High-frequency Estimation of Term Structure Models at the Zero Lower Bound. This project aims to quantify monetary policy shocks as shifts of the entire term structure of interest rates, when the central bank’s policy rate is constrained at the near-zero level. The proposed method will use a high-dimensional panel of high frequency government bond data. The term structure and resultant policy shocks estimated at intra-day frequencies for major economies including Australia, will be made publicly ....High-frequency Estimation of Term Structure Models at the Zero Lower Bound. This project aims to quantify monetary policy shocks as shifts of the entire term structure of interest rates, when the central bank’s policy rate is constrained at the near-zero level. The proposed method will use a high-dimensional panel of high frequency government bond data. The term structure and resultant policy shocks estimated at intra-day frequencies for major economies including Australia, will be made publicly available. This project expects to deepen our understanding of how monetary policy decisions affect the macroeconomy in a near-zero interest-rate environment. This should provide significant benefits to policymakers for implementing and monitoring monetary policy in achieving desired economic outcomes.Read moreRead less
Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less
Measuring the effect of monetary policy on the economy. This project aims to measure the effect of monetary policy on the economy, notably consumption and investment, in Australia and the US. This research intends to fill a gap in the empirical macroeconomic literature, which focuses on the supply side of the economy. This project will account for unstable economic conditions caused by institutional or behavioural changes, such as financial development / liberalisation and preference shocks, in ....Measuring the effect of monetary policy on the economy. This project aims to measure the effect of monetary policy on the economy, notably consumption and investment, in Australia and the US. This research intends to fill a gap in the empirical macroeconomic literature, which focuses on the supply side of the economy. This project will account for unstable economic conditions caused by institutional or behavioural changes, such as financial development / liberalisation and preference shocks, in the analysis; and develop econometric methods tailored for application to models with time varying parameters. This project expects to contribute to understanding the economy’s recent unresponsiveness to monetary policy.Read moreRead less
Macroeconomic and Financial Modelling in an Era of Extremes. This project aims to develop methods to allow workhorse models in economics and finance to better reflect tail events--low probability extreme events, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to address fundamental technical challenges in the estimation of such models, develop a coherent framework for counterfactual analysis of these models and propose methods to apply these models in a big-data environ ....Macroeconomic and Financial Modelling in an Era of Extremes. This project aims to develop methods to allow workhorse models in economics and finance to better reflect tail events--low probability extreme events, such as the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. It intends to address fundamental technical challenges in the estimation of such models, develop a coherent framework for counterfactual analysis of these models and propose methods to apply these models in a big-data environment. Expected outcomes include new insights into the transmission of tail risks in the global economic and financial system. This should provide significant benefits, including guidance to Australian and international policymakers charged with maintaining stability in the face of extreme events.Read moreRead less
Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It wil ....Productivity, growth and unemployment in economies with frictions. This project aims to examine decisions driving productivity, growth, and unemployment in macroeconomies with frictions. It examines how government (fiscal, monetary, and education) policies determine these decisions, and identifies the best configurations of these policies. It will construct dynamic general equilibrium models of economies to analyse the causal structure behind productivity changes, growth and unemployment. It will conduct quantitative experiments using simulations, to estimate optimal government policy design settings. This project expects to identify policies that promote productivity, growth and employment.Read moreRead less
Banking System Competition and the Macro-economy. Australia has one of the most concentrated banking sectors in the world, generating concerns regarding its efficiency. This project aims to develop unified frameworks to understand and evaluate quantitatively how the structure of the banking industry affects the macro-economy and provide policy recommendations for establishing a healthy and efficient banking industry. This project expects to improve understanding of the welfare trade-off between ....Banking System Competition and the Macro-economy. Australia has one of the most concentrated banking sectors in the world, generating concerns regarding its efficiency. This project aims to develop unified frameworks to understand and evaluate quantitatively how the structure of the banking industry affects the macro-economy and provide policy recommendations for establishing a healthy and efficient banking industry. This project expects to improve understanding of the welfare trade-off between bank competition and economic well-being to enable policymakers to better determine the optimal concentration of banking sector in Australia. This will enhance the productivity and international competitiveness of Australia’s financial system and the broader economy.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE210100137
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$347,889.00
Summary
Global Economic Uncertainty, Liquidity and Monetary Policy in Australia. This project aims to analyse the impact of global trade and financial uncertainty on the Australian economy and provide quantifiable policy prescriptions. This project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of monetary and macroeconomic policy using an innovative approach with search and matching frictions, to formalise how investors respond to higher uncertainty given their liquidity requirements. The intended outco ....Global Economic Uncertainty, Liquidity and Monetary Policy in Australia. This project aims to analyse the impact of global trade and financial uncertainty on the Australian economy and provide quantifiable policy prescriptions. This project expects to generate new knowledge in the area of monetary and macroeconomic policy using an innovative approach with search and matching frictions, to formalise how investors respond to higher uncertainty given their liquidity requirements. The intended outcomes of the project include offering a new theory with the potential to guide future research and novel quantitative application to Australian macroeconomic data. This should provide significant insights for institutions such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and benefits through the design of policy.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE230100029
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$345,197.00
Summary
Variational Inference for Intractable and Misspecified State Space Models. State space models (SSMs) are popularly used to model economic variables such as inflation and financial volatility. Variational inference is a technique that allows for fast implementation of SSMs, but whose properties are yet to be understood. This project aims to study the properties of variational inference for SSMs used in economics.
This research will develop new variational inference techniques to improve inferent ....Variational Inference for Intractable and Misspecified State Space Models. State space models (SSMs) are popularly used to model economic variables such as inflation and financial volatility. Variational inference is a technique that allows for fast implementation of SSMs, but whose properties are yet to be understood. This project aims to study the properties of variational inference for SSMs used in economics.
This research will develop new variational inference techniques to improve inferential and predictive accuracy from SSMs. An expected implication of this project is that it will expand the ability of economic institutions to employ larger SSMs, which will allow for more accurate models for economic variables. This will provide significant social benefits by leading to better informed economic policy.
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Monetary policy, redistribution and endogenous asset market incompleteness. This project aims to provide a new framework for modelling agent heterogeneity and for evaluating the effects of monetary policy on aggregate welfare and wealth distribution over the business cycle. This project will focus on monetary policy, using new quantitative theories with new efficient computational methods, to understand and quantify links between monetary policy the dynamics of aggregate outcomes (such as inflat ....Monetary policy, redistribution and endogenous asset market incompleteness. This project aims to provide a new framework for modelling agent heterogeneity and for evaluating the effects of monetary policy on aggregate welfare and wealth distribution over the business cycle. This project will focus on monetary policy, using new quantitative theories with new efficient computational methods, to understand and quantify links between monetary policy the dynamics of aggregate outcomes (such as inflation or employment), and the distribution of individual wealth (such as money, capital and housing).Read moreRead less
Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a sec ....Closing the Gap Between Theory and Data in Macroeconometrics. This project aims to bring econometric models (the empirical vehicle for inference) and economic models (the theory) closer together. A new model is intended to be proposed that will address a significant issue with the interpretation of the outputs of the econometric models. As a first contribution, the project is expected to develop the model and an inferential framework for this model using probability theory on manifolds. In a second contribution, it is expected to construct an algorithm to permit inference leading to outputs useful to policy analysts. The model is intended to be parsimonious, which facilitates the development of a time-varying version to allow the model to evolve with the economy and provide better policy guidance.Read moreRead less