Uncertainty, Risk and Related Concepts in Machine Learning. Machine learning is the science of making sense of data. It does not and cannot remove all risk and uncertainty. This project proposes to study the foundations of how machine learning uses, represents and communicates risk and uncertainty. It aims to do so by finding new theoretical connections between diverse notions that have arisen in allied disciplines. These include risk, uncertainty, scoring rules and loss functions, divergences, ....Uncertainty, Risk and Related Concepts in Machine Learning. Machine learning is the science of making sense of data. It does not and cannot remove all risk and uncertainty. This project proposes to study the foundations of how machine learning uses, represents and communicates risk and uncertainty. It aims to do so by finding new theoretical connections between diverse notions that have arisen in allied disciplines. These include risk, uncertainty, scoring rules and loss functions, divergences, statistics and different ways of aggregating information. By building a more complete theoretical map it is expected that new machine learning methods will be developed, but more importantly that machine learning will be able to be better integrated into larger socio-technical systems.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE170101134
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$360,000.00
Summary
Feasible algorithms for big inference. This project aims to develop algorithms for computationally-intensive statistical tools to analyse Big Data. Big Data is ubiquitous in science, engineering, industry and finance, but needs special machine learning to conduct correct inferential analysis. Computational bottlenecks make many tried-and-true tools of statistical inference inadequate. This project will develop tools including false discovery rate control, heteroscedastic and robust regression an ....Feasible algorithms for big inference. This project aims to develop algorithms for computationally-intensive statistical tools to analyse Big Data. Big Data is ubiquitous in science, engineering, industry and finance, but needs special machine learning to conduct correct inferential analysis. Computational bottlenecks make many tried-and-true tools of statistical inference inadequate. This project will develop tools including false discovery rate control, heteroscedastic and robust regression and mixture models, via Big Data-appropriate optimisation and composite-likelihood estimation. It will make open, well-documented, and accessible software available for the scalable and distributable analysis of Big Data. The expected outcome is a suite of scalable algorithms to analyse Big Data.Read moreRead less
Theoretical Foundations of Ethical Machine Learning. The project aims to develop a systematic theory of ethical machine learning. Machine learning is a powerful and pervasive technology that is already having a huge impact on Australia. When applied to data about people there are a range of ethical harms that can arise (fairness, and privacy are two of them). The project aims to develop a rigorously grounded foundation for managing such ethical harms. For example it will allow the quantification ....Theoretical Foundations of Ethical Machine Learning. The project aims to develop a systematic theory of ethical machine learning. Machine learning is a powerful and pervasive technology that is already having a huge impact on Australia. When applied to data about people there are a range of ethical harms that can arise (fairness, and privacy are two of them). The project aims to develop a rigorously grounded foundation for managing such ethical harms. For example it will allow the quantification of the inevitable trade-offs between fairness and utility. The benefits of the project should include better ways of managing these trade-offs, a competitive advantage for Australian firms developing the technology, and will ensure that the country retains a social license to use the technology.Read moreRead less
Rating and ranking sports players and teams using minimum message length. All sorts of games and sports could use better systems for rating and ranking teams. This is as true in sports-mad Australia as any other country. Improved and more accessible rating systems across a variety of activities should encourage the general public to take a greater interest in the mathematics, statistics, information theory and machine learning behind the systems. With Cadability as our Australia-based interna ....Rating and ranking sports players and teams using minimum message length. All sorts of games and sports could use better systems for rating and ranking teams. This is as true in sports-mad Australia as any other country. Improved and more accessible rating systems across a variety of activities should encourage the general public to take a greater interest in the mathematics, statistics, information theory and machine learning behind the systems. With Cadability as our Australia-based international industry partner, the global use of these systems will be to Australia's economic advantage. Having a more accurate rating system which is wider-reaching both in the number of sports and games and the number of participants per sport and game should also encourage greater participation from the general public.Read moreRead less
