Estimation and Inference in Weakly Identified Models. Economic and social systems are made up of interacting components leading to complex structures that are difficult to predict and manage. Consequently policy analysis and decision-making must be informed by statistical analysis of data. In many situations the informational content of observations is minimal; examples of such situations are found in the areas of education, health, finance and various aspects of macroeconomic analysis. This pro ....Estimation and Inference in Weakly Identified Models. Economic and social systems are made up of interacting components leading to complex structures that are difficult to predict and manage. Consequently policy analysis and decision-making must be informed by statistical analysis of data. In many situations the informational content of observations is minimal; examples of such situations are found in the areas of education, health, finance and various aspects of macroeconomic analysis. This project aims to develop methods of estimation and inference that make more efficient use of the information available in data. This will lead to more precise statistical analyses, resulting in a clearer understanding of economic and social systems, and better informed policy analysis and decision-making.Read moreRead less
Modelling the Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks: Implications for Australian Asset Markets. Three main outcomes of the project are as follows. First, the relative strengths of the transmission mechanisms linking monetary policy and asset markets will be better identified. This will lead to a better understanding of monetary policy thereby enabling the Reserve Bank to achieve its policy goals of inflation operating at or near the target rate, and for currency markets to exhibit ....Modelling the Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks: Implications for Australian Asset Markets. Three main outcomes of the project are as follows. First, the relative strengths of the transmission mechanisms linking monetary policy and asset markets will be better identified. This will lead to a better understanding of monetary policy thereby enabling the Reserve Bank to achieve its policy goals of inflation operating at or near the target rate, and for currency markets to exhibit stability. Second, a number of empirical puzzles relating to monetary policy and asset markets in general, that exist in the empirical literature, will be solved. Third, the project will lead to a number of international papers which will add to the international reputation of Australia as a leading research nation.Read moreRead less
Flexible Models and Methods for Longitudinal Data. The availability of increasingly large data sets offers the potential to improve understandings of many phenomena. However, without models for these phenomenon and methods to analyse the data generated by them, information contained in such data cannot be extracted. This project aims to advance statistical methods and models for analysing data that are collected on a large number of individuals at many time points. In particular, data collected ....Flexible Models and Methods for Longitudinal Data. The availability of increasingly large data sets offers the potential to improve understandings of many phenomena. However, without models for these phenomenon and methods to analyse the data generated by them, information contained in such data cannot be extracted. This project aims to advance statistical methods and models for analysing data that are collected on a large number of individuals at many time points. In particular, data collected from mobile phone applications will be used to understand the effect that training regimes have on cognitive functioning and how these effects vary with individual characteristics.Read moreRead less
High-frequency Estimation of Term Structure Models at the Zero Lower Bound. This project aims to quantify monetary policy shocks as shifts of the entire term structure of interest rates, when the central bank’s policy rate is constrained at the near-zero level. The proposed method will use a high-dimensional panel of high frequency government bond data. The term structure and resultant policy shocks estimated at intra-day frequencies for major economies including Australia, will be made publicly ....High-frequency Estimation of Term Structure Models at the Zero Lower Bound. This project aims to quantify monetary policy shocks as shifts of the entire term structure of interest rates, when the central bank’s policy rate is constrained at the near-zero level. The proposed method will use a high-dimensional panel of high frequency government bond data. The term structure and resultant policy shocks estimated at intra-day frequencies for major economies including Australia, will be made publicly available. This project expects to deepen our understanding of how monetary policy decisions affect the macroeconomy in a near-zero interest-rate environment. This should provide significant benefits to policymakers for implementing and monitoring monetary policy in achieving desired economic outcomes.Read moreRead less
Macroeconomic and Financial Modelling in an Era of Extremes. This project aims to develop methods to allow workhorse models in economics and finance to better reflect tail events--low probability extreme events, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to address fundamental technical challenges in the estimation of such models, develop a coherent framework for counterfactual analysis of these models and propose methods to apply these models in a big-data environ ....Macroeconomic and Financial Modelling in an Era of Extremes. This project aims to develop methods to allow workhorse models in economics and finance to better reflect tail events--low probability extreme events, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to address fundamental technical challenges in the estimation of such models, develop a coherent framework for counterfactual analysis of these models and propose methods to apply these models in a big-data environment. Expected outcomes include new insights into the transmission of tail risks in the global economic and financial system. This should provide significant benefits, including guidance to Australian and international policymakers charged with maintaining stability in the face of extreme events.Read moreRead less
