Measuring uncertainty in global housing markets and its risk to Australia. This project aims to develop and construct a measure of systemic risk for the national real-estate markets in Australia, and its main trading partners, namely China, Japan, New Zealand, United Kingdom and United States of America. Recently developed methodology will be used to investigate how real estate risks migrate across these countries over time, and during periods of financial turbulence. This methodology is intende ....Measuring uncertainty in global housing markets and its risk to Australia. This project aims to develop and construct a measure of systemic risk for the national real-estate markets in Australia, and its main trading partners, namely China, Japan, New Zealand, United Kingdom and United States of America. Recently developed methodology will be used to investigate how real estate risks migrate across these countries over time, and during periods of financial turbulence. This methodology is intended to be employed as part of a market stability surveillance program and for assessing the impact of real-estate risk on the overall economy. Early detection of the onset of future housing bubble collapses would be of significant benefit to policy makers, Australia’s trading partners, the real estate industry and ultimately home buyers.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE190100840
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$375,000.00
Summary
Monitoring financial bubbles using high-frequency data. This project aims to develop an econometric procedure for monitoring speculative behaviour, often labelled as bubbles, in financial markets. There has been widespread recognition that financial speculation can inflict harm on the real economy. Crises or recessions are often preceded by excessive asset market speculation. This project will utilise intraday information for bubble detection and address major technical challenges arising from h ....Monitoring financial bubbles using high-frequency data. This project aims to develop an econometric procedure for monitoring speculative behaviour, often labelled as bubbles, in financial markets. There has been widespread recognition that financial speculation can inflict harm on the real economy. Crises or recessions are often preceded by excessive asset market speculation. This project will utilise intraday information for bubble detection and address major technical challenges arising from high-frequency financial data. It is expected to significantly improve the speed and accuracy of bubble detection, thereby providing more timely and precise warning alerts for investment decisions, market surveillance and policy action.Read moreRead less
Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
The Older Australian Twins Study (OATS) Of Healthy Brain Ageing And Age-related Neurocognitive Disorders
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$940,960.00
Summary
Ageing is associated with cognitive decline and dementia. It is still not completely understood what relative contributions genes and environment play in these. This project is an extension of the Older Australian Twins Study to examine genetic and environmental factors associated with late life brain changes and dementia, and will establish an internationally significant cohort for novel discovery.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE150100795
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$365,000.00
Summary
New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important appl ....New approaches to estimating nonlinear time-varying macroeconometric models. Quantitative models are essential for formulating good policies. In a changing world, the analysis should be based on models that allow the behaviour of the economy to change over time. Due to computational limitations, however, one is often restricted to linear models, even when nonlinear ones are more appropriate. This project aims to develop new methods for estimating time-varying nonlinear models. Two important applications are also considered: one investigates how the zero lower bound on interest rates affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism; and, the other examines how uncertainties about monetary and fiscal policy affect economic growth and inflation. This project will have strong practical significance for conducting macroeconomic policy.Read moreRead less
Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to ....Measuring inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. This project aims to construct model-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation expectations uncertainty. Inflation expectations can determine economic outcomes. This project will develop non-linear time-varying models to combine information from noisy and possibly biased measures of inflation expectations from surveys and financial markets. These model-based measures are expected to be better calibrated and to provide valuable information for policymakers for formulating macroeconomic policies. They can be used to better assess the credibility of monetary policy and shed light on the causes of low inflation rate in developed economies.Read moreRead less