Efficient Estimation of Statistical Models with Many Parameters. Statistical models are used extensively in business, engineering and the sciences to describe the behavior of systems subject to uncertainty. There are often many unknowns in such models and relatively little data to estimate them. The object of the research is to develop methods that make these statistical models practical to use. The research team will apply the methodology to solve problems in economics, finance, marketing and t ....Efficient Estimation of Statistical Models with Many Parameters. Statistical models are used extensively in business, engineering and the sciences to describe the behavior of systems subject to uncertainty. There are often many unknowns in such models and relatively little data to estimate them. The object of the research is to develop methods that make these statistical models practical to use. The research team will apply the methodology to solve problems in economics, finance, marketing and the analysis of gene expression data. The project will also train doctoral and postdoctoral students and enhance Australia's reputation for research excellence in the Statistical and Mathematical Sciences. Read moreRead less
Bayesian estimation of flexible spatial models with applications in medical imaging and econometric modeling. This project aims to develop statistical methodology for estimating flexible highly parameterised Bayesian spatial models. The flexible models examined will include regression, choice and time series models for data that is spatially registered. Spatial smoothing of parameters in the models will involve application of hierarchical spatial prior distributions. The resulting methodology wi ....Bayesian estimation of flexible spatial models with applications in medical imaging and econometric modeling. This project aims to develop statistical methodology for estimating flexible highly parameterised Bayesian spatial models. The flexible models examined will include regression, choice and time series models for data that is spatially registered. Spatial smoothing of parameters in the models will involve application of hierarchical spatial prior distributions. The resulting methodology will be applied to the analysis of medical imaging data and to the estimation of spatial econometric models of residential real estate prices. The expected outcomes include developments in the frontier framework of Bayesian computational estimation methodology, improved methods for medical image processing and estimation of high resolution spatial models of residential real estate prices in Australian metropolitan centres.Read moreRead less
Machine learning in adversarial environments. Machine learning underpins the technologies driving the economies of both Silicon Valley and Wall Street, from web search and ad placement, to stock predictions and efforts in fighting cybercrime. This project aims to answer the question: How can machines learn from data when contributors act maliciously for personal gain?
Estimation and Inference in Weakly Identified Models. Economic and social systems are made up of interacting components leading to complex structures that are difficult to predict and manage. Consequently policy analysis and decision-making must be informed by statistical analysis of data. In many situations the informational content of observations is minimal; examples of such situations are found in the areas of education, health, finance and various aspects of macroeconomic analysis. This pro ....Estimation and Inference in Weakly Identified Models. Economic and social systems are made up of interacting components leading to complex structures that are difficult to predict and manage. Consequently policy analysis and decision-making must be informed by statistical analysis of data. In many situations the informational content of observations is minimal; examples of such situations are found in the areas of education, health, finance and various aspects of macroeconomic analysis. This project aims to develop methods of estimation and inference that make more efficient use of the information available in data. This will lead to more precise statistical analyses, resulting in a clearer understanding of economic and social systems, and better informed policy analysis and decision-making.Read moreRead less
Asymptotics in non-linear cointegrating regression: theory and applications. This project provides fundamental research in statistics, econometrics and probability. The results on martingales and nonlinear functionals of integrated stochastic processes will apply to a range of statistical, empirical finance and economic models.
Non-linear cointegrating regression with endogeneity. This project aims to develop the asymptotic theory of estimation and statistical inference in models concerned with non-linear co-integrating regression with endogeneity and long memory. This project will tackle a number of long-standing technical problems related to non-linear covariance functionals and non-linear transformation of nonstationary time series. This project is intended to provide technical tools for practitioners to study the l ....Non-linear cointegrating regression with endogeneity. This project aims to develop the asymptotic theory of estimation and statistical inference in models concerned with non-linear co-integrating regression with endogeneity and long memory. This project will tackle a number of long-standing technical problems related to non-linear covariance functionals and non-linear transformation of nonstationary time series. This project is intended to provide technical tools for practitioners to study the long-run relationship of economic variables, and could apply to a range of statistical, empirical finance and economic models, enhancing national leadership in these areas.Read moreRead less