Efficient pooling of cross-section and time series data using Bayesian machine learning with two econometric applications. In this project, we adapt a Bayesian modelling strategy, namely the minimum message length principle, to the problem of efficient partitioning of economic units, such as firms or countries, into groups whose behavioural patterns are similar within each group but distinct across groups. This methodology can incorporate the requirements of economic theory. The resulting softwa ....Efficient pooling of cross-section and time series data using Bayesian machine learning with two econometric applications. In this project, we adapt a Bayesian modelling strategy, namely the minimum message length principle, to the problem of efficient partitioning of economic units, such as firms or countries, into groups whose behavioural patterns are similar within each group but distinct across groups. This methodology can incorporate the requirements of economic theory. The resulting software will be developed for the Web. We consider two specific applications, namely modelling gasoline demand in OECD countries, and finding the foreign factor with the most predictive power for the growth rate of the Australian economy. The second application is of considerable national interest.Read moreRead less
Statistical Analysis of State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers. This project aims to provide a new statistical analysis of the government spending multiplier by acknowledging that government spending is the sum of sectoral spending which has heterogeneous effects on the economy. An added complication is that the multiplier can also be state-dependent, meaning that its magnitude can differ across recessions and expansions. Expected outcomes of this project include a better understanding ....Statistical Analysis of State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers. This project aims to provide a new statistical analysis of the government spending multiplier by acknowledging that government spending is the sum of sectoral spending which has heterogeneous effects on the economy. An added complication is that the multiplier can also be state-dependent, meaning that its magnitude can differ across recessions and expansions. Expected outcomes of this project include a better understanding of the components of the multiplier by novel decomposition and the development of a new statistical test for the state-dependency of the multiplier. This should provide significant benefits to researchers by bringing in new tools and insights and to policymakers by providing timely guidance on fiscal policies.Read moreRead less
Prior sensitivity analysis for Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo output. This project aims to develop the first set of techniques to implement an automated output sensitivity analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods. Computationally intense Bayesian MCMC provide a powerful alternative to classical methods for the estimation of economic models. An obstacle to their wider application is that researchers need to specify prior beliefs about model parameters that will affect t ....Prior sensitivity analysis for Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo output. This project aims to develop the first set of techniques to implement an automated output sensitivity analysis for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods. Computationally intense Bayesian MCMC provide a powerful alternative to classical methods for the estimation of economic models. An obstacle to their wider application is that researchers need to specify prior beliefs about model parameters that will affect the results. The expected outcomes will enable researchers to undertake a routine assessment of the sensitivity of the results to prior inputs.Read moreRead less
New approaches for testing in nonlinear models. The outcome of this project is a new econometric methodology that will be particularly useful for developing our understanding of Australian (and global) financial markets. Specific benefits are that (i) our value-at-risk models will enhance national and international awareness of issues relating to financial risk management; (ii) our exchange rate pass through model will aid the development of Australian trade and pricing policies and (iii) our du ....New approaches for testing in nonlinear models. The outcome of this project is a new econometric methodology that will be particularly useful for developing our understanding of Australian (and global) financial markets. Specific benefits are that (i) our value-at-risk models will enhance national and international awareness of issues relating to financial risk management; (ii) our exchange rate pass through model will aid the development of Australian trade and pricing policies and (iii) our duration models for trade in Australian stocks will lead to a better understanding of the microstructure of the Australian stock market.Read moreRead less
A Multivariate Dynamic Factor Model of the Australian Business Cycle: Specification, Estimation and Empirical Results. The project aims to extend greatly existing models of national and international business cycles by developing a general class of dynamic factor models for Australia. The project provides a significant contribution to business cycle modelling by solving the intractability problems common to existing classes of dynamic factor models. A key innovation is the development of a simul ....A Multivariate Dynamic Factor Model of the Australian Business Cycle: Specification, Estimation and Empirical Results. The project aims to extend greatly existing models of national and international business cycles by developing a general class of dynamic factor models for Australia. The project provides a significant contribution to business cycle modelling by solving the intractability problems common to existing classes of dynamic factor models. A key innovation is the development of a simulation based estimator to circumvent the statistical and computational problems associated with existing estimators. The expected outcome of the project will be a more reliable way to monitor the phases of the cycle and forecast turning points, which will be of substantial national benefit.Read moreRead less