Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
New methods for modelling complex trends in climate and energy time series. The project aims to contribute to Australian and international efforts on emission control by advancing the methods for quantifying the relationships between energy production, emission and climate, and assessing the real and financial risks associated with changing the ways in which economies produce and use energy. The project is interdisciplinary and expects to develop new knowledge in the areas of energy and climate ....New methods for modelling complex trends in climate and energy time series. The project aims to contribute to Australian and international efforts on emission control by advancing the methods for quantifying the relationships between energy production, emission and climate, and assessing the real and financial risks associated with changing the ways in which economies produce and use energy. The project is interdisciplinary and expects to develop new knowledge in the areas of energy and climate econometrics. The anticipated outcomes of this project are new methods for modelling variables with complex trends, and an innovative data-driven approach for learning from policy experiences of other countries. This should provide significant benefits by enabling evidence-based policy making in the era of climate change. Read moreRead less
Statistical Analysis of State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers. This project aims to provide a new statistical analysis of the government spending multiplier by acknowledging that government spending is the sum of sectoral spending which has heterogeneous effects on the economy. An added complication is that the multiplier can also be state-dependent, meaning that its magnitude can differ across recessions and expansions. Expected outcomes of this project include a better understanding ....Statistical Analysis of State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers. This project aims to provide a new statistical analysis of the government spending multiplier by acknowledging that government spending is the sum of sectoral spending which has heterogeneous effects on the economy. An added complication is that the multiplier can also be state-dependent, meaning that its magnitude can differ across recessions and expansions. Expected outcomes of this project include a better understanding of the components of the multiplier by novel decomposition and the development of a new statistical test for the state-dependency of the multiplier. This should provide significant benefits to researchers by bringing in new tools and insights and to policymakers by providing timely guidance on fiscal policies.Read moreRead less