ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade. The ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and Korea) free trade agreement endorsed by ASEAN Leaders in 2001 poses a serious trade diversion threat to Australia's goods and services trade to ASEAN and North Asia (reaching $33.9b and $85.0b respectively in 2001, see DFAT 2003). No research on this has been done or reported. The project, with Vietnam Institute for Trade collaboration, uses new analytical and empirical approaches to investigate ....ASEAN+3 Free Trade Agreement and Its Impact on Australia-Vietnam Trade. The ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and Korea) free trade agreement endorsed by ASEAN Leaders in 2001 poses a serious trade diversion threat to Australia's goods and services trade to ASEAN and North Asia (reaching $33.9b and $85.0b respectively in 2001, see DFAT 2003). No research on this has been done or reported. The project, with Vietnam Institute for Trade collaboration, uses new analytical and empirical approaches to investigate this FTA and its implications to Australia's trade to a major ASEAN country, namely Vietnam, where 2002 trade reached $2.8b and Australia's global companies (eg. ANZ, Telstra, RMIT) currently have large operation.Read moreRead less
Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessmen ....Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessment of the distributional impact of a wide range of possible reforms, including how the outcomes of any policy change will affect disadvantaged sections of our society, whether different generations will be fairly treated, and the impact by gender.Read moreRead less
Regional Comparisons of Prices, Income and Growth in Australia. We will measure how much the cost of living and rates of inflation differ across the eight capital cities in Australia, and then test whether real per capita income levels across cities are converging or diverging over time. To make such comparisons, the ABS's databases on each capital city must first be harmonized. While doing this we will review the ABS's current procedures for data construction and quality assessment. A further a ....Regional Comparisons of Prices, Income and Growth in Australia. We will measure how much the cost of living and rates of inflation differ across the eight capital cities in Australia, and then test whether real per capita income levels across cities are converging or diverging over time. To make such comparisons, the ABS's databases on each capital city must first be harmonized. While doing this we will review the ABS's current procedures for data construction and quality assessment. A further aim is to show how statistical modelling using spanning-tree methods can resolve the conflict that arises for price indexes constructed on panel data sets between temporal and spatial consistency.Read moreRead less
Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in ....Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.Read moreRead less
Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the ec ....Nowcasting and Interpreting the Australian Economy. This project aims to investigate methods for nowcasting and interpreting the Australian economy. This is determining the current state of the economy and the factors contributing to it.
This project expects to generate new knowledge on how unconventional, new, data sources and innovative methods can be used to in nowcasting and how the Australian economy can be modelled.
The expected outcomes include timely new indicators of the state of the economy, and the factors contributing to it. This should provide significant benefits through informing the conduct of Australian macroeconomic policy, as the appropriate policy response depends not only on knowing the current state of the economy but understanding the economic factors underlying it.
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Massively parallel algorithms for Bayesian inference and decision making. This project uses the graphical processing units of desktop computers, originally developed for games and video, to enhance substantially the quantitative tools used on a daily basis by economists. It will develop procedures and software to enhance the reliability of economic predictions and policy.
Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater pre ....Helping Central Banks Measure Unobserved Variables Using Real-time Forecasts. The project addresses structural measurement problems confronted routinely by central bankers. The techniques developed, and the estimates provided, will aid directly the Partner Organisations (the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank) and other central banks in formulating monetary policy. The analysis will allow interest rates in Australia and elsewhere to be set with greater precision. The techniques developed in this project will facilitate the understanding and communication of monetary policy within the central banks concerned, and enhance communication of monetary policy strategy to the public.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE170100787
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$331,000.00
Summary
Misspecification in models of economic behaviour. This project aims to develop a robust method for estimation and inference with misspecified economic models. Economic models are designed to test hypotheses about economic behaviour and to estimate key parameters, but their validity and accuracy critically depend on the assumption that the model is correctly specified, which is often doubtful. This project will reparametrize the model to allow for misspecification. The project aims to help modell ....Misspecification in models of economic behaviour. This project aims to develop a robust method for estimation and inference with misspecified economic models. Economic models are designed to test hypotheses about economic behaviour and to estimate key parameters, but their validity and accuracy critically depend on the assumption that the model is correctly specified, which is often doubtful. This project will reparametrize the model to allow for misspecification. The project aims to help modellers produce results that better inform decision-makers and help them make more reliable decisions.Read moreRead less
Estimating and evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural macroeconomic models. This project will provide improved methods to inform Australia's macroeconomic policies and its strategies for economic development by suggesting the most adequate structural macroeconomic model for the Australian economy. Effective macroeconomic policies, in turn, assure stable economic development, smoothes effects of economic cycles and balances inflation, unemployment, the exchange rate and other macroecono ....Estimating and evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural macroeconomic models. This project will provide improved methods to inform Australia's macroeconomic policies and its strategies for economic development by suggesting the most adequate structural macroeconomic model for the Australian economy. Effective macroeconomic policies, in turn, assure stable economic development, smoothes effects of economic cycles and balances inflation, unemployment, the exchange rate and other macroeconomic indicators. All these indicators are closely linked to the welfare of the Australian people and prosperity of the Australian economy. The importance of an accurate macroeconomic analysis is increased in the current condition of inflationary pressures, fiscal challenges, climate change, and world market instabilities.Read moreRead less
Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists ....Large dynamic time-varying models for structural macroeconomic inference. This project aims to broaden the range of macroeconomic models that have an integrated capacity for both greater realism and efficiency in analysis. This approach will be applied to two contexts at the forefront of current macroeconomic research, the effects of noisy productivity signals on business cycles and the effects of fiscal policy shocks. Flexible macro-econometric models underpin accurate inference by economists and policymakers and the project outputs should provide widespread and significant benefits by improving policy and boosting Australia’s comparative advantage.Read moreRead less