Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of ....Investment Approaches and Applications in Financial Markets: Evolutionary Kernel Based Subset Time-Series Using Semi-Parametric Approaches. The project will develop new investment assessments based on subset time-series modeling. Innovative evolutionary kernel smoothing algorithms using semi-parametric approaches will be introduced. The project will make three important applications of this modeling in financial markets: a) benchmarking and evaluation of inflation-indexed bonds; b) evaluation of the performance of global diversified investment funds; and c) prediction to provide early warning of the emergence of destabilising deflation or inflation. These three applications will lead to improved risk management practices and investment performance. Recursive algorithms will provide new statistical methods to study investment asset price movements and market volatility.
Read moreRead less
The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of ....The improvement of climate change investigations by developing and applying innovative evolutionary subset time series modelling using semi-parametric sparse-patterned approaches. With an estimated US$6.98 trillion loss indicated in the Stern review, severe climate change will make world climate conditions harsher and more likely include large natural climate disasters. The health of the Australian economy is critically dependent on decisions of environmental managers. However, most problems of complexity arising in climate change involve issues on which we do not possess a deep understanding. This project draws upon a set of inter-disciplinary concepts and models centred in neural networks that enable us to advance our understanding of complexity, leading to superior quantitative tools and models to allow for improved environmental decision-making.
Read moreRead less
Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in th ....Investment approaches and opportunities in renewable energy and financial resource markets, using semi-parametric approaches to evolutionary subset time-series lattice-ladder modelling. The project findings will help Australian exporters and importers understand and manage energy and resource price risks more effectively. The investment community will benefit through selecting optimal asset allocations and enhancing value to investors. It will also benefit many other agencies, particularly in the service industries. It is not well recognised that in developed countries, including Australia, the financial service and related sectors account for more than 60 percent of economic activity and employment, so it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial service and related sectors.Read moreRead less
The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormou ....The improvement of investment approaches by developing and applying bootstrap methods to innovative evolutionary kernel-based subset time-series modelling. With over $1 trillion of investors' monies in the hands of fund managers, the importance of efficient investment decisions across all industry sectors is self evident. Even if the modest target of systematically improving decision making by 1 or 2 % is set, the aggregate economic benefit achieved, given the compounding effects will be enormous. Any developed or developing country will profit from such advanced decision-making approaches. Therefore it is critical that more sophisticated statistical methods be established, and practical applications conducted, in order to advance the understanding of complexity management in the financial investment and other relevant sectors.Read moreRead less
Unifying Modern Approaches in Machine Learning. The proposed research will lead to better algorithms for some important machine learning problems that could lead to better tools for extracting useful knowledge from data such as in bioinformatics and sensor networks; it will strengthen an international collaboration with one of the world's top centres of machine learning research; it will contribute to an open source toolkit of machine learning algorithms which will put Australia on the map as a ....Unifying Modern Approaches in Machine Learning. The proposed research will lead to better algorithms for some important machine learning problems that could lead to better tools for extracting useful knowledge from data such as in bioinformatics and sensor networks; it will strengthen an international collaboration with one of the world's top centres of machine learning research; it will contribute to an open source toolkit of machine learning algorithms which will put Australia on the map as a provider of sophisticated machine learning software; it will provide training opportunities for several PhD students and a postdoc to work with some of the best machine learning researchers in the world.Read moreRead less
The Mathematical and Philosophical Foundations of Probability. We find probability wherever we find uncertainty: virtually everywhere in our lives. Probability is essential to almost every technology. High-stakes decisions are routinely made on the basis of probability judgments and risk assessment-for example, in engineering, medicine, agriculture, environmental management, urban planning, public policy, public health, the law, and in our national defence. And some of those decisions have been ....The Mathematical and Philosophical Foundations of Probability. We find probability wherever we find uncertainty: virtually everywhere in our lives. Probability is essential to almost every technology. High-stakes decisions are routinely made on the basis of probability judgments and risk assessment-for example, in engineering, medicine, agriculture, environmental management, urban planning, public policy, public health, the law, and in our national defence. And some of those decisions have been made badly because of poor probability estimates-witness the 1986 space shuttle disaster. Our current methodologies for using probability are inadequate. This project will make an important contribution to the collective enterprise of enhancing our understanding of probability and its myriad applications.Read moreRead less
Reasons and Rationality. The project explains how we assess the truth and falsehood of everyday claims about what people have reason to do. It also explains what legitimizes our practice of praising and blaming people for their success and failure at doing what we think they have reason to do. In so doing it provides a foundation for both our ordinary practice of holding people responsible, and for the more institutionalised counterpart of this ordinary practice in the law.
Increasing internet energy and cost efficiency by improving higher-layer protocols. Australians rely heavily on our telecommunications infrastructure due to our geographic dispersion. We are also very susceptible to climate change, given our reliance on agriculture. Information technology is consuming a rapidly increasing fraction of our power and our budget. This research will help to reverse both those trends, by finding novel and practical ways to use our infrastructure more efficiently, and ....Increasing internet energy and cost efficiency by improving higher-layer protocols. Australians rely heavily on our telecommunications infrastructure due to our geographic dispersion. We are also very susceptible to climate change, given our reliance on agriculture. Information technology is consuming a rapidly increasing fraction of our power and our budget. This research will help to reverse both those trends, by finding novel and practical ways to use our infrastructure more efficiently, and to minimise its energy use. This will enable the Australian telecommunications industry to provide better service (including to Australian industries and rural communities) at lower economic and environmental cost. This project will put Australia on the international stage as a leading contributor to energy-efficient internet technology.Read moreRead less
The Structure of Moral Reasoning: Hume, Kant and the Evidence from Psychopathology and Neuroscience. What can moral philosophers hope to learn from the sciences of the mind? Recent work on the disorders of autism and psychopathy, has promised to reshape a longstanding philosophical debate between Kantians and Humeans on the role of empathy (sympathy) in moral thinking. This project will draw out the implications of a range of neuroscientific findings for key questions in moral theory and also co ....The Structure of Moral Reasoning: Hume, Kant and the Evidence from Psychopathology and Neuroscience. What can moral philosophers hope to learn from the sciences of the mind? Recent work on the disorders of autism and psychopathy, has promised to reshape a longstanding philosophical debate between Kantians and Humeans on the role of empathy (sympathy) in moral thinking. This project will draw out the implications of a range of neuroscientific findings for key questions in moral theory and also consider how the normative and conceptual claims made by such theories, about what must be true of a moral judgment, are connected to descriptive claims about the psychology of the moral agents who make them.Read moreRead less