Precipitation in shallow convection over the Southern Ocean. This project aims to quantify the amount of precipitation over the Southern Ocean and identify the key dynamical and microphysical processes that lead to its development. Large uncertainties exist in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, which limits the ability to model the coupled Southern Ocean climate system. Observations from the RV Investigator, an Australian marine research vessel, have revealed heavy precipitation event ....Precipitation in shallow convection over the Southern Ocean. This project aims to quantify the amount of precipitation over the Southern Ocean and identify the key dynamical and microphysical processes that lead to its development. Large uncertainties exist in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, which limits the ability to model the coupled Southern Ocean climate system. Observations from the RV Investigator, an Australian marine research vessel, have revealed heavy precipitation events within the shallow convection commonly found between fronts that have not been captured by either satellite observations or numerical models. This project will improve weather forecasts, including precipitation, and climate projections over the Southern Ocean and the adjoining Antarctic and the southern part of Australia.Read moreRead less
The impact of India-Asia tectonics on climate. This interdisciplinary project aims to determine the controls of tectonics on global climate in the last 50 million years. A combination of tectonics, paleogeography, climate modelling and high-performance computing will be applied to test systematically outstanding issues in the reconstruction of the Indo-Asia region and their landmass/seaways configurations and topography, which have bedevilled previous models of paleoclimate evolution. The propos ....The impact of India-Asia tectonics on climate. This interdisciplinary project aims to determine the controls of tectonics on global climate in the last 50 million years. A combination of tectonics, paleogeography, climate modelling and high-performance computing will be applied to test systematically outstanding issues in the reconstruction of the Indo-Asia region and their landmass/seaways configurations and topography, which have bedevilled previous models of paleoclimate evolution. The proposal expects to generate novel knowledge in the area at the boundary between tectonics, paleoclimate modelling and present-day climate. This provides significant benefits to the interpretation of tectonics–climate coupling as current drivers of climate evolution.Read moreRead less
Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how like ....Understanding extreme wind gusts and associated risks in NSW. Wind gusts are rare bursts of high wind, often associated with thunderstorm outflows. They can do significant structural damage, and their rarity and small scale make prediction and risk assessment difficult. This proposal seeks to better understand and predict wind gusts and their impacts to aid in planning. The project aims to use past observations, modelling, and basic theory to show what conditions lead to wind gusts and how likely they are to exceed key thresholds. It targets important scientific and practical issues such as the joint occurrence of gusts and high rainfall, role of gusts in contributing to dust and other airborne pollutants, impacts of gusts on subsequent storm activity, and gusts in a warming climate.Read moreRead less
Novel techniques for interpreting atmospheric variability and its drivers. This project aims to improve the understanding of the causes of variability in atmospheric greenhouse gases, leading to better knowledge of how such processes will evolve in a changing climate. The project expects to use new measurement techniques to gain information about the spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric greenhouse gases. With the use of regional and global scale models, the measurements will be used t ....Novel techniques for interpreting atmospheric variability and its drivers. This project aims to improve the understanding of the causes of variability in atmospheric greenhouse gases, leading to better knowledge of how such processes will evolve in a changing climate. The project expects to use new measurement techniques to gain information about the spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric greenhouse gases. With the use of regional and global scale models, the measurements will be used to understand greenhouse gas fluxes and provide independent verification of current estimates. Expected outcomes include improved methods for verifying greenhouse gas emissions, which will contribute to improved emissions inventories and accounting promised under international agreements.Read moreRead less
Improving the avoidance and prediction of turbulence from thunderstorms. One of the most critical weather-related safety issues for aviation is atmospheric turbulence caused by thunderstorms. Thunderstorm-generated turbulence is responsible for frequent serious injuries and significant costs to airlines that are ultimately passed on to passengers. Using extensive new data, case studies and state-of-the-art simulations, this project aims to improve our understanding of the dynamics and behaviour ....Improving the avoidance and prediction of turbulence from thunderstorms. One of the most critical weather-related safety issues for aviation is atmospheric turbulence caused by thunderstorms. Thunderstorm-generated turbulence is responsible for frequent serious injuries and significant costs to airlines that are ultimately passed on to passengers. Using extensive new data, case studies and state-of-the-art simulations, this project aims to improve our understanding of the dynamics and behaviour of thunderstorm-generated turbulence and its representation in weather forecast models. Expected outcomes of this project include the development of new methods to avoid and predict turbulence for use by the aviation industry. This research should provide significant benefits, such as safer and more efficient air travel.Read moreRead less
