Has rainfall become more variable or extreme? The trends and variability of global daily rainfall are uncertain. By tackling data shortcomings and the scaling issues that exist between observations and models, this project aims to produce the first well-constrained long-term assessment of the variability and trends in daily rainfall over land. Using extreme value analysis on the resulting data would allow the exploration of the sensitivity of rainfall extremes to grid resolution, interpolation m ....Has rainfall become more variable or extreme? The trends and variability of global daily rainfall are uncertain. By tackling data shortcomings and the scaling issues that exist between observations and models, this project aims to produce the first well-constrained long-term assessment of the variability and trends in daily rainfall over land. Using extreme value analysis on the resulting data would allow the exploration of the sensitivity of rainfall extremes to grid resolution, interpolation method and order of operation on an unprecedented grand scale. Ultimately, this means that improved return period estimates could be calculated for the types of events that could lead to flooding. Understanding how, where and why it rains is vital for enabling sound decisions to be made by our planners and policy-makers.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE200100086
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$357,203.00
Summary
Will an improved land surface model enhance seasonal prediction of drought? This project aims to increase the predictability of seasonal droughts that cause major socio-economic losses in rural Australia. The capacity to predict drought, and in particular its impacts on the land, is currently limited by the low skill of forecast models. Using novel observations, the project expects to quantify the vulnerability of Australian agricultural lands to seasonal droughts. The new knowledge will then be ....Will an improved land surface model enhance seasonal prediction of drought? This project aims to increase the predictability of seasonal droughts that cause major socio-economic losses in rural Australia. The capacity to predict drought, and in particular its impacts on the land, is currently limited by the low skill of forecast models. Using novel observations, the project expects to quantify the vulnerability of Australian agricultural lands to seasonal droughts. The new knowledge will then be used to modify land processes in the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal prediction system to better reflect Australian conditions. This project is expected to improve forecasts of high impact droughts, crucial to mitigate socio-economic risks, and should benefit decision-making in agriculture and other industries.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE170100367
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$342,924.00
Summary
Decadal climate variability: Mechanisms, interactions and effects. This project aims to study the processes underlying decadal climate variability, through increasingly complex models, underpinned by observations. Climate variations on time scales of years, decades and longer affect Australia, with potentially devastating effects on agriculture, water supply, bushfires and health. Improved climate prediction on decadal time scales is urgently needed, but limited understanding of the system’s nat ....Decadal climate variability: Mechanisms, interactions and effects. This project aims to study the processes underlying decadal climate variability, through increasingly complex models, underpinned by observations. Climate variations on time scales of years, decades and longer affect Australia, with potentially devastating effects on agriculture, water supply, bushfires and health. Improved climate prediction on decadal time scales is urgently needed, but limited understanding of the system’s natural variability hampers progress. This knowledge will reduce uncertainty in near term climate projections, allowing more informed decision making about adaptation on the regional scale, particularly for sectors such as agriculture, health, water and ecosystem management (including bushfire control).Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE140100952
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$394,299.00
Summary
A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future. The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Usin ....A comprehensive understanding of Australian heat waves: past, present and future. The frequency and duration of Australian heat waves is increasing. Existing theories include natural and human influences, however the relative roles of specific heat wave drivers are undefined. Using an ensemble of contemporary climate models, this project will determine the individual and combined roles of anthropogenic activities, natural forcings and internal variability that shape heat wave manifestation. Using the ability of models to simulate the appropriate mechanistic connections, plausible future projections of heat waves will be ascertained. This will be the first comprehensive analysis of changes in heat waves, providing essential resources for the adaptation, mitigation and preparedness towards future events.Read moreRead less
Cyclones, storm tracks and precipitation over the globe, and their sensitivity to climate change. The project will explore in detail the intimate connection across the globe between storms, storm tracks and precipitation and the changes in these key aspects of weather and climate. Expected outcomes are an improved understanding of trends and outlooks for southern Australian and European weather and precipitation.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE160100092
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$389,742.00
Summary
