Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100819
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$281,600.00
Summary
Measuring the improbable: optimal Monte Carlo methods for rare event simulation of maxima of dependent random variables. Some events occurring with low frequency can have dramatic consequences: natural catastrophes, economic crises, system malfunctions. Estimating their probabilities is a very difficult problem. This project will develop new simulation methods capable of delivering the most precise and efficient estimators for the probabilities of such events.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE130100291
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$374,595.00
Summary
Adaptive control of stochastic queueing networks. Queues of items competing for service appear on the road, in health-care, in manufacturing and in communication systems. This project will set up methodology for adaptive control and resource allocation for stochastic queueing network models applicable to a variety of scenarios accounting for parameter uncertainty.
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE160100741
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$382,274.00
Summary
Tractable Bayesian algorithms for intractable Bayesian problems. This project seeks to develop computationally efficient and scalable Bayesian algorithms to estimate the parameters of complex models and ensure inferences drawn from the models can be trusted. Bayesian parameter estimation and model validation procedures are currently computationally intractable for many complex models of interest in science and technology. These include biological processes such as the efficacy of heart disease, ....Tractable Bayesian algorithms for intractable Bayesian problems. This project seeks to develop computationally efficient and scalable Bayesian algorithms to estimate the parameters of complex models and ensure inferences drawn from the models can be trusted. Bayesian parameter estimation and model validation procedures are currently computationally intractable for many complex models of interest in science and technology. These include biological processes such as the efficacy of heart disease, wound healing and skin cancer treatments. Potential outcomes of the project include new algorithms to significantly economise computations and improved understanding of the mechanisms of experimental data generation. Improved models of wound healing, skin cancer growth and heart physiology supported by these algorithms could improve population health.Read moreRead less
Time consistency, risk-mitigation and partially observable systems. This project aims to find optimal decision rules that mitigate risk in a time consistent manner for partially observable systems. Many problems in conservation management and engineering systems are dependent on random environments and entail risk of failure. The challenge of consistently minimising such a risk while achieving satisfactory and sustainable resource consumption is considerable. This project aims to develop analyti ....Time consistency, risk-mitigation and partially observable systems. This project aims to find optimal decision rules that mitigate risk in a time consistent manner for partially observable systems. Many problems in conservation management and engineering systems are dependent on random environments and entail risk of failure. The challenge of consistently minimising such a risk while achieving satisfactory and sustainable resource consumption is considerable. This project aims to develop analytical and numerical methods for optimal control in such scenarios. These methods will have application to fishery management, communication networks, power systems and social resource allocation scenarios.Read moreRead less
ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers of Big Data, Big Models, New Insights. In today's world, massive amounts of data in a variety of forms are collected daily from a multitude of sources. Many of the resulting data sets have the potential to make vital contributions to society, business and government, as well as impact on international developments, but are so large or complex that they are difficult to process and analyse using traditional tools. The aim of this ....ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers of Big Data, Big Models, New Insights. In today's world, massive amounts of data in a variety of forms are collected daily from a multitude of sources. Many of the resulting data sets have the potential to make vital contributions to society, business and government, as well as impact on international developments, but are so large or complex that they are difficult to process and analyse using traditional tools. The aim of this Centre is to create innovative mathematical and statistical models that can uncover the knowledge concealed within the size and complexity of these big data sets, with a focus on using the models to deliver insight into problems vital to the Centre's Collaborative Domains: Healthy People, Sustainable Environments and Prosperous Societies.Read moreRead less
Understanding the effects of individual variation on population dynamics. Recent empirical studies have shown that trait variation among individuals in a population can have a significant impact on population dynamics. Given the considerable resources devoted to managing populations in Australia, it is vital individual variation be understood. This project will use the tools of modern probability theory to investigate the effect of trait variation on population-level quantities, such as the prob ....Understanding the effects of individual variation on population dynamics. Recent empirical studies have shown that trait variation among individuals in a population can have a significant impact on population dynamics. Given the considerable resources devoted to managing populations in Australia, it is vital individual variation be understood. This project will use the tools of modern probability theory to investigate the effect of trait variation on population-level quantities, such as the probability of extinction and the long term equilibrium level. This work will lead to better strategies for managing invasive diseases and pests, thus helping to protect Australia's biodiversity. The methods developed will be applicable to areas beyond population dynamics.Read moreRead less
Development of population-level algorithms for modelling genomic variation and its impact on cellular function in animals and plants. The purpose of this project is to develop mathematical and computational tools which will enable researchers to model high-throughput biological data at the population level. These models will be used to uncover the effect that genetic variation has on the physiology of the cell and the organism.
New Methods in Theory and Cosmic Applications of Spherical Random Fields. This project aims to investigate and model spherical random fields which are described as solutions of stochastic differential equations on a sphere or a ball. The project plans to study properties and develop spectral analysis of these solutions. It then plans to use the obtained theoretical results to construct new methods for numerical approximation and statistical estimation of these random fields. In particular, it pl ....New Methods in Theory and Cosmic Applications of Spherical Random Fields. This project aims to investigate and model spherical random fields which are described as solutions of stochastic differential equations on a sphere or a ball. The project plans to study properties and develop spectral analysis of these solutions. It then plans to use the obtained theoretical results to construct new methods for numerical approximation and statistical estimation of these random fields. In particular, it plans to develop novel asymptotic and statistical methodology for tensor random fields. The project will apply the results to model and analyse cosmic microwave background data. Expected outcomes will improve the accuracy in determining cosmological parameters and provide novel tools for better understanding of the universe during its early stages.Read moreRead less
Large Markov decision processes and combinatorial optimisation. Markov decision processes continue to gain in popularity for modelling a wide range of applications ranging from analysis of supply chains and queueing networks to cognitive science and control of autonomous vehicles. Nonetheless, they tend to become numerically intractable as the size of the model grows fast. Recent works use machine learning techniques to overcome this crucial issue, but with no convergence guarantee. This project ....Large Markov decision processes and combinatorial optimisation. Markov decision processes continue to gain in popularity for modelling a wide range of applications ranging from analysis of supply chains and queueing networks to cognitive science and control of autonomous vehicles. Nonetheless, they tend to become numerically intractable as the size of the model grows fast. Recent works use machine learning techniques to overcome this crucial issue, but with no convergence guarantee. This project aims to provide theoretically sound frameworks for solving large Markov decision processes, and exploit them to solve important combinatorial optimisation problems. This timely project can promote Australia's position in the development of such novel frameworks for many scientific and industrial applications.Read moreRead less
Random network models with applications in biology. Complex biological systems consist of a large number of interacting agents or components, and so can be studied using mathematical random network models. We aim to gain deeper insights into the laws emerging as the random networks evolve in time. This can help us to deal with dangerous disease epidemics and better understand the human brain.