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme ....ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. This Centre aims to transform understanding of past and present climate extremes and revolutionise Australia’s capability to predict them into the future. Climate extremes cost Australia up to $4 billion a year and will intensify over coming decades. This Centre’s blue-sky research will discover processes that explain the behaviour of present and future climate extremes. It will use its researchers, data, modelling, collaboration, graduate programme and early career researcher mentoring to transform Australia’s capacity to predict climate extremes. This research is expected to make Australia more resilient to climate extremes and minimise risks from climate extremes to the Australian environment, society and economy.Read moreRead less
Trends in polar sea ice and associated global atmospheric circulations. The project aims to analyse the trends in sea ice extent over the polar regions, and explain them in terms of changes in the local and remote atmospheric circulation. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has decreased dramatically, while increasing in the Antarctic. The resolution of this paradox is a pressing issue in climate science, as is the broad question of how sea ice influences, and is influenced by, climate conditions ....Trends in polar sea ice and associated global atmospheric circulations. The project aims to analyse the trends in sea ice extent over the polar regions, and explain them in terms of changes in the local and remote atmospheric circulation. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has decreased dramatically, while increasing in the Antarctic. The resolution of this paradox is a pressing issue in climate science, as is the broad question of how sea ice influences, and is influenced by, climate conditions in the mid-latitudes and tropics. Anticipated outcomes include a better understanding of the nature of links between Australian climate and Antarctic ice, and between United States climate extremes and Arctic ice.Read moreRead less
Do regional climate models rain too much? This project aims to provide a best-practice, in-depth assessment of the climate model simulations that are used to support regional climate change impact assessments. The focus will be on rainfall and the hydrological cycle as these aspects are especially impacts-relevant. Innovation comes from the application of a common benchmarking framework which includes observational uncertainty and process-based understanding to address common modelling limitatio ....Do regional climate models rain too much? This project aims to provide a best-practice, in-depth assessment of the climate model simulations that are used to support regional climate change impact assessments. The focus will be on rainfall and the hydrological cycle as these aspects are especially impacts-relevant. Innovation comes from the application of a common benchmarking framework which includes observational uncertainty and process-based understanding to address common modelling limitations. Any model failings identified will feed into model development strategies and support enhanced decision-making informed by regional climate model simulations.Read moreRead less
Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO e ....Predictability of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This project aims to improve understanding of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the world’s largest source of climate variability. ENSO’s effects are so large that knowledge of its current phase and forecasts of its future phase underpin seasonal rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone forecasts worldwide. In Australia, ENSO cycles cause drought and floods. Using a suite of empirical observations and numerical models to analyse ENSO event precursors, initiation and predictability, this project intends to enhance skill in inter-seasonal climate forecasting and help those sectors reliant on accurate prediction.Read moreRead less
Understanding the Origin and Development of Extreme and Mega Bushfires. Extreme and megafires result in significant damage to property and infrastructure and are associated with large suppression costs. These events form when separate fires Merge. Their increase occurrence in recent seasons highlights the importance of developing tools and technologies that better predict extreme events to aid fire response and inform strategies for greater resilience. This project combines fire field experiment ....Understanding the Origin and Development of Extreme and Mega Bushfires. Extreme and megafires result in significant damage to property and infrastructure and are associated with large suppression costs. These events form when separate fires Merge. Their increase occurrence in recent seasons highlights the importance of developing tools and technologies that better predict extreme events to aid fire response and inform strategies for greater resilience. This project combines fire field experiments with computer modelling to determine factors driving extreme fire development, and develop new knowledge and models. These enable better prediction of active fires, enhance the knowledge base of fire managers for critical decision making and to improve risk modelling and mitigation planning for fire-prone communities.Read moreRead less