What is extreme? Advancing insights into Australia’s variable rainfall. This project aims to address fundamental questions about the causes of Australia’s rainfall variability, providing crucial information about how changing climates affect the water cycle. Bringing together earth system data from ground-based and satellite observations, palaeoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations, it plans to analyse the processes that cause change in Australia’s rainfall. The project aims to i ....What is extreme? Advancing insights into Australia’s variable rainfall. This project aims to address fundamental questions about the causes of Australia’s rainfall variability, providing crucial information about how changing climates affect the water cycle. Bringing together earth system data from ground-based and satellite observations, palaeoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations, it plans to analyse the processes that cause change in Australia’s rainfall. The project aims to integrate these datasets using the novel analysis of water isotopes, an important diagnostic of the water cycle. This approach is expected to help evaluate how Australia’s rainfall responds to natural and anthropogenic drivers and identify the processes behind recently observed rainfall extremes.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100456
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$367,536.00
Summary
How far in advance can we predict extreme temperature and rainfall events? The occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation events undergoes substantial seasonal to decadal variability, but little is known about their predictability. This project aims to examine variability and predictability of these climatic extremes and associated mechanisms. It will be the first to systematically investigate sources of predictability by incorporating the most comprehensive novel databases of both mult ....How far in advance can we predict extreme temperature and rainfall events? The occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation events undergoes substantial seasonal to decadal variability, but little is known about their predictability. This project aims to examine variability and predictability of these climatic extremes and associated mechanisms. It will be the first to systematically investigate sources of predictability by incorporating the most comprehensive novel databases of both multi-model decadal climate simulations and observed climate extremes. This study is significant as it will lead to a vastly improved understanding of variability and predictability of climate extremes. This will enable improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal timescales and ultimately improve longer-term projections.Read moreRead less
Transforming our research capacity in the analysis of climate extremes. Given their devastating impacts, there is now a critical urgency to understand what drives extreme climate events and make timely predictions of their future risk. The analysis of comprehensive extremes datasets, comprising global observations and output of multi-model simulations, will greatly improve our ability to answer fundamental questions about the nature and variability of extreme climatic events. This project also e ....Transforming our research capacity in the analysis of climate extremes. Given their devastating impacts, there is now a critical urgency to understand what drives extreme climate events and make timely predictions of their future risk. The analysis of comprehensive extremes datasets, comprising global observations and output of multi-model simulations, will greatly improve our ability to answer fundamental questions about the nature and variability of extreme climatic events. This project also ensures the government's continued commitment to managing the risks associated with extreme events as an urgent national priority. It represents a landmark opportunity for Australian leadership of an international collaboration between some of the world's leading climate scientists and climate data and modelling centres.Read moreRead less
How topography brakes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This project aims to observe and simulate the mechanisms that slow the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Southern Ocean winds have increased over the last two decades while the transport of the world’s largest current remains steady or slightly decreasing. A possible explanation is negative feedback mechanisms between the winds and transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This project will observe how eddies carry momentum from the ....How topography brakes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This project aims to observe and simulate the mechanisms that slow the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Southern Ocean winds have increased over the last two decades while the transport of the world’s largest current remains steady or slightly decreasing. A possible explanation is negative feedback mechanisms between the winds and transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This project will observe how eddies carry momentum from the wind down to the sea floor and accelerate the deep currents that drag against the rough bottom to put the brakes on this current. Since this current affects Australian rainfall patterns and agricultural output, findings could inform public policy.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE120102927
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Ingredients of the eddy soup in Southern Ocean dynamics: processes, climate impacts and parameterisation. This project aims to understand jet-topography-eddy interactions in the Southern Ocean, and to apply that understanding to improving the representation of ocean physics in models. It will provide the underpinning science needed to increase confidence in climate predictions that will allow Australia to more effectively respond to climate change.