Improved theory and practice in econometric modelling of nonlinear spatial time series. Modern Australia faces many challenges in economic and global climate changes, which require advanced statistical technologies in modeling and forecasting of econometric spatial time series data. This project will provide flexible models and methods that enable practitioners to more accurately measure and manage economic and climatic risks.
Oceanic gateways: a primary control on global climate change? The opening and closing of oceanic gateways, narrow passageways facilitating exchange between ocean basins, has been linked to major changes in Earth’s climate. This project will link the disparate fields of geodynamics and palaeo-climatology, for the first time, through an innovative methodology that models the changing width and depth of ocean gateways through time. It will address the role of gateways in modulating Earth’s climate ....Oceanic gateways: a primary control on global climate change? The opening and closing of oceanic gateways, narrow passageways facilitating exchange between ocean basins, has been linked to major changes in Earth’s climate. This project will link the disparate fields of geodynamics and palaeo-climatology, for the first time, through an innovative methodology that models the changing width and depth of ocean gateways through time. It will address the role of gateways in modulating Earth’s climate at key periods during the planet’s transition from a “Greenhouse” to “Icehouse” World.Read moreRead less
Crosstalk between breast cancer cells and the microenvironment to promote metastasis. Breast cancer spread (metastasis) to distant tissues is usually fatal. It is now clear that cross-talk between cancer cells and other normal cells is essential for metastasis and previous studies have discovered two key mechanisms: tumour cell suppression of immune defence pathways to escape immune recognition, and activation of proteases to promote invasion and blood vessel growth. Using unique models and cell ....Crosstalk between breast cancer cells and the microenvironment to promote metastasis. Breast cancer spread (metastasis) to distant tissues is usually fatal. It is now clear that cross-talk between cancer cells and other normal cells is essential for metastasis and previous studies have discovered two key mechanisms: tumour cell suppression of immune defence pathways to escape immune recognition, and activation of proteases to promote invasion and blood vessel growth. Using unique models and cellular imaging, this project aims to investigate the cell specific functions of these pathways and the therapeutic potential of altering their expression and function. This project may lead to the development of novel predictors of metastasis in patients and new targeted therapeutics to prevent breast cancer spread.Read moreRead less
Investigating the controls on the extent of tidewater glaciers. This project aims to improve our ability to model tidewater glaciers. The project will conduct studies of two iconic glacial systems in Alaska: Glacier Bay and Columbia Glacier. These glaciers have recently experienced rapid retreat and contributed to sea level rise. In particular, the Grand Pacific Glacier has retreated 100 kilometres up Glacier Bay, the greatest recorded glacier retreat in the last 200 years. The project will use ....Investigating the controls on the extent of tidewater glaciers. This project aims to improve our ability to model tidewater glaciers. The project will conduct studies of two iconic glacial systems in Alaska: Glacier Bay and Columbia Glacier. These glaciers have recently experienced rapid retreat and contributed to sea level rise. In particular, the Grand Pacific Glacier has retreated 100 kilometres up Glacier Bay, the greatest recorded glacier retreat in the last 200 years. The project will use geomorphic mapping, dating and climate reanalysis to better understand the long term behaviour of these glaciers and the drivers of recent retreat. An expected outcome from the project is a better understanding of the long term behaviour of tidewater glaciers and an improvement in our ability to predict sea level rise from them.Read moreRead less
Safeguarding coral reef fisheries for future food security. This Fellowship aims to address the vulnerability of coral reef fisheries in Australia and the Indo-Pacific by identifying fishery targets that benefit human nutrition and will persist despite declining coral habitats and rising water temperature. This project will advance knowledge on coral and fish responses to increasingly frequent marine heatwaves, using novel methodologies rooted in ecological modelling, experimental marine biology ....Safeguarding coral reef fisheries for future food security. This Fellowship aims to address the vulnerability of coral reef fisheries in Australia and the Indo-Pacific by identifying fishery targets that benefit human nutrition and will persist despite declining coral habitats and rising water temperature. This project will advance knowledge on coral and fish responses to increasingly frequent marine heatwaves, using novel methodologies rooted in ecological modelling, experimental marine biology and climate forecasting. Expected outcomes include (i) a comprehensive toolbox for improved management of coral reefs and associated fisheries in Australia and beyond, and (ii) an integrated socio-ecological model for predicting coral reef fishery responses under environmental change.Read moreRead less
