Predicting Organized Tropical Convection. The project will yield understanding of practical value to forecasters, not only in Australia, but also elsewhere in the tropics. Forecasting the occurrence and behaviour of the deep convective lines, which are important rain-producing systems, is a very significant problem for the northern Australia.
Quality controlling GPS estimated atmospheric water vapour via stochastic modelling. Signals from satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS) can be used to estimate the quantity of atmospheric water vapour. Such information is vital to meteorologists for numerical weather prediction, since lack of atmospheric water vapour knowledge is a significant source of error in short term (0-24 hours) forecasts of precipitation. However, to be of practical use in numerical weather models, the estima ....Quality controlling GPS estimated atmospheric water vapour via stochastic modelling. Signals from satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS) can be used to estimate the quantity of atmospheric water vapour. Such information is vital to meteorologists for numerical weather prediction, since lack of atmospheric water vapour knowledge is a significant source of error in short term (0-24 hours) forecasts of precipitation. However, to be of practical use in numerical weather models, the estimate of the water vapour content must be accompanied by a realistic, reliable quality indicator. Such quality indicators are not currently attainable using existing GPS data processing methods, with this project aiming to overcome such deficiencies.Read moreRead less
Tropical convection and its contribution to climate variability. This research will provide the necessary data to test and improve the representation of tropical convective clouds in weather forecast and climate simulation models. This will lead to more robust estimates of future climate change, and improved prediction of precipitation in the Australian tropics. This project will also provide training to undergraduate and postgraduate students in using modern computer models; such models will be ....Tropical convection and its contribution to climate variability. This research will provide the necessary data to test and improve the representation of tropical convective clouds in weather forecast and climate simulation models. This will lead to more robust estimates of future climate change, and improved prediction of precipitation in the Australian tropics. This project will also provide training to undergraduate and postgraduate students in using modern computer models; such models will be a key component of weather forecasting in the future.Read moreRead less
Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convect ....Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Northern Australia. Australia's proximity to the tropics results in major influences, both direct and indirect, of tropical weather and climate on society as a whole. Tropical convection is key to all those influences. The prediction of the many natural hazards related to convection as well as a projection of the influence and strength of these hazards under climate change is a matter of high national priority. Through an improved understanding of convection over tropical Australia and in its vicinity, the proposed research will improve our predictive tools and capabilities, thereby making a major contribution to decision-making in an environmentally sustainable Australia.Read moreRead less
Precipitation Events over Tasmania and their Response to Weather Modification. The ongoing cloud-seeding work undertaken by Hydro Tasmania will be investigated through a combination of fieldwork and numerical simulations. New instrumentation and advanced numerical models will allow this research to provide a new understanding of the precipitation events over Tasmania and their response to cloud seeding. This research will also explore the interaction between the background aerosol/pollution leve ....Precipitation Events over Tasmania and their Response to Weather Modification. The ongoing cloud-seeding work undertaken by Hydro Tasmania will be investigated through a combination of fieldwork and numerical simulations. New instrumentation and advanced numerical models will allow this research to provide a new understanding of the precipitation events over Tasmania and their response to cloud seeding. This research will also explore the interaction between the background aerosol/pollution level and the precipitation. Given the relatively pure nature of the air over Tasmania, this research will be of international interest. This research will also be of direct interest to Hydro Tasmania as insight gained into the precipitation events will allow us to optimise their cloud-seeding operation.Read moreRead less
Radar Studies of Rainfall with Applications to Forecasting. Weather watch radars are used to predict severe weather events, with echo strengths depending on the number of rain drops in the beam. With suitable calibration the echo intensities can be used to predict rainfall rates. In 2005 the Bureau of Meteorology will establish a new weather radar near Adelaide. We will compare rainfall estimates made with the new radar with results from a VHF profiler that accurately measures rain drop distribu ....Radar Studies of Rainfall with Applications to Forecasting. Weather watch radars are used to predict severe weather events, with echo strengths depending on the number of rain drops in the beam. With suitable calibration the echo intensities can be used to predict rainfall rates. In 2005 the Bureau of Meteorology will establish a new weather radar near Adelaide. We will compare rainfall estimates made with the new radar with results from a VHF profiler that accurately measures rain drop distributions and rainfall. The aim is to test the weather radar estimates of rainfall rates and their uncertainties. Outcomes will have applications in flood forecasting and hydrology.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE230100435
