A theory for the vertical structure of tropical atmospheric circulations. The vertical structure of atmospheric circulations is a key determinant of rainfall patterns and climate, but model projections do not agree on how it will change in a warmer world. This project aims to discover the processes that control the vertical structure of tropical atmospheric circulations. It will combine theory development, analysis of observations, and targeted modelling to generate new knowledge of the mechanis ....A theory for the vertical structure of tropical atmospheric circulations. The vertical structure of atmospheric circulations is a key determinant of rainfall patterns and climate, but model projections do not agree on how it will change in a warmer world. This project aims to discover the processes that control the vertical structure of tropical atmospheric circulations. It will combine theory development, analysis of observations, and targeted modelling to generate new knowledge of the mechanisms affecting atmospheric circulations as the climate changes. This will allow for process-based identification of the most reliable climate models, facilitating increased confidence in future projections. More accurate tropical climate projections will benefit decision making for resource management in northern Australia.Read moreRead less
Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aim ....Ocean heat content change and its impact on sea level. This project aims to improve projections of possible sea level changes. Sea level rise is among the most significant potential impacts of transient climate change around the world. Poor understanding of the way in which heat is absorbed at the sea surface and distributed by ocean circulation is a leading source of uncertainty in projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise by the end of this century. This project aims to apply novel observational methods, complimented by numerical modelling, to quantify the drivers of recent change. This project expects to transform our ability to predict how ocean temperature and sea level will change in the future.Read moreRead less
ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century. ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century. This Centre aims to determine how Australia’s weather is being reshaped by climate change. Through a fusion of innovative analyses of observations and fundamental science advances, alongside the development of ultra-high resolution climate models, the Centre looks to address climate science’s grand challenge in anticipating the likely weather patterns of a warmer world. The ....ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century. ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century. This Centre aims to determine how Australia’s weather is being reshaped by climate change. Through a fusion of innovative analyses of observations and fundamental science advances, alongside the development of ultra-high resolution climate models, the Centre looks to address climate science’s grand challenge in anticipating the likely weather patterns of a warmer world. The Centre strives to transform climate research by focussing on what matters most to making critical adaptation and mitigation decisions – weather change. The Centre aspires to provide Australia with the knowledge, technology, and human capital for robust evidence-based decision-making in response to future weather changes in our region and to harness weather as a resource.Read moreRead less
Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observe ....Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observed and model-projected sea level rise in recent decades. This work will use a newly developed climate model hierarchy and innovative experimental design to determine the cause of this discrepancy and will produce more credible regional sea level rise projections by clarifying and reducing projection uncertainty.
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Spanning ten billion scales from millimetre turbulence to global circulation. This project aims to explain the role of convection in the ocean. Convection is a key climate process yet it remains one of the most poorly understood mechanisms in the ocean and is crudely represented in climate models, leading to uncertainties in predictions of heat transport, climate change, polar ice loss and sea level rise. Using a unique turbulence-resolving approach and high-performance computing, the project wi ....Spanning ten billion scales from millimetre turbulence to global circulation. This project aims to explain the role of convection in the ocean. Convection is a key climate process yet it remains one of the most poorly understood mechanisms in the ocean and is crudely represented in climate models, leading to uncertainties in predictions of heat transport, climate change, polar ice loss and sea level rise. Using a unique turbulence-resolving approach and high-performance computing, the project will determine both the global role of buoyancy-driven convection in the broad ocean circulation and the local turbulence controls on melting rates of Antarctic ice-shelves. This will contribute to the formulation of better climate models and keep Australia at the forefront of oceanography and environmental fluid dynamics.Read moreRead less