A Bayesian State Space Methodology for Forecasting Stock Market Volatility and Associated Time-varying Risk Premia. Accurate prediction of stock market volatility is critical for effective financial risk management. Along with information on volatility embedded in historical stock market returns, the prices of options written on the underlying stocks also reflect the option market's assessment of future volatility. This project will exploit this dual data source in a completely new way, using it ....A Bayesian State Space Methodology for Forecasting Stock Market Volatility and Associated Time-varying Risk Premia. Accurate prediction of stock market volatility is critical for effective financial risk management. Along with information on volatility embedded in historical stock market returns, the prices of options written on the underlying stocks also reflect the option market's assessment of future volatility. This project will exploit this dual data source in a completely new way, using it to produce forecasts of both volatility itself and the premia factored into asset prices as a result of traders' perceptions of volatility risk. State-of-the-art statistical methods will be used to produce up-dates of the probability of extreme volatility and/or extreme risk aversion, as new market data becomes available each trading day.Read moreRead less
The causes and effects of mortality in tropical Australian trees. Drought can cause the widespread death of tropical trees resulting in large emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, but predictions of tree death during drought remain rudimentary. This project will combine new data and modelling on how Australian tropical trees respond to drought to improve estimates of tree mortality risk and its impacts.
Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon release ....Utilizing the geological record to constrain the response of marine ecosystems and global carbon cycling to warming and de-oxygenation. Earth history is punctuated by a huge variety of transitions and perturbations in climate, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystems, some of which may hold direct future-relevant information. In the oceans, these are closely linked in a complex web of feedbacks, as well as to the oxygenation of the ocean and the ultimate geological fate of excessive carbon released into the atmosphere – burial of carbon in sediments. This project will develop a computer model representation of this coupled carbon-climate-life system and test this against the geological record, explore the causes and consequences of carbon release events and extinctions as well as how the ocean floor delivery and preservation of organic carbon responds.Read moreRead less
An evolutionary landscape to better predict our future climate. Soil microbial communities are the most complicated and difficult to study on Earth, but their effects on our climate are profound. This project will examine the evolution of microorganisms and their viruses in soil using novel methods. It will uncover how the evolution of one microbial species influences the evolution of other community members. It will also apply a new model of evolution to the viruses that infect these microorgan ....An evolutionary landscape to better predict our future climate. Soil microbial communities are the most complicated and difficult to study on Earth, but their effects on our climate are profound. This project will examine the evolution of microorganisms and their viruses in soil using novel methods. It will uncover how the evolution of one microbial species influences the evolution of other community members. It will also apply a new model of evolution to the viruses that infect these microorganisms, constructing a viral ‘tree of life’. This improved fundamental understanding of soil communities will be used to study climate feedback from permafrost wetlands, a key and poorly constrained input of global climate models, improving predictions of our future climate.Read moreRead less
Do regional climate models rain too much? This project aims to provide a best-practice, in-depth assessment of the climate model simulations that are used to support regional climate change impact assessments. The focus will be on rainfall and the hydrological cycle as these aspects are especially impacts-relevant. Innovation comes from the application of a common benchmarking framework which includes observational uncertainty and process-based understanding to address common modelling limitatio ....Do regional climate models rain too much? This project aims to provide a best-practice, in-depth assessment of the climate model simulations that are used to support regional climate change impact assessments. The focus will be on rainfall and the hydrological cycle as these aspects are especially impacts-relevant. Innovation comes from the application of a common benchmarking framework which includes observational uncertainty and process-based understanding to address common modelling limitations. Any model failings identified will feed into model development strategies and support enhanced decision-making informed by regional climate model simulations.Read moreRead less