Landscape-scale population dynamics of open forests in the Australian monsoon tropics. Over the last century there has been a trend of increasing tree cover in many landscapes. Yet the causes of this globally important ecological phenomenon are poorly understood, but may include the effects of climate, fire, grazing and CO2. We will determine how an area of forest has changed over 50 years in Kakadu National Park, linking forest demography with remote sensing techniques, re-measurement and analy ....Landscape-scale population dynamics of open forests in the Australian monsoon tropics. Over the last century there has been a trend of increasing tree cover in many landscapes. Yet the causes of this globally important ecological phenomenon are poorly understood, but may include the effects of climate, fire, grazing and CO2. We will determine how an area of forest has changed over 50 years in Kakadu National Park, linking forest demography with remote sensing techniques, re-measurement and analysis of long-term tree demography datasets, and simulation models of tree population dynamics on a landscape scale. This will provide a scientific framework to develop sustainable land management and the conservation of Australia's forest biodiversity.Read moreRead less
Aboriginal patch burning and the quest for sustainable fire management. This project aims to document historical changes in the spatial grain of the patch burning mosaic in an Arnhem Land savannah with an unbroken history of management by Aboriginal people, and in adjacent areas where traditional management has ceased. The mosaic's spatial grain will be inferred by mapping the individual ages of the long-lived conifer Callitris intratropica. Prior research has shown that Callitris individuals c ....Aboriginal patch burning and the quest for sustainable fire management. This project aims to document historical changes in the spatial grain of the patch burning mosaic in an Arnhem Land savannah with an unbroken history of management by Aboriginal people, and in adjacent areas where traditional management has ceased. The mosaic's spatial grain will be inferred by mapping the individual ages of the long-lived conifer Callitris intratropica. Prior research has shown that Callitris individuals can be reliably aged, and population structures are very sensitive to fire regimes: saplings only establish if unburnt for 10 years. This research is expected to provide the first direct test of the hypothesis that Aboriginal people maintained fine-grained fire mosaics in savannas, and inform bushfire policy debates.Read moreRead less
Water-use efficiency of Australian tropical trees: mechanistic analysis at multiple scales. The proposed research will provide valuable information about the physiological functioning of trees in northern Australia. Experiments will elucidate mechanisms that can result in variation in water-use efficiency among different tree species. Such a mechanistic understanding will have multiple benefits: (1) results will be able to be incorporated into process-based models of carbon and water cycling ....Water-use efficiency of Australian tropical trees: mechanistic analysis at multiple scales. The proposed research will provide valuable information about the physiological functioning of trees in northern Australia. Experiments will elucidate mechanisms that can result in variation in water-use efficiency among different tree species. Such a mechanistic understanding will have multiple benefits: (1) results will be able to be incorporated into process-based models of carbon and water cycling in the north-Australian landscape; (2) they will provide valuable information for land managers interested in optimizing both plant biomass production and water resource management; and (3) they will provide a critical test of proxy methods for identifying high water-use efficiency in taxonomically diverse tree species.Read moreRead less
Plant-herbivore interactions: a model two-species system from northern Australia. The proposed research addresses a critical aspect of magpie goose ecology. Understanding the interaction between the birds and the bulbs is critical to respond effectively to past and threatened losses of important sedge habitats to sea level rise. This knowledge will inform management of the Kakadu World Heritage Site and an iconic waterfowl of great cultural and economic significance. In addition to their importa ....Plant-herbivore interactions: a model two-species system from northern Australia. The proposed research addresses a critical aspect of magpie goose ecology. Understanding the interaction between the birds and the bulbs is critical to respond effectively to past and threatened losses of important sedge habitats to sea level rise. This knowledge will inform management of the Kakadu World Heritage Site and an iconic waterfowl of great cultural and economic significance. In addition to their importance as a Gondwanan relic and sole member of the Family Anseranatidae, the species is an important food-source for Aboriginal people, and tourists travel to the Kakadu wetlands to witness huge dry season congregations.Read moreRead less
Minimum sizes and habitat areas for viable populations. This project will address two critical issues in conservation biology: How large do wildlife populations need to be to ensure long-term persistence? How large an area needs to be preserved? At present, no such estimates exist for most species. I will develop realistic population viability analysis (PVA) models (encompassing all threats to persistence) on many bird, mammal, reptile, amphibian, invertebrate and plant species, and estimate the ....Minimum sizes and habitat areas for viable populations. This project will address two critical issues in conservation biology: How large do wildlife populations need to be to ensure long-term persistence? How large an area needs to be preserved? At present, no such estimates exist for most species. I will develop realistic population viability analysis (PVA) models (encompassing all threats to persistence) on many bird, mammal, reptile, amphibian, invertebrate and plant species, and estimate the minimum population sizes and habitat areas required for long-term survival. My prior research has validated the predictive accuracy of PVA. This research will deliver practical guidelines for managing threatened species.Read moreRead less
