Should rational individuals be optimistic? Theory, survey evidence, experimental evidence, and policy implications. This project will help Australian policy makers design better information-revelation policies and will elevate the skill level of Australian research in behavioural economics. Insights we generate about how best to manage the public's expectations will enable policy design that strengthens Australia's social and economic fabric. We will disseminate the recommendations we generate ....Should rational individuals be optimistic? Theory, survey evidence, experimental evidence, and policy implications. This project will help Australian policy makers design better information-revelation policies and will elevate the skill level of Australian research in behavioural economics. Insights we generate about how best to manage the public's expectations will enable policy design that strengthens Australia's social and economic fabric. We will disseminate the recommendations we generate in a policy workshop at the end of our project. In terms of benefits to the level of science in Australia, the project will work with local data and local researchers, and will import into Australia new experimental medical equipment and the knowledge of how to use it. These benefits will help Australia progress to the forefront of behavioural economic research.Read moreRead less
Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The primary objective of this project is to develop efficient algorithms for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated and exact maximum likelihood. The research will draw on both parametric and non-parametric analysis in novel ways to construct estimation procedures that are computationally feasible. These methods will then be applied in the area of finance and used to ....Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The primary objective of this project is to develop efficient algorithms for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated and exact maximum likelihood. The research will draw on both parametric and non-parametric analysis in novel ways to construct estimation procedures that are computationally feasible. These methods will then be applied in the area of finance and used to estimate the parameters of stochastic-volatility models, thus contributing to knowledge in a prominent area of complex systems, namely financial risk. The execution of this collaborative project will deliver quality research training in the topical area of mathematical finance and produce high-calibre postgraduates.
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Advertising and Drinking: Does it Matter? The Health profession and various community groups have been demanding the government introduce new alcohol advertising policies that aim to reduce the social cost and misery associated with the misuse of alcohol (estimated to cost Australians about $8 billion, cause about 3,300 deaths and 72,000 hospitalisations annually) and to maintain the health and future well-being of Australians. This project will assess the impact of current advertising policies ....Advertising and Drinking: Does it Matter? The Health profession and various community groups have been demanding the government introduce new alcohol advertising policies that aim to reduce the social cost and misery associated with the misuse of alcohol (estimated to cost Australians about $8 billion, cause about 3,300 deaths and 72,000 hospitalisations annually) and to maintain the health and future well-being of Australians. This project will assess the impact of current advertising policies and the impact of a possible ban on alcohol advertising on the level of alcohol consumption in Australia. The results will be useful to the Australian government, the Australian community and the alcohol industry in developing new advertising policies that aim to reduce alcohol consumption.Read moreRead less
Measuring the Commercial Real Estate Sector in Australia. This project aims to address a significant gap in our understanding of the Australian commercial real estate sector. It will use detailed data to develop sophisticated models of the prices of commercial buildings. Expected outcomes include a suite of commercial real estate price indexes for Australia, by region and property type, and a comprehensive and transparent examination of the methods used to construct them. This will shed light on ....Measuring the Commercial Real Estate Sector in Australia. This project aims to address a significant gap in our understanding of the Australian commercial real estate sector. It will use detailed data to develop sophisticated models of the prices of commercial buildings. Expected outcomes include a suite of commercial real estate price indexes for Australia, by region and property type, and a comprehensive and transparent examination of the methods used to construct them. This will shed light on a hitherto poorly measured sector and provide significant benefits by better informing market participants, guiding statistical agencies in developing such measures and better-enabling policymakers, banks, superfunds and macroprudential authorities to understand the risk profile of the sector.Read moreRead less
Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks. Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are ....Understanding macroeconomic fluctuations with unobserved networks. Whilst empirical evidence suggests that firm-level shocks can have large aggregate effects, via network connections, macroeconomic policies have mostly an aggregate nature. This project aims to build a new framework to disentangle aggregate shocks from shocks to individual units. The major innovations are i) to infer the network from the data and ii) to jointly estimate aggregate factors and network effects. Expected outcomes are i) measures of systemic risk and ii) a theoretical framework to study the optimality of aggregate versus sectoral stabilization policies. Benefits include a better understanding of macroeconomic fluctuations in Australia and proposed economic policies to mitigate large and persistent declines in employment and GDP.Read moreRead less
The Sustainability of Agricultural Productivity Growth in a Changing Environment: An International Perspective. The project could provide significant benefits to Australia. Australia is a dry continent with fragile natural resources, and a significant exporter of agricultural products. A sound knowledge of the factors that affect agricultural sustainability is crucial. Perhaps more importantly, identifying economic, environmental, social, institutional and political factors that influence agric ....The Sustainability of Agricultural Productivity Growth in a Changing Environment: An International Perspective. The project could provide significant benefits to Australia. Australia is a dry continent with fragile natural resources, and a significant exporter of agricultural products. A sound knowledge of the factors that affect agricultural sustainability is crucial. Perhaps more importantly, identifying economic, environmental, social, institutional and political factors that influence agricultural sustainability in other countries, especially our Asian neighbours, will provide valuable information to relevant agencies in designing strategies aimed at ensuring that these countries are stable and well fed. This is of particular importance in the current climate, with growing influences of terrorist organisations in places where poverty exists.Read moreRead less
Technology Transforming Markets: Large-Scale Field Experiments in Electricity Use. Advances in information technology are transforming electricity markets. Victoria is rolling out ‘smart’ meters, which record half-hourly consumption data. Some retailers also provide web portals that facilitate customer access to this information. Together with an innovative start-up company, this project aims to use large-scale field experiments to evaluate the impact of these technologies on how consumers: use ....Technology Transforming Markets: Large-Scale Field Experiments in Electricity Use. Advances in information technology are transforming electricity markets. Victoria is rolling out ‘smart’ meters, which record half-hourly consumption data. Some retailers also provide web portals that facilitate customer access to this information. Together with an innovative start-up company, this project aims to use large-scale field experiments to evaluate the impact of these technologies on how consumers: use electricity; opt for new pricing plans; and switch retailers. The aims have important implications for environmental policies designed to conserve energy, for consumer choice and welfare, and for retail market competitiveness.Read moreRead less
Informing economic policies to enhance an efficient and sustainable use of water resources in a context of high uncertainty on future climate. The main purpose of this project is to assess how economic instruments can be used to improve water resources management in a context of uncertainty and climate change.
Sustainable reform of the Murray-Darling system: Property rights, uncertainty and institutions. The project will develop tools for the modelling of uncertainty in the absence of probabilities and with imperfect knowledge about possible events. It will also formalise and assess the precautionary principle for the sustainable management of complex systems. Finally, the project will apply these tools to analyse and improve policies for the reform of property rights, institutions and land and water ....Sustainable reform of the Murray-Darling system: Property rights, uncertainty and institutions. The project will develop tools for the modelling of uncertainty in the absence of probabilities and with imperfect knowledge about possible events. It will also formalise and assess the precautionary principle for the sustainable management of complex systems. Finally, the project will apply these tools to analyse and improve policies for the reform of property rights, institutions and land and water management in the Murray?Darling system. The project will assist in the formulation of sustainable responses to problems of drought and irrigation related salinity in the Murray?Darling system.Read moreRead less