Optimal Source Control in Urban Water Cycle Management. Major opportunities exist to improve the management of the urban water cycle by better use of source control technology such as the use of rainwater tanks and water-sensitive design. This program will optimise the use of this technology at three scales, allotment, subdivision and regional, using genetic algorithms, parallel computing and shadow pricing. The aim is to minimise community lifecycle costs subject to sustainable use of ecosystem ....Optimal Source Control in Urban Water Cycle Management. Major opportunities exist to improve the management of the urban water cycle by better use of source control technology such as the use of rainwater tanks and water-sensitive design. This program will optimise the use of this technology at three scales, allotment, subdivision and regional, using genetic algorithms, parallel computing and shadow pricing. The aim is to minimise community lifecycle costs subject to sustainable use of ecosystems and maintenance of public health standards. The benefits include national savings of the order of $2 billion and significantly reduced demand on water supply and stormwater infrastructure and its supporting ecosystems.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing pre-20th century rainfall, temperature and pressure for south-eastern Australia using palaeoclimate, documentary and early weather station data. South-eastern Australia is in the grip of a severe water crisis due to the worst drought in recorded history and increasing temperatures. This landmark project brings together a team of Australia's leading climate scientists, water managers and historians with the common goal of reconstructing south-eastern Australia's climate history. Th ....Reconstructing pre-20th century rainfall, temperature and pressure for south-eastern Australia using palaeoclimate, documentary and early weather station data. South-eastern Australia is in the grip of a severe water crisis due to the worst drought in recorded history and increasing temperatures. This landmark project brings together a team of Australia's leading climate scientists, water managers and historians with the common goal of reconstructing south-eastern Australia's climate history. The greatly extended record of annual rainfall and temperature variability will allow better planning for water storage and use, and improved testing of climate model simulations. Improving our understanding of the historical impacts of climate extremes on society will assist with planning for life in a hotter and drier future.Read moreRead less
Narrowing the scatter and assessing the uncertainty of climate change projections of Australian river flows. Recent prolonged dry conditions in south-eastern Australia have triggered water restrictions in major cities, zero irrigation allocations in the Murray-Darling region and highlighted the importance of water to this country. This project represents an integrated package of research that will enhance our understanding of the uncertainty of future annual river flows, leading to more informed ....Narrowing the scatter and assessing the uncertainty of climate change projections of Australian river flows. Recent prolonged dry conditions in south-eastern Australia have triggered water restrictions in major cities, zero irrigation allocations in the Murray-Darling region and highlighted the importance of water to this country. This project represents an integrated package of research that will enhance our understanding of the uncertainty of future annual river flows, leading to more informed decision making for the sustainable management of Australia’s increasingly scarce water resources. The outcomes from this project are highly relevant to the national research priority “An Environmentally Sustainable Australia”, particularly priority goals “Water - a critical resource” and “Responding to climate change and variability”.Read moreRead less
Assessing clouds and rainfall in Australia's community climate model - Towards an improved simulation of Australia's water resources. Climate change is likely to significantly affect Australia's water resources. A well-measured response to this challenge requires reliable projections of future climate using modern Earth System Models. By thoroughly evaluating Australia's community climate model this research will inform Australia's adaptation policy and through subsequent model development it wi ....Assessing clouds and rainfall in Australia's community climate model - Towards an improved simulation of Australia's water resources. Climate change is likely to significantly affect Australia's water resources. A well-measured response to this challenge requires reliable projections of future climate using modern Earth System Models. By thoroughly evaluating Australia's community climate model this research will inform Australia's adaptation policy and through subsequent model development it will contribute to significant improvements in our ability to understand and predict climate change. Through better informing water resource management the research constitutes an important contribution to an environmentally sustainable Australia. Read moreRead less
A graphical simulation package for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting systems. We will develop a Scalar Vector Graphics (SVG) simulation tool for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting and utilisation schemes. The generic model will be applied to existing and proposed schemes within the City of Salisbury (CoS) and will include a capture dam, one or more storage dams and an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) facility. The discret ....A graphical simulation package for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting systems. We will develop a Scalar Vector Graphics (SVG) simulation tool for optimal management and risk assessment in urban stormwater harvesting and utilisation schemes. The generic model will be applied to existing and proposed schemes within the City of Salisbury (CoS) and will include a capture dam, one or more storage dams and an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) facility. The discrete state vector will be the content of each storage unit and the daily transition will be driven by a new stochastic rainfall model (SRM). The objective will be to find a practical management policy that minimises Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).Read moreRead less
Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by t ....Using Advances in Bayesian Statistics to Estimate Australian Rainfall Variations in a Climate Change World. Modelling changes to rainfall patterns answers many important questions about changes in Australia's climate. This is essential to protecting our biodiversity and ensuring Australia's environmental sustainability. The project will address such issues as the extent to which the entire distribution of daily rainfall has changed over time, which areas of Australia have been most affected by this change and to what extent are these changes related to global climate indices. The latest advances in Bayesian statistics will be used to introduce flexibility and complexity into the model.Read moreRead less
Improved seasonal rainfall prediction for grain growers using farm level data and novel modelling. Successful grain production, a key export commodity for Australia, depends heavily on reliable seasonal forecasts. However, the highly variable climate means that for Australia’s 25,000 grain growers current forecasts lack detail in space and time. Using a combination of fuzzy classification and artificial neural networks, this project will develop a locally detailed continuously updating data-driv ....Improved seasonal rainfall prediction for grain growers using farm level data and novel modelling. Successful grain production, a key export commodity for Australia, depends heavily on reliable seasonal forecasts. However, the highly variable climate means that for Australia’s 25,000 grain growers current forecasts lack detail in space and time. Using a combination of fuzzy classification and artificial neural networks, this project will develop a locally detailed continuously updating data-driven seasonal forecast system using high density climate data from the 17,000 Grain Growers Association members and climate drivers such as sea surface temperature from the Bureau of Meteorology. After validation against observed data, the forecasts will be delivered via a web-based portal to users.Read moreRead less
A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time Scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resource Planning. Assessments of future drought risks are dependent on simulations of hydrological inputs provided by stochastic models. The current models are limited to simulating variability at a single time scale using only local observed hydrological data. This data has only limited information on the long-term climate variability which is the cause of long-term severe droughts. The proposed ....A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach for Simulating Multi-time Scale Hydrological Variability for Water Resource Planning. Assessments of future drought risks are dependent on simulations of hydrological inputs provided by stochastic models. The current models are limited to simulating variability at a single time scale using only local observed hydrological data. This data has only limited information on the long-term climate variability which is the cause of long-term severe droughts. The proposed research will develop a new Bayesian framework for simulating multi-time scale variability in hydrological data. This will enable the dynamic processes which simulate long-term variability to be identified using auxiliary information in an uncertainty framework. This will provide water resource planners with more accurate assessments of long-term drought risks.
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Responding to the threat of climate change: identifying effective strategies for the wheat industry of south-east Australia. This project will first evaluate the probable impacts of climatic change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia and will then assess the effectiveness of actual and potential adaptive management strategies designed to mitigate these impacts. The expected outcomes will include quantified impacts of future climate change and variability on wheat productio ....Responding to the threat of climate change: identifying effective strategies for the wheat industry of south-east Australia. This project will first evaluate the probable impacts of climatic change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia and will then assess the effectiveness of actual and potential adaptive management strategies designed to mitigate these impacts. The expected outcomes will include quantified impacts of future climate change and variability on wheat production in southern Australia, identification of regions at greater risk in the future and least likely to be viable in the longer run, and identification of effective adaptive management strategies designed to cope with these risks.Read moreRead less
A new paradigm for catchment management: detection, forecasting and management of water catchments with multiple steady states. Understanding the response and recovery of Australia's water catchments to climatic change and variability is become increasingly urgent. Our catchments are vulnerable because there is a fundamental gap in our understanding of how they recover from high or low rainfall periods. This project will: a) advance water management concepts; b) build tools to understand how and ....A new paradigm for catchment management: detection, forecasting and management of water catchments with multiple steady states. Understanding the response and recovery of Australia's water catchments to climatic change and variability is become increasingly urgent. Our catchments are vulnerable because there is a fundamental gap in our understanding of how they recover from high or low rainfall periods. This project will: a) advance water management concepts; b) build tools to understand how and when catchments might switch to new states when hit by a disturbance; and c) identify how best to build the buffering capacity to reduce the chance of a switch occurring. The project will make Australia's groundwater and streamflow resources more secure and make Australian researchers and water resource managers world leaders in the emerging science of catchment resilience.Read moreRead less