Change Detection in Causal Relationships and Measurement of Systemic Risk. Empirical measures of interconnectedness between financial institutions based on tests of Granger causality are currently used in detecting systemic risk. However, researchers need to define periods of calm and stress exogenously in order to implement these tests appropriately. This project aims to develop a new procedure to identify changes in causal relationships and the timing of these changes. The new approach has the ....Change Detection in Causal Relationships and Measurement of Systemic Risk. Empirical measures of interconnectedness between financial institutions based on tests of Granger causality are currently used in detecting systemic risk. However, researchers need to define periods of calm and stress exogenously in order to implement these tests appropriately. This project aims to develop a new procedure to identify changes in causal relationships and the timing of these changes. The new approach has the potential to be a significant improvement in the real-time identification of emerging turmoil in financial markets and provide an improved method for the detection of systemic risk. The new test procedure will be implemented using data for financial and non-financial institutions across Europe, the US and Australia.Read moreRead less
Policy frameworks and market/non-market activity of young and older adults . The project intends to compare the social and economic participation of young adults and older people across nations to reveal best practice policy in engaging both ends of the age spectrum in productive activity. Population ageing has implications for the wellbeing and prosperity of both the older and younger generations. This project intends to investigate how contemporary young adults and older people spend their tim ....Policy frameworks and market/non-market activity of young and older adults . The project intends to compare the social and economic participation of young adults and older people across nations to reveal best practice policy in engaging both ends of the age spectrum in productive activity. Population ageing has implications for the wellbeing and prosperity of both the older and younger generations. This project intends to investigate how contemporary young adults and older people spend their time in productive activities across countries with contrasting policy frameworks. This may yield important policy-relevant information for Australia on how to both protect the old and invest in the young, while balancing financial sustainability and the principles of social justice and fairness.Read moreRead less
Creating and sustaining a strong future for volunteering in Australia. This project seeks to answer the question of how to increase social participation by converting non-volunteers to the benefits of volunteering. In Australia today, communities and governments are increasingly dependent on volunteers to build social capital and deliver an increasing range of services. A world first, this project aims to create new theory by examining three levels of analysis: the micro level of the individual ....Creating and sustaining a strong future for volunteering in Australia. This project seeks to answer the question of how to increase social participation by converting non-volunteers to the benefits of volunteering. In Australia today, communities and governments are increasingly dependent on volunteers to build social capital and deliver an increasing range of services. A world first, this project aims to create new theory by examining three levels of analysis: the micro level of the individual volunteer or non-volunteer; the mezzo level of the volunteer-involving organisation; and the macro level of society. This innovative approach aims to identify, analyse and develop a tool to help organisations build Australia’s civil society and develop policy to create a sustainable volunteer sector into the future.Read moreRead less
Molecular Regulation Of CRH Gene Expression In The Human Placenta
Funder
National Health and Medical Research Council
Funding Amount
$70,285.00
Summary
Approximately 70% of infant death is a result of premature birth. Preterm delivery occurs in 6-10% of pregnancies, and there has been no reduction in this rate in the last 30 years. This is largely because we remain ignorant of how normal and preterm birth is controlled. Understanding the physiology of human pregnancy is a critical step in the development of ways to detect and prevent preterm birth. Our group has demonstrated a link between production of a hormone (corticotropin releasing hormon ....Approximately 70% of infant death is a result of premature birth. Preterm delivery occurs in 6-10% of pregnancies, and there has been no reduction in this rate in the last 30 years. This is largely because we remain ignorant of how normal and preterm birth is controlled. Understanding the physiology of human pregnancy is a critical step in the development of ways to detect and prevent preterm birth. Our group has demonstrated a link between production of a hormone (corticotropin releasing hormone, CRH) in the placenta and the length of time the baby is carried in the mother. In women who will deliver prematurely the rise in CRH production occurs earlier and more rapidly, while in women who deliver late the rise occurs more slowly. This work has led to the concept of a biological clock that determines the length of time the fetus will be carried by the mother before birth, and in which production of CRH in the placenta plays a central role. We have been studying how the CRH gene is controlled in placental cells. We have discovered some regions in the DNA of the CRH gene which have important roles in controlling how much CRH is made by the placenta. The experiments described in this project will determine the molecular mechanisms that control the production of CRH in the human placenta. This will be done by examining the DNA sequences involved in controlling the CRH gene and by identifying the proteins that actually perform the regulating functions that result in either increased or decreased amounts of CRH being produced by the placenta. This important information will help us better understand how normal and preterm birth is controlled, and from that knowledge new ways to detect and prevent premature birth can be developed.Read moreRead less