entity (a population, a society, or a species). Researching them will explain why populations adapt or fail to adapt to novel conditions (e.g., climate change) and predict when interventions are beneficial. Similar rules govern the spread of invasive species. Even health problems, e.g., new virulent strains of human, animal or plant diseases, require such evolutionary thinking. Cutting-edge mathematical tools also prepare Australians for an era in the near future where genomic data are so cheap to acquire that training in complex mathematical and logical analysis becomes a factor limiting scientific progress.Read moreRead less