Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
Read moreRead less
Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormou ....The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormous. Any developed or developing country will profit from such advanced decision-making approaches. Therefore it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial investment and other relevant sectors.Read moreRead less
Predicting Roll Angular Motion. The roll angular motion, or RAM, of a ship denotes its oscillation about its longitudinal axis, primarily caused by wave motion. The ability to predict RAM is of significant practical utility. For example, in defence-related work it plays a role in determining accuracy of weapons systems. We suggest a technique for predicting RAM. Our method borrows from both parametric and nonparametric statistics, in that a sinusoidal model is fitted to data but only over a ....Predicting Roll Angular Motion. The roll angular motion, or RAM, of a ship denotes its oscillation about its longitudinal axis, primarily caused by wave motion. The ability to predict RAM is of significant practical utility. For example, in defence-related work it plays a role in determining accuracy of weapons systems. We suggest a technique for predicting RAM. Our method borrows from both parametric and nonparametric statistics, in that a sinusoidal model is fitted to data but only over a short time interval. We show how to both assess and correct error. In particular, we propose methods for attaching probabilities to the accuracy of predictions.Read moreRead less
Enabling three dimensional stochastic geological modelling. This project aims to develop technologies to mitigate three dimensional (3D) geological risk in resources management. This project expects to create new knowledge and methods in the field of 3D geological modelling through the innovative application of mathematical methods, structural geology concepts and probabilistic programming. The expected outcomes are an enhanced capability to model the subsurface, characterise model uncertainty a ....Enabling three dimensional stochastic geological modelling. This project aims to develop technologies to mitigate three dimensional (3D) geological risk in resources management. This project expects to create new knowledge and methods in the field of 3D geological modelling through the innovative application of mathematical methods, structural geology concepts and probabilistic programming. The expected outcomes are an enhanced capability to model the subsurface, characterise model uncertainty and test multiple geological scenarios. This enhanced capability is important for the future of Australia's subsurface management, including urban geology and our continuously growing sustainable resources industry.Read moreRead less
Three-dimensional Bayesian Modelling of Geological and Geophysical data. The project aims to develop technologies enabling rapid informed decision-making related to the management of natural resources, including critical metals, copper and water. This new technology will support a greener future, securing our energy future, our access to clean water and reduce the mining footprint. Expected outcomes include an enhanced capability in interoperable, integrated three-dimensional geological and geop ....Three-dimensional Bayesian Modelling of Geological and Geophysical data. The project aims to develop technologies enabling rapid informed decision-making related to the management of natural resources, including critical metals, copper and water. This new technology will support a greener future, securing our energy future, our access to clean water and reduce the mining footprint. Expected outcomes include an enhanced capability in interoperable, integrated three-dimensional geological and geophysical modelling in order to predictively characterise sub-surface geology. The outcome will be an open-source forecasting dashboard enabling decision making while considering underlying risk related to resource extractions and management with significant benefits to the Australian society (lower emissions, clean water).Read moreRead less
Predictive analytics from at home telemonitoring of vital signs. Predictive analytics from at home telemonitoring of vital signs. This project aims to reduce unscheduled admissions to hospital, by developing statistical models of people’s health using longitudinal measurements of vital signs and questionnaires. Hospital costs are becoming unsustainable and will overwhelm state budgets within thirty years. Telehealth monitoring to manage chronic disease is becoming increasingly routine internatio ....Predictive analytics from at home telemonitoring of vital signs. Predictive analytics from at home telemonitoring of vital signs. This project aims to reduce unscheduled admissions to hospital, by developing statistical models of people’s health using longitudinal measurements of vital signs and questionnaires. Hospital costs are becoming unsustainable and will overwhelm state budgets within thirty years. Telehealth monitoring to manage chronic disease is becoming increasingly routine internationally and should reduce unnecessary hospital admissions and health service costs. To scale up telehealth services nationally, automated means of assessing changes in an individual health status are needed. This project’s automated risk assessment models are expected to identify exacerbations and orchestrate an optimal response from health services to reduce unscheduled admissions to hospital.Read moreRead less
Integrated Farm Modelling to Improve Resilience and Sustainable Prosperity. This project aims to improve farm resilience, farm management, and economic decision-making in Australia and internationally. It expects to generate new interdisciplinary knowledge to integrate our understanding of agro-ecosystems and innovative tools to assess their status and manage their operations more effectively. Expected outcomes include the ability to inform farmers, bankers, and land managers about the trade-off ....Integrated Farm Modelling to Improve Resilience and Sustainable Prosperity. This project aims to improve farm resilience, farm management, and economic decision-making in Australia and internationally. It expects to generate new interdisciplinary knowledge to integrate our understanding of agro-ecosystems and innovative tools to assess their status and manage their operations more effectively. Expected outcomes include the ability to inform farmers, bankers, and land managers about the trade-offs between resilience and efficiency on farms. This should provide significant benefits, including the ability to minimize financial risks to farmers and banks, allow better investment decisions, and achieve sustainable long-term outcomes for both private and public well-being.Read moreRead less
CropVision: A next-generation system for predicting crop production. Accurate and timely production estimates are essential to Australia’s grain producers and industry to better deal with down side risk caused by climate extremes and market volatilities. However, current systems for predicting crop production are inaccurate and unreliable. This project aims to develop a next generation system for advance and high accuracy predictions for yield, crop type and area at field scale. This will be don ....CropVision: A next-generation system for predicting crop production. Accurate and timely production estimates are essential to Australia’s grain producers and industry to better deal with down side risk caused by climate extremes and market volatilities. However, current systems for predicting crop production are inaccurate and unreliable. This project aims to develop a next generation system for advance and high accuracy predictions for yield, crop type and area at field scale. This will be done by integrating the state of the art global climate models (GCM), biophysical crop modelling, and high-resolution earth observation technologies. This project will deliver a next generation crop prediction system to predict crop production at field scale for improved decision-making and enhancing resilience.Read moreRead less
Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less