Modelling Payments for Environmental Services on Indigenous held lands. Payments for environmental services (PES) such as fire management have potential to provide employment to indigenous people managing land that has previously been thought to hold no commercial value. In so doing it could transform the economies of the very remote parts of Australia where indigenous people live. For these schemes to work, however, greater understanding is required not only of the willingness of society to pay ....Modelling Payments for Environmental Services on Indigenous held lands. Payments for environmental services (PES) such as fire management have potential to provide employment to indigenous people managing land that has previously been thought to hold no commercial value. In so doing it could transform the economies of the very remote parts of Australia where indigenous people live. For these schemes to work, however, greater understanding is required not only of the willingness of society to pay for environmental services in northern Australia but also of the perceptions of the indigenous people who are providing these services. Choice modelling can (1) quantify values of different environmental services in different sectors of society and (2) help allocate the payments for environmental services efficiently.Read moreRead less
Density regulation as a major determinant of population persistence: advancing empirical and theoretical approaches to conserve biodiversity. Without efficient application of limited conservation resources, more species will go extinct and invasive species will continue to proliferate. With a better understanding of extinction processes, a higher benefit:cost ratio will ensure better outcomes for biodiversity. We will directly address (1) the sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity by provid ....Density regulation as a major determinant of population persistence: advancing empirical and theoretical approaches to conserve biodiversity. Without efficient application of limited conservation resources, more species will go extinct and invasive species will continue to proliferate. With a better understanding of extinction processes, a higher benefit:cost ratio will ensure better outcomes for biodiversity. We will directly address (1) the sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity by providing evidence-based support for minimum viable population size targets to avoid extinction; (2) responding to climate change by determining the species- and environmentally specific contexts leading to elevated risks of extinction; and (3) protecting Australia from invasive diseases and pests by determining density targets that maximise eradication success.Read moreRead less
Up in smoke and out to sea? Carbon, water and land use change in savanna. This project aims to improve our understanding of carbon cycling in natural and transformed savannas. It seeks to resolve a large discrepancy in savanna carbon sink size as measured by flux towers compared to long-term direct measures of carbon stock change. This would improve our fundamental understanding of carbon balances (gains/losses) and residence times in these dynamic ecosystems. The long-term impacts of these land ....Up in smoke and out to sea? Carbon, water and land use change in savanna. This project aims to improve our understanding of carbon cycling in natural and transformed savannas. It seeks to resolve a large discrepancy in savanna carbon sink size as measured by flux towers compared to long-term direct measures of carbon stock change. This would improve our fundamental understanding of carbon balances (gains/losses) and residence times in these dynamic ecosystems. The long-term impacts of these land use changes on carbon storage are poorly understood, therefore this new knowledge is vital in determining the viability of 'carbon farming' in these landscapes. More accurate information would guide improved land management given the intensification of land use, weed invasion and fire regime change in northern Australia.Read moreRead less
Can there be good policy? Tracing the paths between policy intent, evidence and practical benefit in regional and remote Australia. By tracking major health, housing and education reforms currently underway across regional and remote Australia, this research generates fresh perspectives on an urgent contemporary debate in Indigenous social affairs: namely, are governments best placed to drive social change or to determine policy imperatives; and if not, are there alternate ways to generate good ....Can there be good policy? Tracing the paths between policy intent, evidence and practical benefit in regional and remote Australia. By tracking major health, housing and education reforms currently underway across regional and remote Australia, this research generates fresh perspectives on an urgent contemporary debate in Indigenous social affairs: namely, are governments best placed to drive social change or to determine policy imperatives; and if not, are there alternate ways to generate good policy? An anthropological approach will be used to observe government policy at work. The research will explore the institutional reasons behind the gap between intention and outcome in Indigenous social policy; how failure cycles in policy are replicated; and possible techniques for creating and implementing a new ethics of policy engagement.Read moreRead less
Australian savannah landscapes: past, present and future. Australian savannahs are productive and culturally and biologically significant landscapes but are vulnerable to climate change. The project will determine savannah function (carbon and water balance) for the present and assess how sensitive they have been to past climate variability. The project will then address how they may respond to future climate change.