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$428,568.00
Summary
Measuring and predicting sea spray spume droplets in the field. Sea spray spume droplets modulate heat and moisture fluxes between the ocean and atmosphere. These fluxes are a major source of uncertainty in extreme weather forecasting models due to a lack of reliable field measurement techniques. This project aims to develop a novel measurement technique to measure sea spray and generate new knowledge on the magnitude and nature of sea spray spume production. Expected outcomes include novel tool ....Measuring and predicting sea spray spume droplets in the field. Sea spray spume droplets modulate heat and moisture fluxes between the ocean and atmosphere. These fluxes are a major source of uncertainty in extreme weather forecasting models due to a lack of reliable field measurement techniques. This project aims to develop a novel measurement technique to measure sea spray and generate new knowledge on the magnitude and nature of sea spray spume production. Expected outcomes include novel tools, a baseline dataset of sea spray field observations and predictive capabilities. Providing critical information to forecast extreme weather and tropical cyclones, this research will improve accuracy of coastal weather hazard prediction providing many social and economic benefits for Australia and other nations.Read moreRead less
Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change ....Storm activity in the Arctic and implications for rapid climate change in polar regions. Australia's weather and climate is influenced in a myriad of ways by Antarctica and its environs. The complex manners in which weather systems interact with polar processes are fundamental in understanding these links. The dramatic changes which the Arctic has undergone in recent years present a very valuable environmental framework for understanding how the complex polar weather - climate connections change during a period of rapid change. This is of great national and community benefit in that it will lead to a fuller understanding of the polar regions, and present a broader context in which precipitation and other changes over southern Australia can be understood.Read moreRead less
Extratropical cyclone trends in current and future climate and associations with southern Australia rainfall. A sophisticated cyclone locating and tracking scheme will be applied to the NCEP-2 global atmospheric reanalysis (1979-2003) to derive new and comprehensive compilations of Southern Hemisphere synoptic activity at all tropospheric levels up to 300 hPa. Trends in cyclone behaviour will be identified and related to changes in precipitation over southern Australia. The approach will be exte ....Extratropical cyclone trends in current and future climate and associations with southern Australia rainfall. A sophisticated cyclone locating and tracking scheme will be applied to the NCEP-2 global atmospheric reanalysis (1979-2003) to derive new and comprehensive compilations of Southern Hemisphere synoptic activity at all tropospheric levels up to 300 hPa. Trends in cyclone behaviour will be identified and related to changes in precipitation over southern Australia. The approach will be extended to results from a simulation of future climate under enhanced greenhouse conditions. The extent to which extreme cyclone and precipitation events become more numerous in a warmer world will be determined and the links between them established.Read moreRead less
Global objective identification and tracking of atmospheric fronts and the role of fronts in climate change. Fronts, particularly those in the Indian and Southern Oceans, have a very strong impact on day-to-day weather over a vast proportion of Australia. Frontal systems are associated with a broad range of weather and climate parameters which affect people directly. These include precipitation, temperature, wind and a variety of extremes. The quality global climatology of fronts to be compiled ....Global objective identification and tracking of atmospheric fronts and the role of fronts in climate change. Fronts, particularly those in the Indian and Southern Oceans, have a very strong impact on day-to-day weather over a vast proportion of Australia. Frontal systems are associated with a broad range of weather and climate parameters which affect people directly. These include precipitation, temperature, wind and a variety of extremes. The quality global climatology of fronts to be compiled in this project will allow reliable assessments of how frontal systems have changed, and may be expected to change in the next century. Great community benefit will derive from understanding how these are linked with changes in Australian weather and climate extremes, and to decreases in rainfall over southern Australia in recent decades.Read moreRead less