New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics. Epidemics, such as the 2007 equine 'flu outbreak and 2009 swine 'flu pandemic, highlight the need to make informed decisive responses. This project will develop new methods that incorporate two important aspects of disease dynamics---host structure and chance---into mathematical models, and determine their impact in terms of controlling infections.
Emergence of a virulent strain of West Nile virus causing fatal equine encephalitis in south-eastern Australia. In 2011 a large outbreak of encephalitis in horses occurred in south-eastern Australia that was caused by a new virus that is transmitted by mosquitoes and is related to West Nile virus, known to cause severe disease in humans and horses. This project will study this new virus and develop improved methods for diagnosis and control of this disease.