Testing a new explanation of cloud feedback on global climate. A new analysis suggests that the sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases is largely controlled by the upward transport of water vapour in the lower troposphere, but the analysis did not examine clouds, which must be involved for the mechanism to be valid. The aim of the proposed project is to determine whether variations in cloud implied by this new explanation are supported by observations and process models. If the explan ....Testing a new explanation of cloud feedback on global climate. A new analysis suggests that the sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases is largely controlled by the upward transport of water vapour in the lower troposphere, but the analysis did not examine clouds, which must be involved for the mechanism to be valid. The aim of the proposed project is to determine whether variations in cloud implied by this new explanation are supported by observations and process models. If the explanation is confirmed, then for the first time in over 30 years of intense research it will be possible to determine the long-term severity of global warming by examining the present-day atmosphere. The expected outcome of this research is to clarify how and why low clouds change in altered climates.Read moreRead less
Evaluation of targeting rules for implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy plays a primary role in stabilising business cycle fluctuations and in mitigating the effects of large economic shocks. This research deals with key issues in the operation of monetary policy. Our econometric analysis will provide new evidence on the short term goals pursed by central banks and improve our understanding their trade-offs. One application of our results will be an improvement in the ability to measure ....Evaluation of targeting rules for implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy plays a primary role in stabilising business cycle fluctuations and in mitigating the effects of large economic shocks. This research deals with key issues in the operation of monetary policy. Our econometric analysis will provide new evidence on the short term goals pursed by central banks and improve our understanding their trade-offs. One application of our results will be an improvement in the ability to measure and evaluate the performance of central banks. Greater evidence on the objectives and constraints of central banks will increase public knowledge and understanding of monetary policy, leading to more effective policy. Read moreRead less
Increasing Globalisation and its Economic Implications. This project will focus on globalisation and its economic implications. We will: (a) propose definitions and measure of the ?degree of globalization", (b) examine its relationship with the degree of uncertainty facing an economy, (c) study the effects of globalisation and uncertainty on productivity growth, (d) examine the effects of uncertainty on the economy and (f) provide empirical applications for the Australian economy. Our project wi ....Increasing Globalisation and its Economic Implications. This project will focus on globalisation and its economic implications. We will: (a) propose definitions and measure of the ?degree of globalization", (b) examine its relationship with the degree of uncertainty facing an economy, (c) study the effects of globalisation and uncertainty on productivity growth, (d) examine the effects of uncertainty on the economy and (f) provide empirical applications for the Australian economy. Our project will provide an important, innovative and comprehensive examination of globalization and its economic effects. In addition to making novel theoretical and empirical contributions, it will also facilitate meaningful analyses of policy issues in Australia.Read moreRead less
When the ice melts: a new perspective on the causes of Quaternary glacial terminations. The project will assemble an unprecedented palaeoclimate time series extending back to 1.2 million years ago that will allow marine and ice core records to be placed onto an absolute time scale. This will allow testing of fundamental hypotheses on why the Earth's climate shifts from glacial to interglacial states, with flow-on effects to climate models.
The Demand for Older Workers: Technology, Skill and Employment Opportunities. "Productive ageing" policies are central to Australia's strategies for the governance of population ageing. But little is known about the determinants of firms' demand for older workers. By uncovering the impact that technological change has on firms' hiring and training decisions, this study will critically complement our understanding of older workers' constrained employment opportunities. In so doing it seeks to inf ....The Demand for Older Workers: Technology, Skill and Employment Opportunities. "Productive ageing" policies are central to Australia's strategies for the governance of population ageing. But little is known about the determinants of firms' demand for older workers. By uncovering the impact that technological change has on firms' hiring and training decisions, this study will critically complement our understanding of older workers' constrained employment opportunities. In so doing it seeks to inform the long-term policy debate on how best to adjust our economy to the current major demographic and technological development. Its outcomes will be of interest and use to policy makers, industry, advocacy groups, unions and the wider community.
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Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in ....Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.Read moreRead less
Estimating and evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural macroeconomic models. This project will provide improved methods to inform Australia's macroeconomic policies and its strategies for economic development by suggesting the most adequate structural macroeconomic model for the Australian economy. Effective macroeconomic policies, in turn, assure stable economic development, smoothes effects of economic cycles and balances inflation, unemployment, the exchange rate and other macroecono ....Estimating and evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural macroeconomic models. This project will provide improved methods to inform Australia's macroeconomic policies and its strategies for economic development by suggesting the most adequate structural macroeconomic model for the Australian economy. Effective macroeconomic policies, in turn, assure stable economic development, smoothes effects of economic cycles and balances inflation, unemployment, the exchange rate and other macroeconomic indicators. All these indicators are closely linked to the welfare of the Australian people and prosperity of the Australian economy. The importance of an accurate macroeconomic analysis is increased in the current condition of inflationary pressures, fiscal challenges, climate change, and world market instabilities.Read moreRead less
Developing a model to assess the economic consequences of cannabis policy options. The potential economic benefits of the project reside in the ability of governments to make cannabis policy decisions based on assumptions of reduced economic burden of one model over another through:
1.the direct comparison in economic terms of three different models for the regulation of cannabis;
2.a model for estimating economic costs associated with cannabis which can be applied to other illicit drugs;
3 ....Developing a model to assess the economic consequences of cannabis policy options. The potential economic benefits of the project reside in the ability of governments to make cannabis policy decisions based on assumptions of reduced economic burden of one model over another through:
1.the direct comparison in economic terms of three different models for the regulation of cannabis;
2.a model for estimating economic costs associated with cannabis which can be applied to other illicit drugs;
3.improving the evidence-base for policy decision-making at all jurisdictions in Australia.
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Estimating the effects of fiscal policy. This project will develop highly flexible models for estimating the effects of fiscal policy, as well as providing insight into how economic assumptions affect these estimates and which assumptions are supported by historical experience. The models and estimates will be useful for researchers, policymakers and businesses.
Analysis of Fiscal Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions in Australia and the US using Real Time Data. This project investigates the evolution of Australian and US fiscal policy responses to macroeconomic conditions and examines the implications for future levels of public debt. A real time database of fiscal indicators will be constructed to capture information available to policymakers when making decisions. Econometric analysis of the data will involve a flexible approach that captures ....Analysis of Fiscal Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions in Australia and the US using Real Time Data. This project investigates the evolution of Australian and US fiscal policy responses to macroeconomic conditions and examines the implications for future levels of public debt. A real time database of fiscal indicators will be constructed to capture information available to policymakers when making decisions. Econometric analysis of the data will involve a flexible approach that captures how policy has changed in its focus on economic stabilisation and fiscal sustainability. The analysis also allows for forecasts of public debt that take into account the interaction between policy and the economy. The results and methods will be useful in evaluating the stance of fiscal policy and its implications for the sustainability of public debt.Read moreRead less